With just about two weeks to go to the first game, give your best predictions of the Out of Conference results for our Broncos. As a reminder, here is the schedule with the current Torvik rankings of each opponent–the Broncos are a brutally low 192 in Torvik, but I don’t expect that to last.
Home games are in bold.
11/08 – Utah Tech (264)
11/11 – St. Francis PA (360)
11/14 – @Stanford (35)
11/18 – SE Louisiana (273)
11/20 – Mississippi Valley State (350)
11/24 – Oregon (33)
11/25 – Alabama (20) or Ohio State (42)
11/29 – Menlo College (non-D1)
12/02 – @Cal (96)
12/09 – New Mexico (51)
12/13 – Utah State (93)
12/16 – Washington State (72)
12/20 – @SJSU (104)
12/23 – Duquesne (57)
12/30 – Yale (78)
That’s 15 games in total, with 9 being pre-season top-100 teams per Torvik. Torvik, given the site’s low rating of the Broncos, predicts only 5 wins (including Menlo College) for a 5-10 record heading into WCC play.
What’s your pick for the OOC schedule? How do the Broncos do, and what are the traps or big opportunities in front of the team?
I think they will be 11 and 4 for the out of conference and end up 3rd in WCC. Unless there is an injury they will begin the season starting Carlos, Caffaro, Tilly, Johnny, and Jalen. They will go with a lineup at times of Johnny, AB, Carlos, Jake and Cam that will be fun.
Please point me to where I can bet the over on Torvik’s 5 non-con wins prediction.
Would be surprised and disappointed if we have less than 9 non-con wins. I’ll predict 10-5. Would go 11-4 but hedging given our lack of returning players…the first 5 games are relatively easy but I suspect we will lose one that we shouldn’t as the team gets acclimated to each other and lineups and playing rotation works itself out.
Other observations…I love Torvik but the preseason rankings are dubious. Stanford, Cal, WSU, SJSU, Duquesne and maybe Yale all look like inflated ratings IMO, grossly so in a few cases. Cal was garbage, ranked #265 last season, last year was the high water mark for SJSU at #103 but they lost their most talented player and are historically sub 250. Duquesne was #121 last season, #287 in 2022…why the big jump to top-60???
A lineup of Caffaro, Tilly, O’Neil, Marshall, and Benjamin might have a decent shot at being the tallest starting 5 in all of college ball. I’d worry a bit about the defense with that lineup, but I’d love to see it.
The last two seasons OOC we’ve lost 5&3 games respectively. This one is tougher, more resembles the pre season from 2 years ago, if not more difficult. I think 5 losses is more than fair considering our new crew.
I’ll make my conference predictions closer to January, but you’d think we have to beat smc/gonz a min of twice to finish in the top 2. We also wouldn’t be able to afford the Usf or pacific loss or two we usually get.
I think beating Gonzaga and St Marys once is doable. I also think they will go 1-1 against each other. I think we have better chances against LMU to go 2-0 whereas I believe St Marys will take an L.
This OOC schedule would actually rate as significantly harder if the projected Torvik rankings align with where they end up (unlikely–how different they are is the question).
Using Torvik, in 2021, the Broncos played three top-100 teams, going 1-2 against them (TCU being the big win). LA Tech was right outside the top-100 in '21–a Bronco loss.
In 2022, the Broncos played four top-100 teams, going 2-2 against them (wins against Iona and Boise State). UC Irvine and SJSU were also right outside the top-100 in '22–mixed results.
Here, the schedule (again, based only on preseason projections) calls for nine top-100 teams, double the previous years. SJSU waits just outside the top-100 for now.
If the Broncos can go 12-3 against the schedule, I think they get some buzz about a tournament bid. That’s roughly in line with 2021-22 USF, in which the Dons played eight top-100 teams, going 6-2 against them for 13-2 overall in the OOC.
I’ll put them just beneath that at 11-4 for the OOC, with a little ground to make up come conference time if they want to compete for a bid. Even 11-4 would be a pretty stellar outcome, I think, and is really putting faith in the rave preseason reviews and “secret scrimmage” results.
Thanks patty for in-depth analysis… my eyeball test (and mediocre memory) was close “ish”!
I like the Usf comparison from two years ago as a benchmark. They did, however, have a win over #1 Virginia to kick off the season which boosts many a resume over that finish line into the promised land.
Maybe, just maybe, we get a top 10 ranked Alabama in the preseason tourney.
The Virginia win was actually the prior year for USF. The Dons team that made the tourney didn’t have any preseason wins that were that special (nor did they get even a single win against Gonzaga and SMC). Their best win all season was against #46 Davidson on a neutral.
But the Dons were workmanlike that season, collecting lots of wins against opponents in that 50-120 range, even if they dropped pretty much every game to a top-50 opponent. That consistency was enough to get them in, albeit at a 10-seed. And they even managed to survive a loss to Portland.
The Broncos should have even more opportunities than that USF squad for signature wins–I think Oregon, OSU/Bama, and New Mexico will all be top-50 squads (less confident about Hasse and the Cardinal). But then they want to be solid against Duquesne, Utah State, etc. to really have a great resume.
It is just speculation. My son is at practices but I only get general information about how players are doing and the difficulty of practices - no inside information. Nobody has told me that is the probable starting lineup or anything regarding rotations.
