Tip-off: Wednesday, 6 pm at the Leavey Center
TV: ESPNU/ESPN+
Line: Torvik: SCU +1, 47% win probability; ESPN: 37.1% win probability, no line yet.
The Gaels:
It can be easy to forget that SMC is the two-time defending WCC champion. The Zags have the national media exposure, resources, and swagger. But Randy Bennett has quietly put together the best (or at least most consistent) team in the conference for three straight seasons. This year’s edition visits the Leavey Center as 18-3 and a perfect 8-0 in the WCC. They’ve had the easiest WCC schedule to date. But the Gaels have done just fine dismantling the Dons in Moraga and pushing back a decent Washington State team on the Palouse. So whatever doubts are being harbored about the Gaels (and I’ve had a couple), Coach Bennett is systematically choking them out much as his patient offense and physical defense tend to do to opponents.
Starters:
- 6-8 forward Paulius Murauskus (13.3pts, 8.7rebs, 32.8% from 3)
- 6-6 wing Luke Barrett (10.6pts, 7.0rebs, 1stl, 31.2% from 3)
- 6-10 center Mitchell Saxen (10.4pts, 7.9 rebs, 1.5stls, 1.3blks, reigning DPOY)
- 6-4 guard Augustas Marciulionis (13.9pts, 2.4 rebs, 5.7asts, 36% from 3, reigning POY)
- 6-3 guard Jordan Ross (9.1pts, 3 rebs, 3.2asts, 35.2% from 3)
Key Bench:
- 6-8 forward Ashton Hardaway (2.7pts, Penny Hardaway’s son)
- 6-3 guard Mikey Lewis (9.1pts, 39.3% from 3)
- 7-1 center Harry Wessels (4pts, 2.5rebs)
Did you like Oregon State’s bruising defense and the Beavers testing SCU’s interior? Well then you’ll love Saint Mary’s. The team’s identity is as strong as ever with tight defense, strong rebounding, and a sloooooow pace of play. SMC is relatively fresh off a 20 point demolition of the USF Dons in which they only bothered to take 5 three-pointers and only made one of 'em. Didn’t matter. The Gaels pounded the ball inside, testing the Dons rim protection and defense. USF couldn’t handle it.
If USF is the cautionary tale for SCU, then Utah State might be the roadmap. The Aggies took the ball inside on SMC, insisting on getting shots at the rim. Saxen and Marciulionis ended up in foul trouble, Utah State converted a few open looks from 3, and the Aggies pulled just out of reach in the end.
Now you could try to rain threes on this Gaels team. Merrimack, for instance, almost got that to work in Moraga. And SMC isn’t world-beating at perimeter defense. But you’re at least as likely to be embarrassed like USF or USC as you are to steal a win against the Gaels. SMC limits the number of possessions and rebounds about as well as any team in the country. Therefore, you better be very hot if you expect to beat Saint Mary’s from the three-point line: you’ll only have so many looks at the hoop and there will be few, if any, second chances.
So what are the weaknesses? Well, this game will be the Gael’s first Quad 1 game of the season. So playing at SCU is, at least in the analytics, the toughest test for SMC so far. That may mean something…but don’t count on it. And Murauskas and Saxen, though a dominant front court, are prone to fouling. The most successful teams against SMC to date have worked to draw fouls, especially against Saxen, to limit key players.
This Gaels team is also (weirdly) one of the worst shooting teams to come from Moraga in recent memory. They are relatively inefficient both from the arc and inside. But what makes all the difference is their rebounding. Every Gael can pull in rebounds, perhaps none as effectively as pure hustle-man, Luke Barrett. They are second-best in the country at pulling in offensive boards. The reality is that you don’t have to be that great at shooting if you can get 2-3 shots at the hoop every possession.
Santa Clara needs to play tough inside, much tougher than against OSU with certain personnel excepted. Saxen is tougher than Fallah and Murauskas much stronger than Lelevicius. You have to keep them off of the glass which will fall as much to SCU’s guards as the front court–Saxen and Murauskas will seal off the opposing forward/center to allow Barrett to swoop in for the rebound. If you don’t have a man on Barrett, it doesn’t matter how well you box out the other two. And look, Santa Clara should definitely take a few threes. But threes won’t get the fouls on Saxen that are needed, and every one that you miss equals a lost possession that SMC will more-likely-than-not convert on the other end.
X-Factors:
- Gonzaga is next up for SMC on Saturday. I don’t ever expect a Bennett-coached team to look past an opponent, but if anyone were to get the benefit of a little nervous energy from the Gaels, it’s the squad facing them immediately before the Zags.
- The students are organizing to be in force for this one. Since the Gonzaga game is so late in the season, there’s a bigger push to be at full strength against the Gaels. The students have done relatively well this season showing up. Hopefully, they put a good crowd together.
- Bryan, Tongue, Bal…lots of injuries or almost injuries over the last couple of games. Who’s available for SMC? And is McEldon still on the team/back from the UK? He’s a much better reserve to rely on against a physical SMC than skinny and raw Oboye.
Prediction: SCU shows fight but falls short, 76-69 Saint Mary’s. Mahi finally (finally) has a good game and gets 17 points.