We’ll see…I agree that has usually been what happens but 3 weeks in to league play and the top 4 teams have yet to lose any to the bottom 5. There’s bound be an upset at some point but may not be many. And so far the bottom 5 have mostly beat up on each other, LMU is 2-3 and the only team to not lose yet to one of the other bottom 5; they may have the best chance to emerge.
But consider this…let’s say LMU goes 7-1 against the other bottom 4 teams; they still have to upset one of the Top 4 teams just to get to 8-8 overall. Meanwhile…let’s say the Broncos go 9-1 vs. the bottom 5, split with USF and lose out on the road to SMC and GU…that puts them at 11-5 and with a three game gap between 4th place and 5th if someone like LMU finishes 8-8.
Current WCC NET and Torvik rankings:
SMC- NET: 22 / Torvik: 13
GU- 30 / 21
USF- 54 / 75
SCU- 113 / 132
LMU- 180 / 159
Pepp- 236 / 231
USD- 259 / 261
Portland- 301 / 289
Pacific- 357 / 354
Any insight as to whether the NCAA Selection Committee values NET or Torvik more?
Definitely NET, as it’s an NCAA-run ranking system.
I’m not terribly surprised by the USF result. USF has been demolishing bad teams and losing to every good one they’ve played. USF might be better than SCU, but it’s a lot closer to a coin flip than what the analytics are suggesting. My guess is that by season’s end, both SCU and USF land somewhere in the 80-100 range of the analytics. That said, Mogbo is awesome. I read some rumor that SCU was close to getting Mogbo. That sure would have helped the defense.
Going to have to sweep USF and be about a game or two better than them vs. everyone else in order to catch USF and get to the 80-90 NET range. Also need our non-con opponents as a whole to maintain where they are or trend upwards. Beating the Portlands of the world does nothing for you…our NET moved from 114 to 113 after the win.
Mogbo…Patty is spot on. Mogbo is quite talented and if his level of play holds and USF finishes in the top 3 or 4, Mogbo will be in the running for WCC MVP. He leads the league in rebounding (nearly 11/game), FG%, and Steals, is Top 5 in scoring and block shots. Plus over 3 assists a game which I’m fairly certain is tops by a long shot for WCC post players. He’s also a good FT shooter for a post at 75%.
And Torvik metrics love Mogbo, he’s currently tops in the league with a PPRG! at 5.0 with a big gap or drop to Anton Watson in 2nd at 3.8, then a half dozen guys in the 3.4 to 3.0 range. I’ve only watched portions of a couple of USF games but he’s an impressive, elite athlete. Seen him listed at both 6-8 and 6-9 and he’s definitely an above the rim player…to put it in perspective he has 56 dunks on the year, far more than any entire Team in the WCC (GU has 40, the Broncos 31). He will be a handful for Tilly or O’Neil, whoever gets the assignment.
Here’s a little game. The top 5 teams in the West Coast Conference have the following resumes. Match the team with the resume on the season (click the blurs to see the answers):
---------Quad 1—Quad 2—Quad 3—Quad 4
Team 1 — 0-4 ----- 0-1 ----- 2-0 ---- 11-0 San Francisco
Team 2 — 0-3 ----- 2-2 ----- 3-0 ----- 7-0 Gonzaga
Team 3 — 1-4 ----- 4-1 ------ 2-2 ---- 6-0 Santa Clara
Team 4 — 0-4 ----- 1-0 ----- 1-5 ----- 6-1 Loyola
Team 5 — 3-4 ----- 2-0 ----- 2-2 ----- 6-0 Saint Marys
Cal helped us out by getting themselves into Quad 2. So SCU only has two Quad 2 losses. The analytics still suck, and the eyeball test…well, that’s what we do on this board. But SCU has, pretty clearly, the second best resume in the conference to now. My only real point is that the OOC schedule was exactly what SCU needed for an at-large berth. But they needed to put away, at minimum, SJSU and Yale and probably finish off Utah State. Swing those three and we are having a very different conversation right now.
Good news. Gotta give credit to that program.
Guessing but I would say SCU is team 3, Gonzaga Team 2, St Marys team 5 and USF team 1. Team 4 a mystery but I will go with LMU. This is why I say what SCU team will show up, the one that Beat Gonzaga, Oregon, WSU, Stanford, or the one that lost to SJS, Cal, Yale and blown out by Ohio State, SMC, and New Mexico,
Those are our TOP five teams? This is one year we could really benefit from BYU.
Latest ESPN Bracketology, Gonzaga first team out, SMC #10 seed and only WCC team in. Pac 12 has 3 teams, Mountain West 5
Portland lost at home tonight to USD, 85-81. USD picks up their first conference win. The bottom 5 squads look horrid: 2 teams with 2 wins each, 2 teams with 1 win each, and 1 team is still 0-fer.
This Gonzaga-USF game is enlightening. Dons playing in Spokane and are really doing a nice job defensively. Watson is riding the bench with 2 fouls just 7 minutes into the game. Hard to believe that I’m rooting for arch-nemesis USF, but my hatred for Gonzaga runs deep.
And yes, Mogbo really is that good…I expect he’ll get drafted.
EDITED TO ADD: I really like watching these games with Dave Fleming and Sean Farnham doing the play-by-play and color analysis, respectively.
Also, they mentioned that USF hasn’t beaten Gonzaga in Spokane since 1989!
Halftime in Spokane: 31-30 Dons…
With 8ish minutes left in the game, USF and Gonzaga were knotted up at 48-48. Now, with just a couple minutes left, Zags are up 11. Ugh. Was really hoping for USF to knock them down a peg.
That turned around quickly. Was hoping for a USF victory and for Santa Clara to take down USF.
USF will have another chance to take down the Zags at home later this season.
USF actually started marking some shots and made things interesting fouling at the end. But Zags hold on in the end.
They’re playing their home game against Gonzaga at the Chase Center, which I think is a big mistake.
I wasn’t aware, yeah that is a horrible mistake. But I guess they want the bigger ticket and concession sales? Gonzaga is always a big draw.
Commentators were saying it actually hurts Gonzaga more. USF is #58 in NET right now. So moving it to a neutral venue actually changes it to a quad 2 game at the moment for the zags lol