Conference Realignment

NCAA Tourney
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Thanks, Pickman! And yes, I think that ACC for football and WCC for everything else is probably the best remaining option for Cal and Stanford. The Big 10 is the best of all but seems to be foreclosed for now.

I’d want the WCC to try to bargain for basketball. I have a hunch that, if the ACC thing is real, Stanford/Cal are already planning to be negotiated down to just football. I doubt the other ACC institutions want to commit to travel for two more sports if the voting margin is really so thin. Cal would gain a lot by playing Duke in Men’s Basketball, but Duke gains nothing from that matchup and would have to send its team across the country in the middle of February to play at Haas. I don’t see that getting across the finish line.

And with basketball, I would think that the WCC would welcome both in a second. It would mollify the Zags somewhat, raise the prestige and non-basketball quality of the conference immensely and be a pretty good revenue generator with heightened local interest in the Bay Area (a la the Philly-5). And with football parked elsewhere, possibly until the ACC grant of rights is up in like 2036 (!!!), the biggest threat to WCC stability will be mitigated.

The name of the game is instability and change right now, but this is the outcome that I have my fingers crossed for.

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I hate to see the PAC 12 disintegrate but since it has I do think that if Stanford and Cal can find a football only option, then the WCC for all other sports would be a nice fit. On pure size Cal is not a fit but we gave successfully competed with them in most sports. It would certainly benefit the Bay Area sports scene for SCU, USF and SMC to be playing with the big boys as far as the newspapers are concerned. Basketball, baseball, and soccer would really be in a major conference or high mid-major. I just hope all these moves for the almighty dollar don’t destroy college sports. GO BRONCOS!!!

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Outside of SMC bball, I think all 5 would massively benefit in in-person attendance and $. It’s nothing compared to what Stanford is losing in football $ obviously, but should be healthy in its own right.

Would make a fun Caltrain to Stanford, Bart to Cal, and Uber to smc and Usf doable on an annual basis from the city.

WCC needs to make this happen, their offices could not be closer to these two schools to begin with!

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This thread has gone all over the place, so I’ll keep it going odd directions. Wazzu released their non-con schedule - did you see it? Boise State and SCU are pretty much the toughest tests they are going to face. Makes me feel good about our schedule but we aren’t going to get any help by beating them…. Not sure what Kyle Smith is thinking…

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Maybe we need a new thread on re-alignment-- the rumors are hitting close to home.

I read somewhere that tomorrow (Tues 8/15) is important b/c that is the deadline for ACC schools to give their notice for leaving the conference. I assume Clemson and FSU are wanting to bolt for the SEC $$$.

Question: Having 4 of 5 Bay Area D1 schools in the same conference is a tasty thought, but the WCC is not an Olympic Sports conference. How would things work for Stanford/Cal sports that the other WCC schools don’t have, e.g., fencing, gymnastics, sailing, swimming, artistic swimming, diving, men’s vball, field hockey, lacrosse, squash, wrestling and any others i missed. Are those sports in non-Pac4 conferences?

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Weave-
I’ll take a stab…

SCU and several other WCC schools already field certain Varsity level teams in sports not sponsored by the WCC. For the Broncos, women’s Water Polo and men’s Rowing, plus men’s/women’s Track & Field. Other WCC examples…Pepperdine has Varsity men’s volleyball and women’s swim/diving. These teams compete in other leagues as affiliate members or in stand-alone, sport specific leagues. Stanford and Cal’s Varsity teams in sports not sponsored by the WCC would presumably do the same.

We’ll see how this shakes out…Mountain West or WCC seem like the only reasonable options for Stanford and Cal’s non-football/basketball teams if football/basketball go to the ACC or Big10. BigWest or BigSky would make no sense IMO.

I don’t know anything but a Pac-4/MWC merger still seems the most likely outcome and try to squeeze whatever brand value they can out of ‘Pac-X’. It would still be a huge financial hit for Cal/OSU/WSU but I just don’t see any other Power conferences clamoring to add those teams. On the revenue hit, Stanford can just dip in to their mega endowment.
And I still see Stanford as having some value to someone (Big10, Big12, ACC…not SEC), so it could be a Pac-3/MWC merger unless Stanford is dead set on bringing Cal along with them to whatever conference they land in.

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I split this into its own thread to separate out this topic given the interest. Great discussion so far!

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The tough thing about the MWC is that they have a $17 million penalty per campus to leave before 2025. The PAC needs teams by fall of 2024. They can get past the exit fee, theoretically, by getting 9 schools to basically dissolve the MWC and maybe they add SMU to get to a 14-team conference. Former WCC commish Gloria Nevarez has really shown her skill in handling the aborted SDSU departure, so it’s hard for me to believe that an MWC insurrection happens on her watch. So the MWC merger is what’s left.

Merc reporter Jon Wilner says that Stanford will go independent before it joins the MWC schools. It’s too elitist to play ball with UNR and Fresno.

The PAC just hired Andrew Luck’s dad to look into expansion, but the pool of candidates is so limited once the MWC schools are off the table.

