Yes, there is a scenario whereby SCU could end up second via winning tie breaker….2 SCU wins, Dons fall in Corvalis, then Dons fall to Zags
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This scenario would have been 50 to 1 before this weekend. But if we pull a stunner on Tuesday, I’d be pretty likely.
Although, I think I’d rather have the Dons beat GU, we take the 3 seed with the Dons at 2.
We can worry about this at 10:15 PM on Tuesday 
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Agreed. It’s not that far fetched at this point. I fully expect the Hamburglers to fall in Corvalis and to GU. Just need SCU to get by the Zags one more time and take care of lowly UOP.
Ending up second would be a huge boost for winning the WCC tourney given the format.
Still it’s highly likely that for SCU to win the tourney it will require them to beat both GU and SMC back to back (no matter where they finish in conference play)
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This is why, as painful as it would be to have USF get the 2 seed, I think that’s the best outcome. It would force the SMC-GU game in the semis, and though SCU would have to play an extra game, the Broncos are +20 points on the season versus USF and should have pulled off the clean sweep.
Beating LMU/Wazzu → USF → SMC/GU is way easier than beating GU and SMC back-to-back, I think.
Either way, all that really matters is Tuesday night.
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If that 2nd place scenario comes to fruition where we sweep GU and UOP and USF loses both, we’re in the at large discussion without question in my humble opinion.
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Need Stanford to win a bunch. If OSU beats USF, they probably get above 75 NET. SLU is getting close to the 100 line. Convert those three, and SCU gets three games out of Q3 and into Q2 (2 wins and 1 loss). Not sure if that’s sufficient, but it is probably necessary, at a minimum.
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All of these scenarios perfectly sums up the chaos that is the 2-5 slots in the WCC this year. Easily one of the most exciting conference seasons in a while - albeit still slightly disappointing unless the team pulls off the crazy this week.
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It does make for an interesting final week in the WCC, which is typically so not the case. Worth a watch at least.
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They beat Cal today. The SHOULD beat Boston College on the 26th. BC having a very rough year.
Tonight, we are Beaver fans I agree.
Do not love having to play OSU in the 4/5 game but there is no way around it now.
We do NOT want to be the 5 seed and have to play an extra game. It would end our slim changes of winning the tournament IMO.
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Help me understand…why do we want OSU to win tonight? The best we can finish is 12-6. The best OSU can finish is 12-6 (which would require a win tonight and a win vs. SMC on Saturday). The worst USF can finish is 12-6. USF has the tie breaker for 3rd on us because of the win over SMC, correct? And if OSU beats USF and then SMC on Saturday, wouldn’t they have the tie breaker on us, meaning we’d be pushed into the 5 seed? Wouldn’t we be better off if USF just beats the Beavers tonight?
I don’t think we can drop to the 5 seed unless OSU wins BOTH games. Thats a tall order for them.
The most likely odds have USF losing both games this week which would put SCU and USF in a tie for third. Yeah, the 4 seed would go to SCU, but I do think it matters that SCU remains, at minimum, neck-and-neck with USF as a program.
If USF and SCU tie, then SCU will have finished 4th or better for four straight seasons and have had a share of third place for 3/4.
That matters to me as a younger alum for whom this is the height of SCU basketball in my lifetime, but I don’t expect it to impress folks who remember the Nash years.
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Yes, hoping for an OSU win.
I don’t think we have to worry about a 3-way tie scenario as I don’t see OSU winning @ SMC. SMC thumped them in their first game, final score was only a 14pt margin but I believe SMC dominated and was up 20+ late in the game. SMC’s frontcourt size is well suited to handle Fallah and Rataj.
Buckets, I was thinking one thing and typing another. We want the Dons to win. Sorry!
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I would much rather have the certainty of 4th place with a USF win than the possibility (however small) that OSU goes 2-0 and puts us in a 3-way tie, which would drop us (I believe) to the 5-seed. @PattyMac I understand your desire to finish in a 3-way tie in the standings as a symbolic victory. But if we are going to be seeded no better than 4th, the risk of falling to 5th is too great, IMHO.
This is all great speculation on our collective parts, but ultimately we have no control over the outcome. I, personally, will be rooting for USF. At least the Dons are committed to staying in the WCC, unlike OSU/WSU who are simply treating us as a layover on their way to the next conference.
That USF loss at the beginning of conference play really hurt. Watching Tilly stroking his free throws with easy and fluidity last night really poured salt into the proverbial wound.
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Not a three way tie. Just us and USF. I would be truly shocked if OSU is even competitive in Moraga. The Beavers are an awful team in the road. Their game at SCU was probably their best road performance all season.
But your point about locking up 4th place is well taken and strategically correct, obviously.
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I’m confused.
USF is 12-4. If Dons lose to OSU and to Gonzaga on Saturday, they finish 12-6.
SCU is 11-6. If Broncos beat UoP, they finish 12-6.
OSU is 10-6. If Beavers beat USF and SMC (a tall order, but possible), they finish 12-6.
Am I missing something?
You have it right. I just don’t take seriously the idea that the Beavers would win on the road in Moraga. But it is possible, so obviously wanting USF to win is the better strategic outcome if not what I want on an emotional fan level.
Well, all academic now. SCU is locked at 4th.
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A good USF is good for the WCC, doubly so after the short-timers in the pacific northwest all depart.
I say that with a more or less avowed dislike verging on the irrational for them, as any good Santa Clara Bronco has.
The nucleus of this league, for better or worse, has been Santa Clara, USF and SMC since the 1950s. Other schools have come and gone, like Fresno State in the ancient times, or Nevada within the memory of some.
There is no obvious way to replace teams like Wazzu, Oregon State, BYU, or Gonzaga. I am leery, simultaneously, of (1) adding unproven commodities like UCSD and (2) being quite small in terms of size. I’d take (2) at the moment. The Ivy League gets along just fine with 8.
All that is to say, USF getting a bid this year is good for the WCC. USF beating Gonzaga at the Chase Center this weekend is good for the WCC, going forward, to the extent it stimulate interest in USF hoops.
So, I am rooting for the Dons. I haven’t the foggiest whether they have an at large chance. The SCU-GU broadcast noted them as a last four or next four “out”, but their NET is a half dozen higher than ours.
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