Patty - is Minnesota’s free-fall of any serious concern of ours, in terms of changing from one quadrant to the next?
I like it as well but I was SO used to Thurs/sat that I’ve almost missed a couple games this year
If you haven’t bought tickets for the Gonzaga game yet, you can now do so without having to buy tickets to another game.
Also, per the WCC website, WCC Tournament single game tickets go on sale Feb 3rd (all-access passes have been on sale for a few weeks already).
For SCU’s purposes, Minn is actually not in free fall. Check out this chart of Minnesota’s NET rankings this season. They’ve continued to plateau and rise, even with the losses.
Since NET is an efficiency metric at its core, teams can rise with closer-than-expected losses and fall with closer-than-expected wins. The resume stuff will determine whether or not a team gets a bid. But in theory, a team could lose by 2 points to Michigan/Arizona for 30 straight games and be a top-25 or so NET team that won’t get into the Tournament.
The Big 10 has a claim as the best basketball league in the country right now. So Minnesota can maintain or rise in the NET as long as they play really good competition closely, win or lose.
For SCU’s NET watch: Minnesota and ASU look pretty solid for now, though watch ASU in case the wheels fall off with Hurley’s attitude. SMC is the most precarious win, with a strong likelihood of dropping (hopefully just temporarily) to Q2 if the Gaels lose in Spokane. McNeese is always a risk because, even though they have a decent buffer (would have to drop 20 spots to go from Q2 to Q3), their league is so weak that a single loss at home could have a devastating effect. Nevada is similar–they have cushion, but a loss to Fresno State or something could take them out of Q2.
None of SCU’s wins are likely to improve. The NET is stickier now with more data, so moves of more than 7-8 spots are reserved for big wins/awful losses. I held out hope for Xavier to climb, but that hope is gone. They should remain a Q2 win but won’t rise to Q1. Loyola Chicago could probably win out and still wouldn’t end as anything other than a Q4 loss for SCU. Remember that SCU would be like an 8-9 seed in most brackets if they just didn’t lose to the Ramblers…
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Patty, I’m trying my hardest NOT to remember this every day!
Thank you so much for the analysis. I agree on the stickiness becoming noticeable - we didn’t move at all with our recent win, and USF is not a 200+ scrub. Seems like legitimate wins and bad losses are what move the needle now.
Given the win over SMC, do we want them to beat GU in Spokane? Or are we rooting for the longer con of SMC not getting a Q1 win at any point and playing in the NIT? I have a hard time doing the latter. I like a three bid WCC - may be the last time in a long time.
We are asking the universe for a lot in terms of a potential at-large, but I’m enjoying even this moment in the sun of being in the picture. It’s great for SCU.
And we are (or I am) turning a corner from “would be happy to be in the NIT” to “would be frustrated not to be in the NCAA tournament”. It’s been a long climb.
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I’ve been wondering this a bit this week. The rooting guide on Torvik that you shared suggests that SCU should root for Gonzaga for analytic purposes. But that doesn’t capture the full picture. Here are the pros/cons as I see them:
SMC Wins
- Santa Clara enters a three-way tie for First in the WCC, but…
- the odds of finishing third also increase unless SCU can sweep Saint Mary’s.
- SMC is cemented as a Q1 win and a high-quality victory for SCU.
- Three-bid WCC becomes more likely with SMC likely to get a bid even if SCU sweeps the Gaels.
- Spiritual victory in having a rival staying with the WCC beating the rival that is leaving.
Gonzaga Wins
- SCU is in sole place for second and may even be favored to finish there (will still require sweeping 4-12 teams and maybe beating SMC in Moraga to be guaranteed, though).
- SMC will, at least temporarily, drop out of being a Q1 win for Santa Clara, raising the importance of beating GU/SMC at least one more time, if not twice.
In the end, I think that SMC winning is the right outcome for “gamblers” (which may include me) who are greedy and want that shot at SCU actually winning the conference for the first time in…who knows? Plus, there are some tangible benefits of SMC winning for SCU in terms of resume and “vibes.”
On the other hand, if you’re conservative, it’s maybe better that SCU keeps its inside path to 2nd place even if finishing on top becomes more remote (which it already is).
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I will be watching with tremendous interest.
That said, it seems to be that, in the end, it’s really Santa Clara’s games that matter most to Santa Clara - either result in Spokane can be framed as good or bad. Seems that Ike is going to play.
I am simply rooting for Santa Clara to take care of business and make the Valentine’s Day game against Gonzaga the biggest game on the Mission Campus since …. who knows? I suppose Gonzaga not losing in the interim would make that came a little more interesting, but should they drop one and the Broncos win out until then, there would be a notional path to WCC regular season championship.
I do tend a little along the line that we’ve beat SMC already - since that’s in-hand, we want that win to look as good as possible. And I think SMC will remain in the WCC, and I like that - and want them to keep being a strong program.
On the other hand, we need to find another Q1 win somewhere and I strongly feel that vs. GU in the Leavey Center is more winnable that in Moraga.
It’s all fun to dream.
Beat LMU.
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Basically every game from here on out is the biggest game for SCU in X years (where X > 20) until either the Broncos lose a head-scratcher or their season ends in the Tournament.