I think it ends up with Wazzu and the Beavers in the MWC. Cal and Stanford either go independent (yay WCC) or basically offer to go to the Big 10 and take almost no money for the first X years (the desperation move) while Cal begs the Regents to make UCLA fund its debt service for awhile.

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Gracias. I assumed as much but was too lazy to do the actual research on the sports.

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Yormarck throws cold water on Zags to the Big 12. It’s not happening now that they’ve pilfered the PAC 12. This confirms what most have expected.

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In related news… WCC signs a new contract with ESPN(+) for 900 annual events to be broadcasted. It sounds like theW.tv might be gone by the wayside based on the quote from the commish:
“We are thrilled that ESPN+ will be the exclusive digital home of the West Coast Conference through this expanded agreement”

Full article:
https://www.si.com/college/gonzaga/basketball/west-coast-conference-expands-espn-partnership-in-new-multi-year-deal

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I’m pretty excited about ESPN+. This should hopefully lead to a pretty substantial improvement in the streaming product. We know SCU has really needed some help with its streaming. I won’t miss the feed randomly starting mid-way through the first half after yet another round of “technical difficulties.” I think Pasarelli will still be on the call which is good for me, though I’d like to get him a color guy. Seems like Stege is out of the game now.

I’m maybe a little more obsessed with this topic than most and will cut down on posting to this thread for a bit. But I wanted to shout out a former Bronco who is now doing excellent work as the host of the Locked on Pac-12 podcast, Spencer McLaughlin. He has been doing some good work on the realignment issue. Some of you might remember him as the student doing game calls on KSCU (which, to my knowledge, wasn’t a thing for many years before he took that on). He also hosted a weekly podcast on Santa Clara.

Good to see him seeing success doing what he loves. I hope his talents find their way back to the Mission Campus at some point in the near future.

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Your obsession is a good one. Don’t stop keeping us informed.

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While ESPN+ is great, for those of us that love outside the USA like Canada, we cannot access or sign up for ESPN+ as TSN in Canada controls all ESPN content and ESPN+ not included. Hopefully I will still be able to watch the Broncos this season!

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I have enjoyed the updates. I just have not chimed in since I have NO CLUE about how the conference realignment works. lol

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Condi Rice and GWB going to bat for Stanford, Cal, and SMU in the ACC. Really pretty interesting. And it might just move the needle since reports were that Cal and Stanford, at least, were only one vote short of inclusion (need to swing one of NC State, North Carolina, Clemson, or FSU).

I still have a hard time seeing the ACC making sense for anything other than football and maybe basketball. It’s just so much travel for tennis, et al. Frankly, the only reason I see basketball maybe being worth it for the ACC is because of Stanford’s prowess on the women’s side. I still think ACC for football and WCC for the rest of the sports is the best option left on the board for the Cardinal. Cal might prefer ACC/Big West to be with the rest of the UC system.

I don’t think the Big 10 or Big 12 have any remaining interest unless Stanford and Cal were willing to join basically for free. And Stanford/Cal both seem to have lonely eyes for a power conference and little desire to try to rebuild a “power conference” by staying with OSU and WSU. If they did, Condi wouldn’t be making calls to Tallahassee for them.

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Thanks for spinning off a new thread. I’m totally fascinated by the realignment stuff, mostly because I have been an ardent Cal fan since grad school and have loved watching Pac 12 football. The entire implosion of the Pac 12 makes for a perfect business school case study. It’s insane how poorly things went to get to this point, mostly highlighted by the gross incompetence of Pac 12 leadership (from commissioners to presidents and ADs) over the years and a masterful play by Brett Yormark from the Big 12, who completely outsmarted everyone to get a linear deal while it was still available. The stealth defection of UCLA and USC to the B1G that caught the UC Regents flat footed as it was masterminded in the background is basically made for a 30 for 30. Personally, as a Pac 12 fan, it’s hard to watch what money is doing to college sports, but it’s where we’re at. A conference with over 100 years of history and more championships than anyone sure looks like it’s done. Every Olympics I get emails from the athletic department that lists all the Cal olympians, and the medal counts dwarf that of most countries. I’m sure the same can be said for Stanford. To see the feeder conference for that get blown up so quickly is startling, but this is all about football.

How Cal and Stanford aren’t in the conversation for the B1G is shocking but not without reason. It makes no sense to only have the 4 Pac 12 schools (UW, Oregon, UCLA, USC) for travel in the B1G, as 6 would be much better for a western pod. Obviously, it’s about money, but I also think there’s a political/cultural element in play. Both Cal and Stanford are considered so elitist and entitled to the geographic region that encompasses the B1G. The contract for the B1G is with Fox, and that is all about money. All indications are that the B1G presidents have always been strongly in favor of adding Cal and Stanford, but it sounds like that option is dead. Fox will not provide more dollars and they already got what they want, a west coast presence in both the B1G and the Big 12. So, here we are now with 4 schools that have no home, and one with more championships than any in history.

