Line: Torvik- Broncos +12, 16% win probability; ESPN- 19% win probability. Will be interesting to see the Vegas line because Torvik’s +12 doesn’t seem nearly enough.
Zags:
13-2 overall, 2-0 in WCC currently ranked #5 on NET and #1 on Torvik. They just thumped BYU 110-84 tonight…and is wasn’t that close, on the heels of scoring 117 vs. Pepp last Saturday. Safe to say the COVID shut down didn’t hurt them much as they seem to running like a well oiled machine. I won’t dive deep in to players or stats…I assume all here have seen them play a few times. Timme, Holmgren, Nembhard…a bunch of 5 star frosh…an embarrassment of riches.
I don’t see any position where we have a clear advantage…maybe Jalen over GU’s transfer shooting guard, Rasir Bolton, that’s about it…but then GU brings 2 elite, 5 star frosh guards off the bench as reinforcements in Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis.
We’re going to have to count on GU coming out flat (as they did last season in our game with them up in Spokane) and then hope our shots are falling and calls are going our way.
I just want our guys to compete, keep it respectable and stay healthy.
Quick check of Sagarin and Massey looks pretty similar to Torvik. Massey has it +11 and Sagarin +15 before home court…so around +11 also.
Can’t say I understand it either. Definitely need Pipes to start shooting better, and everyone else to keep shooting like they are to have a chance. Or Stewart to start and play like he did last game? Surely that has to happen at some point if Stewart keeps looking definitely better than Pipes. Stewart is the one you have to worry about keeping around anyway.
Having Bediako would be really nice for this game. Have heard nothing about if that is even 1% possible.
If not now then when? Herb is 6 years in. He has 3 super experienced seniors, a junior superstar, and a junior transfer (who is in his 4th year of D1) on the starting 5. Although Herb has a short rotation, the other few who get a chance to play are all worthy contributors. Seriously, is it ever going to get better for Herb than now? Unless he has a stable of quality grad/upper class transfers continually coming in SCU is going to continue to have more years looking like UOP than competing for a NCAA or NIT appearance.
That SCU “well-oiled machine” we saw against Stanford, Nevada, TCU could play with Gonzaga, but Sendek certainly hasn’t elevated this team since then. His non-contact man D drives me mad, but is likely rather welcome by opponents.
Seems like pretty much everyone is going to be in the boat of relying on transfers in the future. Quite a few programs already have. I don’t like it, I don’t think it is in keeping with the mission of the university or any 4-year school, but it’s the way it is going to be, by all indications.
And with NIL, it’s only going to get worse. Football is already absolutely insane (like a Mid-American conference school offering QB recruits 7 figures insane). With how much of a difference a single next-level player can make in a basketball team, it’s bound to impact eventually in hoops as well.
Not going to say I don’t want to see the team get to a higher level soon, but Dan Fitzgerald was the coach at Gonzaga for 11 years before his first 1st place finish. And even at that point they only had 1 NCAA appearance in the next 5 years. It wasn’t until Monson’s first year – year 20 since Fitzgerald’s first year – that they won both the regular season and the tournament.
From 1978-1991, Fitzgerald and the 4 years of Hillock netted an 88-93 record in the league. And yet Fitzgerald was still around to start the rise that has led to now.
And they didn’t have a Gonzaga in their way at the time. And it still took that long.
Hate to say it, but IMHO The ability of Coach Sendek etc to recruit may now have just begun with the opening of the AEC that better recruits will find impressive vs the embarrassing Leavey Catacombs.
Transfers may help us more than hurt. In any case as pointed out above, GU has a 25 year head start backed by GU administration that’s all in for MBB success and the reputation/ dollars it brings in.
No other WCC team faces the standards that SCU imposes on Athletics. Not saying we should bend, but face reality that we just won’t get players who aren’t academically strong while USF, GU, St. Mary’s will make those accommodations.
I remember seeing recently that USF announced construction plans for their new basketball practice facility. Slowly more and more schools will be following suit and realize what a new athletic center can do for development and recruiting. Sad we couldn’t get ours sooner.
Musings, a nice facility is a good thing, but if you think that has a heavy influence on recruits I think you’re sorely mistaken.
Sendek is in his 6th year and it’s not like he’s accomplished much of anything. To think that a nicer facility is going to change results is just wishful thinking.
If you are under the impression that the academic standards for athletes at SCU aren’t significantly lower that the rest of the student body, then you haven’t had an inside perspective (trust me I never would have been admitted to SCU on my academic merit).
A great out-of-home dining experience requires TWO key components: (1) quality ingredients and (2) a great kitchen, with a top-notch head chef and good assistants.
I think that the same goes for D-1 basketball. We have to get great talent to choose us over other options, and we need to have top-notch coaching. One without the other will not deliver the desired results. And, if success can be sustained for 4+ years, then each can reinforce the other in a positive feedback loop until a dynasty is formed. Gonzaga is a great example of this effect in play. Every year they have success (in the form of trips to the big dance and at least one victory when they get there), and every year they are able to reload. Mark Few, unlike Monson, realized that he had a great thing going and decided to stay, despite the offers from the P5 schools.
Many times I have wondered what the WCC would look like had USF not shut the program down in the wake of scandal back in the early 80s (IIRC).
I can’t seem to watch the damn game. I click the link and it says out of market only…I live in SoCal, how can I not be out of market? Weird. Looks like we are gonna get smoked anyway.
BYU gave up 61 in the first half. They’re probably the 2nd best team in the conference.
Just glad this Holmgren nonsense is a one shot deal. He does not belong anywhere near this league. College ball in general is probably a waste of time for him.
I’m deciding not to torture myself with this. Y’all have a good day, however you decide to spend it.
Our rim protection is so terrible on defense. I get that Gonzaga is a juggernaut and keeping this within 15 would be a great outcome but shouldn’t we at least mix up defenses as much as possible so they at least have to survey the court… and can’t score at will on us so quickly.
As an aside, glad to see Pipes get going in the final 5 minutes.
Restricted attendance numbers, yet all are sitting next to each other in the lower bowl. Don’t understand the reasoning or the sense behind at all. Not a good visual for expectant recruits
Pretty much confirms what most thought. We have a lot of offensive talent. Probably as much as anyone not named Gonzaga in the conference but when I watch us play something looks off defensively. Too many easy layups around the rim.
Fun watching the freshman play the last few minutes. They have a long way to go with their skill development but all of them play really hard.
Wow. That was rough. The worst part is that the team didn’t play that terribly. We haven’t played well all year with a slower pace, but that really is the only chance against the Zags to keep it close. Will be curious if St. Mary’s can keep the score down since they bleed the clock more than anybody in the league. Three straight games with 60 in the first half for the Zags is insane.
Casey Jacobsen and Roxy Bernstein on the call was solid. They do a good job imo.
