Tip-off: Thursday, 7 pm at Gersten Pavilion in Los Angeles.
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: SCU -3.2, 62% win probability; ESPN: 64.5% win probability, no line yet.
Loyola Marymount:
The Lions are 9-8 and an ugly 1-4 in the WCC. But don’t let that lull you to sleep. Per Torvik, they have played the toughest conference schedule so far, with 6 straight tilts against the teams vying to finish above LMU–with Santa Clara being the sixth and final game of the brutal stretch (not counting the postponed Pepperdine game). It has been an up-and-down season for the Lions and an especially challenging couple of weeks. They walloped a Beaver team that was probably looking past them by 21 points in LA. Then they took two standard issue losses to SMC and GU. Then the fires hit, postponing the Pepperdine game and generally causing chaos in the greater LA area. The fires aren’t threatening LMU directly, but this is a game to keep tabs on because who really knows what happens in the next three days with smoke and disaster response.
Many things are bigger than basketball. Our prayers are with all of the greater LA area, and especially our friendly rivals on the Bluff and in Malibu.
Starters:
- 6-3 guard Will Johnston (12.1pts, 2.6rebs, 1.1steals, 3.2asts, 34.6% from 3)
- 6-7 wing Caleb Stone-Carrawell (13.5pts, 2.5rebs, 39.1% from 3)
- 6-11 forward Jevon Porter (13.7pts, 7.8 rebs, 1.4 blocks)
- 7-1 center Rick Issanza (1.8 pts, 3.3 rebs, 1 block, only a 25% FT shooter and plays just 10 min per game)
- 6-8 forward Alex Merkviladze (10.5 pts, 6.6 rebs, 35.2% from 3)
Key Bench:
- 6-6 guard Jan Vide (5.7 pts, 2.6rebs, 2.2asts, 33% from 3)
- 6-2 guard Myron Amey, Jr. (7.5pts, 2.4rebs, 1.2stls)
The Lions are not as bad as their record indicates. They only have one truly bad loss: a 77-73 hiccup to North Dakota (not the same and significantly worse than NDSU who owns SCU’s worst loss). The rest of the losses are all to top-100 teams, albeit mostly noncompetitive blowouts. But LMU’s throttling of the Oregon State Beavers two weeks ago shows what this squad can do if you’re looking past them.
This LMU squad is pretty uninspired on the offensive end. In some ways, they are a poster child for why SCU was right to kill the mid-range jumper: LMU takes almost as many mid-range 2s as they do layups and convert those jumpers only a little better than they do 3-pointers (38% to 33%). Add to that the Lions’ pretty abysmal offensive rebounding numbers, and you have a rather inefficient offense for the talent on the team.
Their defense is somewhat better, though you can see the coaching lineage from Sendek to Johnson: they force few turnovers and don’t foul much, keeping the other team from getting too many points from the stripe. But they guard shooters well, and as a result, the analytics like the Lions’ defense slightly more than the Broncos.
Zooming out, the Broncos should win this game by 10 points. The SCU offense is nearly-elite and can win a game even if only 3/4 of it shows up. LMU barely pulls in any offensive rebounds, preferring transition defense, and isn’t great at defensive rebounding either, so the Broncos should be able to crash the boards for second-chance points. The Lions don’t overplay on passes, so some of the pick-and-roll to Tilly and Tongue should be viable.
But it will be a matter of mental discipline for a hot Broncos squad not looking ahead to GU. Add in the X-factor of the devastating fires. Are the LMU players just exhausted from over a week of real-life chaos (understandable if so) or do they come out with some moral determination to use the game as catharsis, with a full week of rest at their backs? If the latter, SCU needs to be focused and ready to weather the storm. If Santa Clara plays defense like on Saturday, they’ll be fine. But if bad habits creep back in, they may be trapped in an unexpected dogfight (like @USD) or just left sucker-punched (like OSU after visiting Gersten).
Prediction: Broncos start a little slow but figure it out in the second half, 81-74 Santa Clara. Bal shows out with 23 and 7 assists.