Tip-off: Thursday, 8 pm in Leavey.
TV: ESPN2 / ESPN+
Line: Torvik: SCU -13.7, 89% win probability; ESPN: 88.8% win probability, no line yet.
Loyola Marymount:
Close Santa Clara watchers have been rooting for the Lions the past couple of weeks, hoping that LMU’s absent offense could catch up to its solid defense and lift them in the NET and other metrics. LMU responded to such hopes with back-to-back goofs against Pacific and Portland. The Lions are now just 15-12 and 7-8 in the WCC.
But these Lions still have a bit of roar and, at their worst, will own a season split against both SCU and Oregon State. They came close to knocking off the Dons in Gersten as well, though USF closed that game out in a way that the ice cold Broncos could not. So there’s potential for drama here, and SCU really cannot afford to be swept by these Lions.
Starters:
- 6-3 guard Will Johnston (11.1pts, 2.3rebs, 3.0asts, 33.3% from 3)
- 6-7 wing Caleb Stone-Carrawell (13.8pts, 2.7rebs, 36% from 3)
- 6-11 forward Jevon Porter (12.7pts, 7.5 rebs, 1.3 blocks)
- 7-1 center Rick Issanza (2.2 pts, 2.7 rebs, ~1 block, plays just 13 min per game)
- 6-8 forward Alex Merkviladze (10.3 pts, 6.7 rebs, 33.1% from 3)
Key Bench:
- 6-6 guard Jan Vide (6.3 pts, 2.7rebs, 2.2asts, only 25% from 3)
- 6-2 guard Myron Amey, Jr. (8.4pts, 2.5rebs, 1.3stls)
The Lions are fresh off of a loss to Portland in which the Pilots lit the Lions up inside and outside the arc while LMU could hardly buy a shot. LMU had the same problem in the previous game against Pacific: the Tigers had the hot hand (especially occasional world beater, Lamar Washington) and LMU absolutely did not. In analytical terms, the Lions just turned in their two worst adjusted defensive performances all season. And this from a team that has maintained a top-100 defense throughout the season.
What was their best defensive performance this season, you ask? Well that was quite obviously against your Santa Clara Broncos who could not hit the ocean with Bryan, Stewart, O’Neil, and Mahi combining for 0-14 from beyond the arc (4-26 overall). Now if that game was the other side of the devil’s bargain that got us the win in Spokane two days later…well, I’ll accept it, I suppose. But the Broncos actually shot better than 50% from inside the arc (17 of 32). So SCU was doing just fine in the paint all game and could have won that way if they had simply given up on the three.
Santa Clara has seen the tape and will, I expect, adjust the strategy. I would not expect LMU’s awful defensive showing to continue in Leavey. But I do think that the Broncos can be effective inside. LMU’s interior defense is not that of the Gaels, and SCU was able to generate decent (under the circumstances) offense near the hoop in the last outing in Moraga. Pound the ball inside where able and don’t rely on the three to carry you to victory. SCU will take plenty of threes, but they should look inside first and then work outside. Just as I don’t think LMU puts in a third straight horrendous defensive performance, I doubt SCU shoots 15% from beyond the arc.
Style-wise, the Lions do not go for offensive boards, so the Broncos should be able to fight through the shot clock and secure the ball off of a miss. If SCU gets a couple of shot clock violations, they’ll be doing well. Some of the matchups are a bear, especially NBA-lite talent Jevon Porter, but there’s no individual player on LMU who is a top positional player in the conference. Rather, they are fairly balanced across all five positions with the possible exception of Issanza who functions solely for rim protection in limited minutes. LMU doesn’t shoot particularly well from three but well enough to take seriously at the perimeter.
This game ultimately comes down to a couple of X-factors. SCU has had 9 days off. Are they rested or rusty? And LMU has turned in two absolute clunkers in a row. Are they motivated and angry or resigned? If a rusty SCU meets a determined LMU, watch out. SCU should win this, probably with the walk-ons doing cleanup at the end, but the gap is not big enough to take this game lightly.
Looking at the big picture, for any shot at third, Santa Clara has to win all of the non-Gonzaga matches and hope that USF really slips up. USF is one game ahead in the standings but effectively two games ahead in seeding due to the tie-breaker (record against SMC). SCU probably has to win out to take 3rd (still a mathematical shot at 2nd). But a loss to any of LMU, Wazzu, or Pacific condemns SCU to the 4 seed and potentially worse.
Prediction: Broncos shake off rust but figure it out in the second half, 86-73 Santa Clara. Bal, who has quietly been Santa Clara’s most consistent player, gets 18 points and dishes out 6 assists.
