Tip-off: Saturday, 4pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -7.7, 78% win probability
Torvik: Broncos 79, UNR 115 (still includes lots of preseason bias)
Nevada
Steve Alford is still at UNR, having kept the Wolf Pack (not to be confused with the compound Wolfpack of NC State) relevant in the Mountain West after Musselman put them back on the map basketball-wise. Nevada went to the NCAA Tournament in 2023 and 2024. Last year’s team seemed bound for the same if you only watched their 85-59 domination of SCU in Reno–and it wasn’t even that close. But last year’s Wolf Pack was really just a good mid-major, finishing 7th in the Mountain West. And the players who made that squad tick–Kobe Sanders and Nick Davidson–are now suiting up for new teams: the LA Clippers and Clemson Tigers, respectively. This new UNR team is undefeated but has yet to really impress, winning by only a single point at home against the WCC’s own UOP Tigers, for example. But here are the last four scores between Santa Clara and Nevada: 59-85, 96-74, 67-98, and 93-63. No game in the Sendek era has been decided by fewer than 20 points, and UNR’s three wins are by an average of 29 points.
In a series of blowouts, most of which go against Santa Clara, the Broncos are going to need to come in very fired up for this one no matter how vulnerable the Wolf Pack look. They were not that amazing last year, and SCU made them look like an NBA team.
(Likely) Starters:
- 6-1 guard Tayshawn Comer (17.3 pts, 3.7 asts, 1.3 steals, 23.1% from 3)
- 6-0 guard Tyler Rolison (7.7 pts, 5.0 asts, 22.2% from 3)
- 6-5 guard Corey Camper, Jr. (13.7 pts, 4.7 rebs, 25% from 3)
- 6-9 forward Elijah Price (12 pts, 12.3 rebs)
- 6-10 center Joel Armotrading (9.3 pts, 8.7 rebs)
Key Bench: 7-1 center Jeriah Coleman (1 pts, 1.5 rebs); 6-4 guard Chuck Bailey III (9 pts, 3.7 rebs, 46.2% from 3)
UNR is fresh off of an overtime battle in Reno against the Southern Illinois Salukis on Wednesday night, so the Broncos have the somewhat fresher legs.
Those who have been asking what SCU does when they face a team that is reliant and dominant in the front court…here it comes. Elijah Price and Joel Armotrading are likely the two best forwards that the Broncos will have faced on the young season. Both basically do only one thing well: rebound the ball. Now their stats are padded a decent amount by small sample size and the fact that UNR has played in multiple clank-fests due to their very low shooting percentages to date. But Price and Armotrading keep them in it by giving the Wolf Pack a lot of extra looks at the hoop…eventually some do go in.
I would never recommend not defending the perimeter, obviously. And I empathize deeply with those who get shivers thinking of Nevada’s three-point shooting last year. But it isn’t the Wolf Pack’s strength so far. This is the game to invest in packing the paint and securing the ball against an otherwise very inefficient offense. If Sendek wants to keep the defensive experimentation going and test out a zone for even short stretches, this is the game to do it.
Unlike the last two opponents, Nevada does not put much emphasis on forcing TOs. Santa Clara has done a really good job, especially at Xavier, finding the most efficient shot but has been a bit careless on the dribble. Nevada’s defense will be somewhat less aggressive, and Santa Clara should work to share the ball effectively and employ patient but decisive offense.
If Nevada only gets one look at the hoop, the Broncos should be able to win and win convincingly. If the Broncos let the Wolf Pack bully them in the paint, it could be a long night with the iron rims doing a lot of work.
Prediction: Broncos continue the blowouts but help right the ledger, 86-67 Santa Clara. Hammond gets 18 pts, 9 boards. Darlan uses his long arms for 4 steals.