Tip-off: Thursday, 4 pm at the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: SCU -23.1, 96% win probability; ESPN: 96% win probability, SCU -16.5.
The Tigers
The Tigers have been moribund largely since Coach Bob Thomason left the program before their re-entrance to the WCC. Yes, there were a couple of decent years (emphasis on decent and not good) under now-GA Tech Coach Damon “Mighty Mouse” Stoudamire. Those years were characterized by tough, aggressive teams that played solid defense. Then Leonard Perry took over for three seasons ending with an 0-16 conference record last year. (Hey, we know what that’s like!) Canadian Xs and Os wunderkind, Dave Smart, was brought in to right the ship and, well, it hasn’t happened overnight. UOP is 7-17 (5-17 versus D1) and 2-8 in conference. Fully 40% of their D1 wins are over poor Wazzu who didn’t realize their main conference rivals would be in Stockton and not Spokane.
This isn’t a good team. But two wins against WSU and a close-ish game against SMC should be enough to warn against phoning in a game here.
Starters:
- 6-7 forward Elias Ralph (16.2pts, 7.5rebs, 1.2blks, 29.9% from 3)
- 7-0 center Jazz Gardner (4.8pts, 4.0rebs, 63.5% from the field)
- 6-6 wing Elijah Fisher (16.3pts, 5.1rebs, 30.2% from 3)
- 6-4 guard Lamar Washington (12.6pts, 5.0rebs, 6.1asts, 30.9% from 3)
- 6-3 guard Jefferson Koulibaly (7.0pts, 2.1rebs, 35.3% from 3)
Key Bench:
- 6-4 guard Peter Krivokapic (6.6pts, 24.6% from 3)
- 6-4 guard Carter Benton (2.5pts, 33% from 3)
No hiding the ball here. Pacific is not a good team. There’s a reason Torvik predicts a dominating win over the Tigers. There’s almost nothing that Pacific does well on either end. They are, perhaps, at least an average team at getting offensive boards and don’t give up all that many themselves. They shoot a decent percentage inside the arc–but are awful beyond it on both sides of the ball.
Aside from a clear talent gap, the Tigers have three particularly notable weaknesses: 3P defense, TOs, and fouls. Pacific has one of the worst perimeter defenses in the country, which should be great for Stewart, Bryan, O’Neil, etc. to shoot some wide-open looks, assuming good ball movement. Pacific also turns the ball over on almost 1/5 of their possessions. SCU tried playing some tighter defense than usual against SMC, especially in the first half (did they play a second half? I can’t recall…) That should lead to plenty of steals against this group of Tigers. And lastly, Pacific will send you to the line a lot. So the Broncos need to make their free throws to push the advantage.
Basically, Pacific has the occasional fluke game that keeps them in it. Unfortunately for WSU, they had two fluke games against the Cougars. But this is not a good team whose mean performance should lead to a 20+ point SCU victory. But be on guard for the fluke game…
X-Factors:
- Lamar Washington got 40 in the overtime win in Pullman. He was quiet in the return game, though Pacific still got the win. But be cautious about the hot hand on this Pacific team and work to shut down any player who is overperforming their averages. UOP will ride the hot hand as long as you let them.
- Can the Broncos mentally put the SMC loss behind them? For 12 minutes, SCU hadn’t looked so lost since Reno in November. Stewart called his own number and helped make the final score respectable in garbage time. Can SCU find a flow like they had against WSU? It isn’t like Pacific is going to play shut-down defense, so SCU should be able to work the ball around and find the best shots.
Prediction: SCU plays angry, and the offense is back big. 94-71 Santa Clara. O’Neil and Tongue both put up double-doubles.