I’m puzzled by the scheduling…SCU must travel to Spokane for the game on Saturday, fly back that night or the next morning, and then return to the Pacific Northwest for the game on Thursday @Portland.
1 Like
Assuming Jefferson won’t be back for Vegas, I don’t think it’s quite as critical to finish 3rd and get matched up with the Zags. SMC appears down a significant notch without Jefferson due to their severe lack of depth. I view them as vulnerable and the Dons sensed it last night in Moraga.
Good point. For the WCC Tourney I do think it is more wide open then in a long time with realistically 4 teams a shot to at least battle for the title on a mostly neutral court.
I don’t know if SMC can even PLAY Mason Forbes at the end of a close game - he’s shooting 35% (yes, thirty five percent ) from the line. There’s no quick fix for that.
Bad losses (Q3 and Q4) matter as much as good (Q1) wins. USF is undefeated vs. Quad 3 and 4 teams while we have three Quad 3 or 4 losses (SJSU and Yale quad 3, USD quad 4).
And I’d argue that the Cal loss is just as bad as the Yale loss at home but we get ‘credit’ for the Cal game being an Away game, if it was a home game it would be a 3rd Quad 3 loss. But I think we all understand there isn’t much difference between playing home vs. away when we play Stanford, Cal, SJSU. But the advance metrics (NET, Torvik, etc.) don’t account for anemic home crowds or short travel distance with no air travel, no overnight stay, etc.
The bottom line is USF’s metrics look better on paper than ours. USF is ranked much higher on Torvik in Def Efficiency ratings, which does include adjustments for relative quality of opponent…Def rankings: USF #54, SCU #147…pretty big difference, primarily because they force more turnovers and rebound better. Meanwhile our Adj Off ratings are more similar but SCU still trails, 97 to 116, primarily because of our horrible turnover rate.
4 Likes
I’ll add that the NCAA selection committee had no problem taking a 4th place USF to the NCAA tournament in 2022. 3rd place SCU wasn’t even considered.
That’s a bit of an apples and oranges comparison because USF swept SCU that season and was clearly the better and more consistent squad. But unless SCU creeps all the way into the 80s of the NET, I doubt they get much look for the NIT. That’s possible but pretty hard from here.
1 Like
ahh, yes, the 2022 WCC tourney where we played SMC in the semifinals and lost 75-72. We went 15-23 from the FT line (including the front end of some 1-and-1s) to the Gaels’ 13-16. Kuhse shot lights out. Interestingly, we only committed 3 turnovers in that game (and forced 8).
2 Likes
I want the 3 seed for pride but also think that SCU has a decent shot at SMC sans Jefferson with the motivation from the last meeting.
The significant seeding fights that still have to happen are USF/SCU for 3 and LMU/Pepperdine for 6. I don’t think the Zags have much hope of getting the 1 seed at this point–their loss to Santa Clara will sink them unless SMC slips up against USD. I guess USF could still get the 2 seed, but it would require beating the Zags and the Zags losing to SMC and USF beating Santa Clara again. Possible but pretty unlikely.
USD is pretty much barred from 4. Pepperdine has a lead over LMU but only has games against SMC and USF left. Even if LMU loses to the Broncos tonight, they get three straight against USD, Portland, and Pacific. So LMU could make it a squeaker and get the auto-advance to the quarterfinals.
Poor Pacific clinched 9th place last night in a loss to Pepperdine that seemed to have the ambience of a small funeral for a deeply unpopular person. Everyone involved just wanted it over as quickly as possible.
3 Likes
Can Romar survive another year in Malibu? I’m guessing Pepp will lose 2 or 3 to the portal.
1 Like
I have seen clips ALL SEASON with Saxon getting away with everything. I actually see now why JB gave him that warning shot. One game against LMU Saxon pulled that in the key and leveled Leaupepe. Imagine how much force Saxon had to exert to plow Leaupepe on the ground. This was such a bad call. https://twitter.com/i/status/1760188133411283069
3 Likes
That was a horrible call. The most generous I can be is that the official only saw the very end and had to call something and perhaps assumed that Mogbo hooked Saxen and then flopped. But it’s an obvious Saxen foul on the replay.
Still, Mogbo handled it correctly by noting his shock and outrage with the official, not with Saxen himself. Unfortunately it was foul #5, so no chance to assert himself against Saxen on the next play.
2 Likes
If Romar survives another year, they are not serious about basketball.
Crazy that we are already in the final week of conference play. SMC has all but locked up the regular season title but there is a bit of shuffling that can happen between teams 2-4 and 6-8.
It boils down to this: if Gonzaga beats USF and we beat Portland on Thursday, then I think we will take 3rd place if we then beat USF at home on Saturday. If USF beats Gonzaga on Thursday or if we fall to Portland, then we are a lock for 4th.
At this point, I’m thinking we might be better off finishing 4th and drawing SMC in the semi-finals (assuming we win the quarterfinal game vs. USD). Gonzaga is playing extremely well, and we possibly have figured out the Gaels after our last trip to Moraga. Either way, it will be a tough road to win the tournament. At this point, achieving 20 wins again will probably require us to beat Portland and our quarterfinal matchup. My confidence in winning on Saturday is not high given how badly we played the Dons down the stretch a few weeks ago, giving up that huge early lead. Not trying to be a downer, just being realistic. Let’s be honest, against teams that are competitive (not the 7,8,9 teams in the conference), our defense is below average and our good offense shows up maybe half the time.
2 Likes
I’m optimistic about Saturday. Remember that we finished that game at USF without Bal, Knapper, Tilly, Benjamin and Marshall.
1 Like
We will know in the first 5 minutes if we are going to take the game on Sat. If our guys come out strong - we are at home and we have payback due to USF. The key is to come out strong and for our coaching staff to not let us get down by 8 before making an adjustment.
2 Likes
Big final week for the WCC and the Broncos.
Some very good games this week…GU @ USF on Thurs. and GU @ SMC Saturday along with of course USF @ Broncos.
USD is currently 6-8 but finishes with LMU and Pacific; two winnable games and they could finish 8-8 in 5th place. That’s well ahead of preseason expectations and nice improvement given their results the past few seasons.
1 Like
Lavin has done a heck of a job with the Toreros. I expect that they will continue to be a rising star over the next couple of seasons.
The gonz/usf game is at the Chase Center. Looks like the entire lower bowl is only about halfway sold.
Interesting strategy, they surely will make slightly more $$ but you open it up to a whole more Gonzaga fans to make it into the building.
1 Like
I’m not convinced that it will make more money after Chase is compensated for the rental, though. I honestly think that between Gonzaga peaking before March, Senior Night distractions for the Dons, and USF selling away its home court advantage, the Zags may wallop the Hilltoppers tonight.
A lesson I heard from a political organizer has always stuck with me: “Always book a space that has half the capacity of your conservative estimate of attendance. That way every event will be standing room only, and it will feel like you have momentum no matter how many people show.”
Chase is going to feel cavernous tonight with occasional bursts from the 1500 Zag fans likely to be in attendance.
5 Likes