Big win for Gonzaga over Kentucky, gives them the Quad 1 win they were lacking.
IMO, as long as they have no more than another two losses (and no bad ones) and get to the WCC tourney final then they are in the NCAA Tourney.
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Yeah, zags will be in the tourney again.
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should help our NET ranking, no?
Canât hurt but GUâs NET was already pretty good at 25 and at this late date in the season itâs harder to move the needle. My guess is they move up to 21 or 22.
Current WCC standings / records plus NET and Torvik ranks:
- SMC - 12-0 / 15 (NET) / 10 (Torvik)
- GU - 10-2 / 23 / 21
- USF - 10-2 / 60 / 81
- SCU - 8-4 / 106 / 125
- USD - 6-7 / 229 / 245
- Pepp - 4-9 / 228 / 243
- LMU - 3-9 / 206 / 183
- Portland - 3-10 / 314 / 290
- Pacific - 0-13 / 352 / 339
LMU has really struggled of late and are missing three starters (Leaupepe, Dom Harris and Issanza).
The battle for 2nd between USF and GU will be interesting. Both have to play 3 of their remaining 4 games against the other top 4 teams in the league.
The Broncos are not mathematically eliminated from finishing 2nd but to do so weâd have to win out (meaning beat both USF and GU) and also have both USF and GU lose out to SMC. In which case weâd finish tied w/ either GU or USF at 12-4 but hold the tiebreaker by virtue of our sweep of GU. Thatâs all a lot to ask for but possible; the biggest obstacle will be beating GU in Spokane next Saturday.
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A more sober and very achievable goal is to beat out USF for 3rd and claim 3 straight third place finishes. (Fun fact: for all of USFâs success, they havenât finished better than 4th in the last decade). All that would take is USF losing to both the Zags and SMC (likely but not certain) and SCU losing only to Gonzaga. Basically chalk in the current predictions and beat USF, which should be very achievable, especially with a full roster. Because USF/SCU would have split, SCU gets the tie breaker for third by virtue of the Gonzaga win. Thatâs if the tiebreaker rules are the same as the past few years which, if the teams split, takes the team with the best record against the other WCC teams, starting from the top and moving down.
To be clear, SCU should shoot for as high of a finish as possible. But 4th place here would be a disappointment, especially after choking against USF which gave them the inside route for 3rd. But remember, USF has beaten exactly one decent team this season and no good ones. Mogbo is the only exceptional thing about them. SCU should expect to beat the Dons if they donât give the game away like last time.
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Agree Patty.
Finishing 3rd instead of 4th provides no additional value in terms of WCC tourney byes but it should still be the minimum goal because: 1) finishing 4th would be underperforming considering the relative overall weakness of the league this season; 2) USF is a rival, should always have a goal of beating them and finishing above them in the standings; 3) improves odds for a NIT invite; and, 4) a lessor consideration: but finishing 3rd instead of 4th allows us to avoid SMC (the presumed 1st place team) until the tourney final and presents the possibility that we avoid them all together if USF as the 4th place team can beat them in the semi-finals.
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Exactly. Plus, Iâll add that the narrative will start to grow louder that Santa Clara is the team ready to take BYUâs role and create a steady top 3 (leaving USF in the cold being the bonus, of course). Add that to the Jalen/Podz returns, and youâve got a good recruiting pitch for both prospective players and, if weâre being honest, donors.
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This will be another weird week where the weekday WCC games are spread over Tues/Wed/ThursâŚnot sure why weâve seen so much of that this year.
Games of interest and consequence this week:
Tuesday: USF @ St. Maryâs, 8pm, ESPN2/ESPN+
Saturday: Broncos @ GU, 7pm, ESPN2
Also of note: SMCâs Joshua Jefferson is out for the rest of the season due to injury. He has been one of SMCâs heroes this season. That is a significant blow to SMC. How significant remains to be seen.
And of course, Iâm wishing Jefferson a speedy recovery and return for next season, even for a bitter rival.
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I do think that ignites Alex Ducasâs offense for SMC was has been largely dormant this year
I took a glance at the AP poll this week. SMC is in and up to #18. Future WCC opponent Washington State enters at #21. The Zags are the second team left out of the Top-25.
