Tip-off: Monday, 7pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Predictions: Torvik: Broncos -12.8, 87% win probability; ESPN: 85% win probability
Torvik: Broncos #89, Tigers #186
Towson
It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Welcome to another season of Bronco basketball, now with games that you can actually see and that actually count! First up are the Towson Tigers from Towson, MD, just a tiny bit across the border line from Baltimore City.
Despite being only the second-most well known and beloved men’s basketball program in Baltimore County (the award obviously going to UMBC for their first-of-its-kind 16-over-1 upset), the Tigers are the better basketball program. They have won 20 games in 4 of the past 5 seasons, only just missing last season with 19 total wins. Head Coach Pat Skerry is in his 16th season, so he is well settled within his program even if Towson, like almost every mid-major program these days, lacks much internal continuity.
Given the state of rosters in college basketball, I’m not even going to try to project a starting five or major contributors. That’s hard enough to do for the Broncos right now, let alone a school on the other coast. But Towson has two returners who played meaningful minutes last year: 6-6 wing Jaquan Womack and 6-9 center Caleb Embeya. Womack contributed 7.1 points and 4.1 rebounds on fairly low shooting percentages last season. Embeya hauled in 5.8 boards per game but was not a major scoring threat. Still, expect both to have larger roles this season. Of the newcomers, most notable for Bronco fans is likely 6-5 guard Ben Roseborough who found his way to Baltimore County after a stint on the Alameda / Santa Clara Street, playing for the SJSU Spartans last year. Roseborough averaged 12 points per game and 41% from three.
If Towson’s style is similar to last season’s (big “if” with such different personnel), then these Tigers will be more a defense-minded squad. Last year’s Tigers were a top-100 defensive squad while really struggling to put the ball in the hoop. Think of them like Seattle- or North Texas-lite. But that’s a potential concern for the Broncos who have been chucking bricks so far in their exhibition matches. If it’s a rockfight, that’s right where Towson likes to operate.
The Broncos
Hey, we barely know our own squad this year! It’s hard to know who the starters will be given that neither Mahi nor Cochran have made appearances in the exhibition matches. The starting five in Logan, UT was Ensminger, Sash, Darlan, Longcor, and Tadjo. Given that Tadjo fouled out in 5 minutes, I would not expect him to be in the starting lineup unless the coaches feel that his performance was totally aberrant. If Mahi can play, my prediction is that Mahi joins the starting lineup, with the Broncos once again opting to play most possessions without a “true” center and moving Darlan to the 5. Wild guess, though.
Mostly, I think you’re looking for Santa Clara to show identity early on. Last year’s Santa Clara team was clearly a different group from the first three games: tougher, more focused on extra possessions, and a little foul happy.
Fans hoping that the Broncos will foul less are likely to be sorely disappointed. But can the Broncos keep fouls relatively controlled so that free throws given don’t drown the advantage gained from extra possessions earned by aggressive play? And while this squad looks as deep as ever on paper, will reliable hands develop? Ensminger, obviously, is as steady of a Bronco as any to wear the jersey. But last year’s Broncos could also rely on consistent, quality play from Graves, Hammond, and Mahi on most nights. But this year’s returners–like Gavalyugov, Darlan, and Cochran–and newcomers–like Castillo and Longcor–have either tended to be hot/cold or are just unknown entities. The Broncos can ride the hot hand, but there needs to be a hand that is hot (and preferably 2-3).
I expect a sloppy first half but hope for the Broncos’ talent to start to show itself in the second half to pull away for a comfortable win.
Prediction: 83-70 Santa Clara. Darlan shows growth with 15 points and 8 boards.