Tip-off: Today (Wednesday), 7pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -15.4, 90% win probability; ESPN: Broncos -13.5, 85.2% win probability
Over/Under: 151.5
Torvik: Broncos #38, Tigers #141
(Broncos #63, Tigers #174 over Last 10 Games)
Pacific Tigers
Quick Aside: It occurs to me that, after playing LMU and Pacific back-to-back, there’s a real gap in the conference when it comes to ursine mascots. I move for Stu Jackson to either (a) prioritize adding the Bears to the WCC–preferably Cal, but I’ll settle for UCLA–or (b) force Denver to change their mascot upon entering next season. Stu, give us the Lions, Tigers, and Bears lineup that we deserve!
The UOP Tigers feel like they’re a season away from reclaiming some real respectability, something they’ve been searching for since Stoudamire and his hard-as-nails, junkyard dog teams were scrapping their way to top-half finishes. Or at least, they would be a season away if we were still in the old days where a team would look similar from year-to-year. But Dave Smart is, by all accounts, a very good coach. And at a school like Pacific, hiring a good coach is basically the only thing you can do. UOP isn’t going to find $4 million in NIL money under a rock (though the Spanos family could provide that if they wanted to). Nor are recruits going to fall in love with Stockton, CA on a visit. You just have to be a helluva coach. And Smart, for now, is doing a serviceable job delivering on the promise, with a top-130ish Tigers squad in his second season. That’s not call-the-presses success (yet). But at one of the 2-3 hardest jobs in the WCC, being top-150 is pretty damn good. Just ask Portland.
These Tigers have gotten it done by just consistently winning the games they are supposed to (what’s that like?) going 9-0 in Q4 games so far. They only have a single win outside of Q4 but lost at Nevada on a buzzer beater and were tight with Cal in Berkeley. So don’t think that Dave Smart can’t find a way to scare the Broncos in Leavey.
Likely Starters and Key Bench
[Coming soon]
Pacific plays basketball with similar emphases to our Broncos. They focus on rebounding and rim protection/interior defense. Wing (and all-Canada teammate of Mahi) Elias Ralph is key to the Tigers, doing a little bit of everything. He’s Pacific’s leading scorer, rebounder, and shot blocker. He doesn’t shoot the 3P extremely often, but converts at a very respectable 38% when he does. Isaac Jack, UOP’s 6-11 center, does a good job affecting shots by his mere presence, swallows up boards, and scores efficiently near the hoop. TJ Wainwright is their 3P specialist, hitting nearly 40% on good volume, and Jaden Clayton finds the open man, dishing out about 6 assists per game.
Almost every Tiger can rebound, with three players getting better than 6 boards per game. And they do it at both ends: Pacific is top-40 in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounds. Santa Clara is top-10 for O-Boards but merely 150ish on the other end. Therefore, Graves is going to need some help keeping the Tigers off the offensive glass.
UOP has a decent, but not spectacular offense. They can score 80+, but it doesn’t come naturally, and they don’t have the motor to explode for 90 or more. Santa Clara has more offensive weapons if shots are falling.
Santa Clara can and should win this one, but they will need to really work hard on the glass where both teams excel. UOP wins by getting lots of extra possessions; Santa Clara needs to limit that. Santa Clara also needs to continue the momentum of avoiding needless fouls. UOP is an excellent FT-shooting team (top-20 in the country) and will convert from the line with ease. Finally, Santa Clara is a much more potent offensive team and will need to get the right shots and put them in the hoop. An average shooting night will give Santa Clara a double-digit victory. But a cold night or bad shot selection will let UOP fight until the last seconds.
Prediction: 86-72 Santa Clara. Hammond gets back to his old tricks with an efficient 18 points and 7 rebounds.