This is kind of a made-up stat, but the Broncos have two wins this season over teams that have been ranked in the top-25 after the seasonâs mid-point. Wazzu wasnât ranked when the Broncos beat them; Gonzaga was and then immediately dropped out of the poll. I donât know the last time something like that happened. I know that SCU beat a ranked SMC team two seasons ago, but I donât think theyâve gotten two wins of that caliber in the same season in recent history.
Thatâs both impressive and also underlines how costly the losses to SJSU, USD, Cal, and Yale are. This is a team that could absolutely get an at-large if it played to potential, and it has played close to that potential at times. But the lack of cohesion and consistency has sunk them out of even a likely NIT spot. Still, to put a brighter spin on things, SCU has for three seasons been a few bad losses away from at-large contention, and if you knock on that door enough times hopefully it opens eventually.
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Thatâs very bad news and bad luck for SMC and Jefferson. His play was improving throughout the year.
They started Luke Barrett in Jeffersonâs spot at the 4 their last game. Barrett has played both the 3 and 4. Does make them smaller in the frontcourtâŚBarrett is listed at 6-6, 200lbs. vs. 6-8, 220 for Jefferson.
And silver lining is they do have decent depth at the 4 as Harvard transfer Mason Forbes has also gotten consistent though modest minutes, heâs bigger/stronger and decent athlete, his rebounding/Def/Shot blocking matches Jefferson but heâs not much of a scorer and doesnât shoot the 3.
SMC barely survives a scare from usf - in a game where the largest lead for either team was 6 points.
A quick note as well - with UConnâs loss SMC has the nationâs longest winning streak.
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USF played tough. The 5th foul on Mogbo was pretty bizarre. They said that Mogbo hooked Saxen, but the replay just seemed to show Saxen shoving Mogbo to the ground.
Gerlufsonâs clock management at the end was really strange. They let like half the clock expire before fouling in the last minute.
I still think SCU is better than this Dons team, but their three point shooting can keep them in it. Williams was the hero of the game for USF and a bit of Beasley too.
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Would love to see us finish third. I do think we underestimate USF. Beasley and Williams are the type of guards we have trouble defending. In addition their on ball defense last night against SMC was really good.
In any case a 3-1 finish might squeak us into third. A Pride position vs real WCC Tourney advantage.
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For 3rd, Santa Clara needs 3-1 and for USF to lose to the Zags. USF, to date, has not beaten any team nearly as good as the Zags nor have they lost to any team like USD or SJSU. And USF gave away its home court advantage by playing Gonzaga in Chase. So I think an 11-4 USF is likely to come to Leavey for the season finale. SCU needs to take care of their end and be 10-5 before the final game.*
Then SCU plays for pride and 3rd place (albeit with the tie-breaker) at home on Senior Night against the Dons. Hopefully, we can pack the house.
Also of note: USF has Gonzaga and SCU in a Thursday/Saturday set for the final week. SCU does have to go to Portland and back for their own Thursday/Saturday set, but I think that schedule slightly favors SCU for the final tilt.
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The ESPN crew last night said at one point that USF is clearly the third best program in the WCC. To which I muttered to no one that USF hasnât finished better than 4th in the WCC in a decade. But USF is quite good and has been much more consistent over that decade than SCU which is what they were alluding to.
I would imagine that there is a toggle between NCAA or NIT for GU, but that either way, those three are headed to the NCAA/NIT and it would be hard for SCU to make the grade (for the NIT) in terms of resume and computer showing, regardless of whether we finish 3rd or 4th.
Finishing 3rd but sitting home while USF plays in the NIT feels hollow.
Iâd personally love to the see the Zags dance streak broken, just for humility purposes. Theyâve had it very good for a long time, and in that span, several programs, like Pepperdine, have essentially atrophied away.
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A lot of ifs in my post here, butâŚif SCU can go 3-1 in final four games beating USF, and if USF loses to Gonzaga and SCU, and we finish tied in the league standings: SCU has more Q1 wins and Q2 wins than USF. USF has not beaten any team ranked ahead of them in the NET rankings while SCU has wins over Gonzaga, WSU, Oregon, and Stanford, all with higher NET ratings and a win over USF it would add another. If this would happen I really will not understand how USF would go to the NIT and SCU would notâŚthough apparently this is what the current gap in the ratings shows. In the final analysis we lost some games we should not have (SJS and Cal most notably) and came close against Utah State and USF but lost. USF has won a Lot of close games. Still holding out hope we close strong and a strong finish helps us get an invite. GO BRONCOS!!!
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