USF NET is half dozen higher but their WAB is 48 compared to SCU at 81. The actualWAB component seems to factor more than actual NET rankings in some of the tourney bubble projections.
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Didn’t we do league predictions at sometime before league play? I can’t seem to find them.
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Nasty said it well. I can’t find myself rooting for USF though I would like Gonzaga to lose as well. I find this year particularly frustrating as the stars aligned, all our players were coming back, and hopes were high that this year we had a chance to break through. Given Gonzaga’s difficulties this year with already 4 league losses, how long ago was it that that happened???, had we performed as I thought was possible, we would be in great shape. A missed free throw at USF, Blown leads to Stanford and North Dakota State, an unexplainable loss to LMU and we are on the outside looking in with a chance for an NIT berth. It’s frustrating that USF manages to win the close games that we seem to lose. We lose most of the team next year so the future is now and I have learned to expect to be disappointed. I hope I’m wrong and hope springs eternal. We need to win at least two games in the tournament and not blow our last game of the regular season to UOP. The NCAA’s are only possible with a clean sweep in the tournament. Doubtful. But forever, GO BRONCOS!!
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SCU is almost certainly getting into the NIT.
But you are right. I checked Torvik this morning, and if you just flip the NDSU, Stanford, and USF games (all games where SCU had a 90+% chance of winning in the last 90 seconds) then SCU gets in the Tournament per that tool.
I haven’t lost total hope for Vegas. I prefer being on SMC’s side of the bracket–always better to face Bennett than Few in the month of March–but SCU is 2-2 against the Zags over the past two seasons, so there’s some hope there still to make the championship game.
@buckets Some previews and predictions in this thread: Santa Clara Preview in the Offseason
But I’m not sure if we ever did an official “guess the record” game this year as in years past.
@Dualthreat The official line is that the NET is for sorting your opponents but not used for actually determining the field. They use resumes to put teams in (i.e. good wins versus bad losses). The common wisdom is that you need a few good wins but really need to avoid bad losses. USF’s success has been avoiding bad losses though they’ve had challenges getting the wins they need. But it keeps them in the hunt longer than SCU who accumulates both impressive wins and bizarre losses. A few teams with lower NET rankings than SCU will get in this year because they have 0 Q3/Q4 losses, even if they only have one more Q1 win than SCU.
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4 missed late game free throws really doomed the Broncos chances of an at-large bid:
Bal missed the front end of a 1-1 against South Dakota State.
Bal & Tilly each went 1-2 against Stanford
Tilly’s missed free throw against USF
Make those they’re probably on the bubble
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Once again, my memory fails me. Early onset dementia, I suppose. I feel like somewhere I predicted SCU would finish 12-6, but that could sincerely be revisionist history on my part.
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Haha well I know that you predicted that USF would finish ahead of the Broncos, so I can vouch for that tragic prediction coming through.
We had 3 points to give at Gonzaga. That would be enough to secure wins versus NDSU and USF by preventing OT. Oh if only…
LMU gave SMC some trouble last night, SMC narrowly won 58-55. Game played out similar to our loss to LMU in a game also played in the 50’s.
LMU was up early leading 15-8 at the 10 minute mark but their O non-existent the rest of the half and SMC went in to the half up 24-19 in a typical ugly SMC (and often LMU) game.
SMC up as much as ~12 in the 2nd half. LMU battled back and got it down to a one possession during the last several minutes but could get over the hump.
Saxen fouled out and only played 19 minutes.
Caleb Stone-Carrawell led LMU w/ 17pts and kept them in the game. He did so by making a half dozen mid range jumpers off the dribble, no 3 ptrs…there is lesson and message there.
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This is the way. Go right at Saxen. Sure he is going to win fairly often, but statistically he’s going to get called for fouls maybe 1 out of 3 or 4 times. Maybe more frequently against guys who are just a bit quicker. Bukky might fit that bill. Or O’Neil.
I know Sendek doesn’t really teach contact play (on either side of the court), but targeting key players for foul trouble seems to be a legitimate game plan. It worked for us in one of our SMC games. Saxen had two fouls in the first 9 minutes or so of the 1st half. Bennett pulled him for much of the rest of the half, but we didn’t continue going at him.
How far into the game vs. LMU did Saxen foul out?
If we could combine the LMU squad with ours, we’d have an interesting lineup. They only shoot 32.9% from 3, we are at 37.7% on the season (and probably even better after some early abysmal shooting from O’Neil and a couple of others).