The rumors of Cal and Stanford to the ACC seemed odd to me at first, but it’s making more sense now. The ACC contract and grant of rights is with ESPN. That contract is additive with dollars, just like the Big 12. Any P5 addition, I believe, adds a full share to the TV package. That’s not the case in the B1G. So, it’s something like $39M for the ACC and $32M for the Big 12 for new members. These conferences have an incentive to add, or at least not a disincentive. In the ACC’s case, a few schools want to blow the conference up, so new additions hurt their cause and diminish their razor thin voting rights. However, these same schools might also want to add in an effort to potentially create unequal revenue share for those that being in more dollars (e.g., Clemson, FSU).

Long story sort, it sounds like the ACC option still has legs from insiders and whale donors at Cal. Obviously, this stuff changes by the minute, but a few of the holdouts (4 out of 15) in the ACC have apparently shown some openness to unequal shares if it increases their pot by bringing in Cal and Stanford. The August 15 deadline came and went for schools to file to break the grant of rights, and they did not, so now the play sounds like it’s figuring out how to increase the pot for a few schools. Cal and Stanford have enough desperation, donor support, and poor alternatives that the ACC looks to be the only legitimate P4 option with the way things are set up. Sports will likely implode at Cal without the football revenue, so joining a big conference seems to be the only long term viable approach, even if that means a haircut in payout to simply get an invite.

What would that mean for the other non revenue sports at Cal and Stanford? Sounds like the WCC is still what is being mentioned most, but I don’t think that will mean hoops. Also, Cal has 30 varsity sports and Stanford has 36, so at least in Cal’s case, that is going to be slashed no matter what because of financial reasons. I’ve heard they will move to 16. How many of those would be in the WCC, who knows. I want to say Cal is in like five conferences to house other sports like water polo. I would think those will stay. Several sports are fully endowed and don’t cost as a result. However, sounds like the WCC would get many. Again, who truly knows. If this does happen, and there is more optimism in the last few days, I would be excited for the WCC. It’s a bit like BYU. I thought it raised our profile and helped the league, even though it always felt temporary. Why not gain from that though? I really think the ACC move for Cal and Stanford is temporary anyway, and watching schools travel the country just feels like it is killing what college sports are supposed to be about. Desperate times. In time, we’ll likely only have two football conferences or something totally separate, which would be sad and we’ll be seeing this play out again.

It makes me proud of the WCC and the schools we have. As much as I love college football, it’s nice to have a conference that feels like it’s centered on the student athlete. Football is killing that experience for many of these schools, and it’s entirely about the money.

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As Pickman notes, Stanford and Cal to the ACC isn’t dead.

Sources – ACC ramps up talks for adding Cal, Stanford, SMU - ESPN

No clarity on whether current discussion is football only or football & basketball.

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Interesting. I would think that there might actually be some financial incentive to parking basketball in the WCC. Stanford and Cal, having to take a hit on revenue sharing the ACC, could take a full share from the WCC (albeit with the Gonzaga stipulations about performance incentives, so a “full share” doesn’t really mean the same thing). Plus, cost savings on reduced travel for the other sports. The ACC would get to claim Stanford and Cal as conference members and thereby have the shine of those schools’ academic pedigrees even without taking the rest of their sports (basically a reverse-Notre Dame). I can’t imagine that North Carolina, for example, is really that desperate to have its basketball teams fly across the country just to be on a late night ESPN2 broadcast, and it’s hard to see how Stanford and Cal basketball help the bottom line.

Of course, there’s definitely some motivated reasoning here from me. Stanford and Cal to the WCC would be an enormous coup for the conference, surpassing the BYU addition. I want it to happen. And I think that it makes at least some sense.

On the other hand, I could see the ACC just not really wanting to go halfway on the additions–remember that the Presidents (i.e. academics) ultimately make the call–and trying to make an all-sports addition work even if it seems torturous for student athletes. And I’m sure Stanford and Cal are at least trying to get full ACC membership across their sports, even if they expect to be negotiated down. After all, they are absolutely going to pick up the phone with the Big 10 the second an ACC offer comes through, just to kick those tires one last time. They can do all sports in the Big 10 given the inclusion of Oregon, Washington, UCLA, and USC (basically forming a western pod out of the “elite” Pac-12 institutions). Lastly, SMU likely has to put all sports in the ACC because they don’t necessarily have a football-free conference that will happily accept them (like the Big West or WCC for Stanford/Cal), and I’m presuming the American will kick out the rest of the sports unceremoniously if SMU jumps. So it would be somewhat weird for SMU to be an all-sports inclusion but Stanford and Cal not to be. Though SMU presents far fewer travel issues being only one time zone away from the other ACC institutions.

I also think that it’s somewhat possible that women’s basketball gets a little more value consideration. Stanford has an amazing women’s basketball program, and Cal is serviceable. The recent women’s NCAA tournament was fairly widely watched and produced some real stars. ESPN and the conferences might be considering a revenue opportunity on the women’s side that has been mostly ignored to this point, and Stanford is actually a premiere brand there.

Realignment is all about money. I think the money is best for both the ACC and Stanford/Cal to park football in the ACC and everything else in a west coast conference, perhaps the West Coast Conference. But there are plenty of reasons to think that I’m just dreaming here.

And also:

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