Pacific remains the scariest game to me because I think the Tigers are as good as USF and a tougher matchup for SCU. They are also undefeated in Spanos.
But given that LMU is the next “most important game in 20+ years,” just focus on beating the Lions, then move on to the Tigers (still a disappointment that there are no bears in the WCC).
Cart way, way, way before the horse. But if SCU can get to GU before dropping a game, there are a couple of scheduling advantages that will take shape. First, SCU gets a bye after GU, so the Broncos can leave it all on the court with abandon, like against SMC. Second, SMC’s last two games are hosting SCU and then GU just three days later. Can the Gaels stay focused on the Broncos with potentially the last GU-SMC game in Moraga so close behind?
I agree that, in a vacuum, @Spanos is the scariest non-GU/SMC game left.
The century-plus of accumulated bad blood and fluky bounces make the trip the Hilltop the scariest for me, even though I know there will be lots of red in the building (myself likely included).
By then, we will have even more data on what is at stake, and if the stakes remain truly elevated, I may have to do what my dad did during Kings playoff games - peak at the TV from behind the couch!
There might be an “if/then” set of scenarios.
If SMC beats Gonzaga tomorrow night, then it seems we’d root for SMC to beat the Zags again when they play them in Moraga last game of the season AND we’d need to take the game at home against the Spokaners. SMC certainly has a chance, they’ve beaten Gonzaga in the Kennel the past couple of years.
If Gonzaga wins tomorrow night, then I think we’d want Gonzaga to beat SMC again that last game of the season. As long as we take care of business the rest of the way, and beat either Gonzaga or SMC, then we’d finish in second, right? And would likely matchup with SMC again in the semifinal. Getting that triple buy would be huge.
@PattyMac I’d rather hone in on the 2nd place finish. I think a run at 1st is a tall order. We can think about 1st after Gonzaga bails on the WCC.
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Totally valid. The path to first would require one or both of SCU winning every game through the rest of conference play or GU dropping 1-2 games to a team other than SMC/SCU. That’s such a tall task, but I want it sooo badly as a parting gift for the Zags.
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That would certainly be sweet. I’m also salivating at the possibility that Gonzaga stops being a perennial powerhouse once they move into the PAC.
It would certainly be nice to effectively say to them: “Don’t let the door hit you in the a$$ on your way out!”
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I have to say, aside from Gonzaga/SMC, the one big matchup that scares me is Pacific. Smart is an excellent coach. I’ve looked back at some of their games this year, and they were very close in a few of them against decent competition. That program could certainly be a top-4 team in the new WCC next year.
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FWIW, Torvik’s “Root For Guide” says we should be rooting for Gonzaga to beat SMC.
A couple of puzzling “Root Fors” for Saturday’s games:
DePaul @ Xavier: Torvik says root for DePaul, but it seems to me we’d want Xavier, hopefully getting them into top-75 and turning into a Q1 win for the Broncos. Xavier is at 96, DePaul at 107.
Indiana (32) @ UCLA (40): Torvik says root for UCLA. Given that the Broncos are ranked 44, I’d think it is more likely SCU could surpass UCLA than Indiana in NET.
Otherwise, there are 5 games (other than SCU) that have the most leverage for the Broncos:
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It makes some truly bizarre picks, including occasionally a high-leverage game between two teams whose connection to SCU seems truly remote…
Anyway, an interesting article on Miami and their weak SOS. You can see Torvik always wants them to lose in connection with SCU’s chances. I’d say a team with say two losses (one in conference play, one in their tournament) would be hard to leave home. But the math wouldn’t like that resume.
Note the site is a Xavier blog, and Miami’s coach formerly coached Xavier. Relatedly, the mighty Big East may send but three teams to the Big Dance. It’s a top heavy year in College Basketball.
Patty…..I’m looking forward to GU/SMC and valid points made for each team winning as it relates to our Broncos. Of course, we tip off 90 min ahead down at LMU and need to focus on our business first or as Al Davis so eloquently stated:
“JUST WIN BABY”
That will have to be our mantra going forward one game at a time.
Go Broncos!!!
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Wazzu hung 100 on Portland and should take a nice jump into Q2 territory. That’s good news for our Broncos who will need the help (and the win, obviously).
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While working at home this afternoon, I’ve got the Miami(OH) vs. Buffalo game on in the background. In the first matchup this season, the Redhawks squeaked by with a final score of 105-102. In this game, the Bulls are hanging tough going into halftime down 3.
I have to be honest, I am not particularly impressed with Miami(OH). I truly believe SCU would beat them 7 out of 10 times, maybe better. I’m having a hard time believing they’ll run their regular season undefeated, though I’ll be rooting for them to win their conference tourney. I don’t want to even risk a scenario where that conference gets two bids because of a Miami loss in the conf final.
EDIT TO ADD: According to Warren Nolen’s ( Strength of Schedule (SOS) - Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com ), the Broncos have the 86th most difficult schedule; the Redhawks are at 292.
Good article on the NIL situations at Utah State and San Diego State. You can hear them already letting their fans know that Gonzaga will be at an advantage because there is no NIL to share with football. While Athletic Directors are going to do what they think is best, hard to imagine the coaches in the new Pac 12 would want another non football school (St.Mary’s) in the league.
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