Santa Clara is amongst the group of “The Next 4 Out”.
NCAA:
Gonzaga…….#2 Seed
St. Mary’s……#8 Seed
NIT:
Santa Clara…..#2 Seed
Seattle……………#4 Seed
Note: The 16 team CBC post season tournament involving the power conferences (Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, and ACC) is factored in which allows more mid majors an opportunity to play in the NIT. We’re in the discussion and presently relevant as it relates to the dance. Quite candidly, I didn’t expect that with this squad with all the losses we suffered due to graduation and transfers, so I remain very encouraged on what can be this season.
Given that the NCAA owns the NIT, what is the point of the NIT? Why not just have a big dance of 96 (or 100 if they still want an 8-squad play-in round) teams, and treat the bottom teams (say seeds 33-96) play each other in the first round, with 1-32 having a bye? The ratings would certainly be higher. If they want to keep the NIT, then have it as a loser’s bracket after the first round.
Playing a tourney to claim you’re the 65th best team in the nation is lame.
I don’t disagree with you. The CBC in Vegas last year was a disaster as the transfer portal opened up prior to the tournament and there was a mass exodus of players…..Oregon St being an example.
There’s been chatter of NCAA tournament expansion to 72 or 76 teams, possibly as early as next season. I think we’re far away from an expansion to 96 teams.
Now’s the time to get rid of all other postseason tourneys (except the main NCAA tourney).
In replacement have an “fa cup” style tourney that runs the length of the season. Every team in the country (even throw in d2/3) and have randomly selected matchups every couple weeks. I’d tune in to watch Kansas have to go play in a tiny d3 school that would have a heck of an atmosphere. Have the final the week after the tourney final. It would take 10 rounds to complete with all 1400 schools.
Good opportunity for big schools to give their bench playing time. Everybody makes more money. Win-win.
Fascinating insights that we all see when we watch the games. These insights contribute to bracketology and the below diagrams paint a picture of relative efficiency between the Broncos and the greater field.
A few links for Monday morning. Here’s a bracketologist that gives a good breakdown of how teams are selected and provides his own bracket as of today. You’ll see SCU in his Next Four Out.
No surprises here, but the Broncos are approaching “in position to be in position” but will need to keep accumulating wins–probably the 25 estimated by this site
Beating SMC helps, but SCU is about to hit a very tough stretch of schedule with a lot of away games. At USD is the “easiest” game until the conference finale hosting the Beavers. Both the link above and this one give estimates on conference tourney seeding which jumped considerably for SCU after beating SMC.
25 wins suggests going 8-2 the rest of the way in conference play (with the two losses being only to SMC and Gonzaga), plus need one win in the WCC tourney. Under this scenario, and if SMC takes care of their business, we’d likely end up tied with them at 2nd place, and they’d win the tie-breaker based on NET ranking and we’d be the 3-seed. It’s a stretch, but hopefully the boys can stayed focused on each game in front of them instead of looking past a “weak” team. We’ve seen it in years past when SCU has gotten derailed by a bottom-half WCC squad.
As we’ve seen, this team can beat anyone on the Conference schedule. We’ve also seen them upchuck at inopportune times. But I’m back on the Hope train, clinging on for dear life.
For my part, I fear the trip to Stockton most of all. The Tigers are tough and well-coached. And UOP doesn’t yet offer much in the way of emotional motivation like USF. If there’s an opponent that can yet really catch SCU flat-footed, I think it’s UOP.
I think he’s assuming that SMC picks up a Q1 win somewhere along the way and has no bad losses–a fairly reliable assumption with recent Bennett squads.
Put it this way, I think that if Santa Clara hadn’t lost to Loyola, SCU would be solidly in as a 9 seed, and SMC would be bumped down to 10 and “Last Four Byes.” But SCU has a lot of ground to make up for Loyola, and SMC just needs to hold serve and get a Q1 win: they’ll likely have at least three opportunities: two against Gonzaga and once in Vegas against either Gonzaga or SCU. That will be enough for them.
I think SCU needs one of the likely three games to be played against SMC/GU. But SCU also can’t afford losing to say, Seattle at home or Wazzu in Pullman. If SMC did either, they’d be able to survive it since they don’t have any other bad losses. It’s not clear that Santa Clara would be able to. Or if SCU did lose one of those, then you need to take 2/3 from SMC/GU to make up for it.
The Bauertology author responded to a question on Reddit regarding SCU this way:
“Santa Clara is a really interesting case–they’d probably in the field for me altogether if not for that loss to Loyola. I’d say that if they win out the rest of WCC play, save for one of those two games against Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, they’d be in a pretty great spot for a bid. If they lose both of those games, however, I wouldn’t feel as certain, since teams in power conferences will have more opportunities than Santa Clara to spruce up their own résumés. I’d guess that they need one of the three remaining SMC/Zags game at minimum, two preferably, to really be in this thing.”
For true bubble teams, their hopes for at-large bids will largely rest on how the conference tournaments for non-power 5 (or in CBB, power 6 because of the Big East) go. If the best teams in those conferences win their tournaments, then the risks of the best teams in said conferences getting an at-large bid are mitigated. For example, if Miami (OH) loses its conference tournament to Toledo, then the Redhawks would likely get an at-large at the expense of a bubble team and the MAC would get 2 teams in the Big Dance. There are 31 conferences with autobids, and therefore just 37 at-large bids available. We need the highest-ranked teams in each of the non-power conference to hold serve. History says there will be some who do not. Hopefully those are in conferences with “weak” (in terms of NET rankings) top teams who would be unlikely to get an at-large bid.
I note that on today’s Net Rankings, we are the highest ranked team with a Q4 loss of any kind (43).
It isn’t the coaching staff’s fault that LUC is so terrible this year, but what a bummer game - no one in the stands, very few diehards paying to watch on the stream.
The Leavey Center is hardly Assembly Hall or Cameron Indoor, but it feels to me that we win that game at home (and probably 9 times of 10 in Santa Cruz…).
It’s a two point loss that could be the hinge point not only on what is otherwise a great season, but potentially an inflection point on the next five years of SCU hoops. Keeps me up at night!
That said, we’re very lucky to even have a thread called Bracketology - true consideration for an at large bid for the first time since…. Y2K?