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I believe Saxen fouled out with over 5 mins left but he was in foul trouble throughout. Got his 3rd foul late in the 1st half.
Saxen has been foul prone all season; has fouled out 6 times and 6 games w/ four fouls. That has limited him to several games where he only played around 20mins, sometimes less.
All that said, Wessels has improved and provides a strong back-up…Wessels is even bigger and arguably more skilled offensively but not as physical (offense and defense) nor does he have the savvy of a 5th year vet.
We have to win our 1st game of course, most likely vs. OSU but hope we are evaluating some alternative strategies vs. SMC. Stomped us once and we played better but still lost the 2nd game…something different is in order and yes, attacking Saxen and getting him out of the game will hopefully be part of a multiple part strategy.
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All Conference selections announced:
Basically a clean sweep for SMC of the top awards. I actually think Mahi is more deserving of 6MOY than Lewis. Lewis wasn’t even the top frosh and ranks significantly lower than Mahi in the analytics for both full season and conference-only play. But I don’t coach basketball. Lewis, to his credit, was a key player in SMC’s most important games and never made a start (Mahi started 3 or so games in conference).
Bal gets first team; Stewart and Tilly get second team honors. Only SMC, Gonzaga, and SCU have three selections between the two teams.
Aside from my Mahi quibble, I can’t really argue with any of the picks here. It’s a pretty chalky year for these awards.
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Has 1st Team All WCC always been 10 players?
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Yes, it’s often been mocked but never changed.
I don’t have a problem with 10. The idea is if you were to put together a “full” team from the pool of players on WCC teams, what would that team look like. I don’t think I’ve ever seen 5 starters each play a full 40 minutes!
Always is a long time…don’t know if it’s been 10 forever.
Thoughts…while I’m glad to see a Bronco on the 1st team and in general the more Broncos the better on these lists. But for reference, Bal was 20th in the league in scoring, considering scoring is his best asset makes for a bit of head scratcher as he doesn’t do much on D or the boards.
GU’s Khalif Battle seemed to get black balled …a bit of a hot head and maybe attitude problem but don’t know if that was it. Was 14th in scoring, 1pt+ more than Bal and Battle is a pretty good defender and from the 2nd place team and yet didn’t even get a honorable mention nod.
And Pacific’s Lamar Washington is a bit of head scratcher for 2nd team especially considering how bad the Tigers were…would have picked most of the Honorable mention list over him.
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Huge oversight leaving Battle off.
I went back and looked at the game play-by-play for the last 2 minutes of the first half vs. SCU. Zags outscored Broncos 8-0 and all 8 points were scored by Battle.
He is certainly a better defender than Bal and I’d argue he’s much more active on offense than Bal.
I think Washington is a pretty good pick. If he had a decent supporting cast, he’d be an obvious 2nd team. He shouldn’t be punished just because the rest of the team isn’t loaded with talent.
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But the reality is players always ARE punished for the quality of their teams…or conversely players on the top teams get special consideration.
Example is last season…I don’t think Gus deserved POY nor did Saxen deserve DPOY. Both Anton Watson and Jonathon Mogbo deserved consideration and selection for one or the other, especially DPOY. Saxen clogs the lane and defends the post well but is an above average but certainly not elite shot blocker but both Watson and Mogbo were far more impactful defenders and could defend all 5 positions…pull Saxen 10 feet from the hoop and he gets exposed. But voters gave SMC guys the 1st place bonus consideration.
Lamar Washington did have two good players alongside him, Elias Ralph and Elijah Fisher (higher scoring avg. than Washington)…the problem was their talent dropped off significantly after those two, they had zero depth plus the added challenge of a roster playing together for the 1st time.
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This is true. Which makes it more impressive that Podz managed to get co-POY on the third place team. Timme was an elite college player, no doubt. But Podz was far and away the superior player statistically which is what it took to get recognition alongside an elite player on a much better overall team.
As to the 10-man first team, I didn’t mean to imply that it goes literally back to Bill Russell or anything. But it has been a 10-man first team for at least the last 10-15 seasons.
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Ensminger and O’Neil make the WCC All-Academic Team:
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Congrats to Jake and Johnny. Here on this board, we spend a great deal of time dissecting the on court performances of these young men. It’s important to remember that, just as we all did, these guys are also preparing themselves for the rest of their lives and it’s great to see them taking advantage of our fine institution’s educational offerings.
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