WELCOME BACK BRONCOS!!! 30 YEARS LATER AND THE WAIT IS OVER!
Tip-off: Friday, 9:15 am (PDT) in the Enterprise Center (STL)
TV: CBS
Line: Torvik: Broncos -0.4, 51% win probability; ESPN: Broncos +1.5, 27.8% win probability
Over/Under: 160.5
Torvik: Broncos #29, Wildcats #31
(Broncos #33, Wildcats #31 over Last 10 Games)
Kentucky
Santa Clara continues its trend of matching up against good mid-major competition where the talent is much better than the name on the jersey would indicate…
Kidding. This is Kentucky. That Kentucky. The team with the most NCAA Tournament appearances all time. The team that is tied with North Carolina for the most all-time Tournament wins. The team that (allegedly) spent $22 million on this year’s roster–more than any other squad in all of Division 1 basketball.
But it’s also not that Kentucky, exactly. Despite the purported $22 million, there was a brief moment early this season when there were sincere doubts that the Wildcats would make the Tournament at all. By the second week of December, Kentucky had only beaten its buy-game opponents and lost to each high major squad that it faced, including a 35-point blowout to Gonzaga (we know how those feel). Then came back-to-back wins against Indiana and St. Johns, and the Wildcats put together a season that, while not inspiring for lifelong Kentucky fans, was at least solid and featured a number of good wins against good teams. The SEC basically guarantees that every game is Q1 or Q2, so the Wildcats got fully 16 shots at Q1 opponents (going 5-11) and have played 19 teams in the current NCAA field–more than any other squad.
Kentucky is led by Mark Pope. Sound familiar? He was the head coach who led BYU for several seasons as they transitioned out of the WCC to the Big-12. After one season in the Big-12, he jumped to his alma mater to replace John Calipari who was run out of Lexington on a rail for reasons that only make sense to a Southern sports fan. Well Mark Pope is on a three-game losing streak to ol’Herb Sendek by virtue of his last couple of years at BYU. You may remember Jalen’s buzzer beater in the Leavey Center back to start that little streak. (If we are living through a new “era” of SCU basketball, I will mark its beginning with Jalen’s shot to beat BYU.) Pope is a well regarded coach whose teams tend to be elite on the offensive end and love the three-pointer.
Perhaps due to personnel or perhaps due to a shift in philosophy, these Wildcats are actually somewhat better on the defensive end, running teams off the arc and managing solid interior defense as well with a high rate of blocks. Kentucky plays at a quick but not frenetic pace. They do not force many turnovers, preferring to grind out defensive possessions and force hard shots than play for steals.
They also will travel en masse. Big Blue Nation, Kentucky Sports Radio, etc etc…this is Kentucky’s pro sports team. Playing the Zags in the Orleans will be good preparation for the Broncos. Santa Clara will have a mighty contingent filled with good vibes and energy. But it will be the Wildcats who pack the arena. The X-Factor: if Santa Clara can get a good run early, Kentucky is one of those fanbases with impossibly high standards that may turn on its own team. Don’t plan on the crowd helping on Friday morning, but relish the moment if it happens.
Likely Starters and Key Bench
| Height + Position | Player Name | Torvik Adj. Efficiency | PPG | Other Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-4 Guard | Otega Oweh | 3.8 | 18.2 | 4.6 rebs; 1.8 stls; 2.0 TOs |
| 6-5 Point Guard | Denzel Aberdeen | 3.6 | 13.2 | 3.6 asts; 35.1% from 3P |
| 6-5 Guard | Collin Chandler | 2.8 | 9.9 | 1.2 stls; 42.7% from 3P |
| 7-0 Forward | Malachi Moreno | 2.7 | 8.0 | 6.4 rebs; 1.6 blks |
| 6-11 Center | Andrija Jelavic | 1.1 | 5.8 | 3.9 rebs |
| 6-7 Forward | Mouhamed Dioubate | 2.6 | 8.7 | 5.5 rebs; 1.0 stls; 0.9 blks |
| 6-10 Forward | Brandon Garrison | 1.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 rebs; 64.1% FTs |
| 6-5 Point Guard | Jasper Johnson | 1.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 asts |
This Kentucky team makes its bones by taking smart, efficient shots and preventing good shots on the interior on the other end. The Wildcats do not turn the ball over easily, so we will see if the Broncos can generate the steals that lead to extra possessions–a key to Santa Clara’s success.
Speaking of extra possessions, if you’re looking for one major advantage for SCU today, start with shot volume (i.e. extra possessions). Cribbing Will Warren from Basket Under Review (who is himself using John Gassaway’s stat), Santa Clara is +5.0 shot attempts per 100 possessions against top-150 competition, giving SCU something like a 4-8 extra points in an average game. Kentucky is -0.1 by the same metric—no advantage gained by extra possessions.
A big part of this is that Kentucky’s defense doesn’t attempt to generate steals. And the Wildcats are merely a fine rebounding team. But its not all advantage Broncos: Santa Clara has gotten worse at defensive rebounding, highlighted by the shellacking on the glass that Santa Clara faced in Moraga before finding redemption in the desert. Kentucky is a good (not great) team at securing offensive boards, so the Broncos need to fight on the glass like they are playing the Gaels.
Remember that even though SCU has real, tangible advantages in this game, they are still fighting against a more athletic and “talented” roster that certainly cost a lot more money. Otega Oweh is an elite talent leading the offense. Collin Chandler is among the best three-point shooters the Broncos have faced. And Mo Dioubate has been looking good of late by scoring and securing rebounds. Kentucky may have a cruise control gear that they can reach on talent alone when everything is clicking; the Broncos don’t. They need to fight like the first SCU squad to reach the dance in 30 years.
The most important thing for the team, in my opinion, is to play loose. The spotlight is brighter than it has ever been, and the crowd will feel like an away game at the Kennel some of the time. Don’t let the pressure lead to stagnation. The Broncos have too many options to try forcing the wrong lever. SCU has won games based on Mahi going iso, Hammond’s floaters, Sash setting fire to the arc, Graves dominating the key and stretching the defense. Hell, they’ve even won a game where Ensminger was the leading scorer (probably won’t reoccur this game). Find what works rather than insisting on what doesn’t.
Kentucky definitely knows that Bukky and Allen can be neutralized through fouls. Bukky especially needs to play some highly disciplined basketball. Tournament officials tend to be less tight with the whistle, but the Broncos can’t rely on this. Play aggressive but above all, play intelligently.
The vibes are all coming up SCU right now. Make history, Broncos.
