WCC Game 10: Saint Mary's

Tip-off: Wednesday, 6 pm at the Leavey Center
TV: ESPNU/ESPN+
Line: Torvik: SCU +1, 47% win probability; ESPN: 37.1% win probability, no line yet.

The Gaels:
It can be easy to forget that SMC is the two-time defending WCC champion. The Zags have the national media exposure, resources, and swagger. But Randy Bennett has quietly put together the best (or at least most consistent) team in the conference for three straight seasons. This year’s edition visits the Leavey Center as 18-3 and a perfect 8-0 in the WCC. They’ve had the easiest WCC schedule to date. But the Gaels have done just fine dismantling the Dons in Moraga and pushing back a decent Washington State team on the Palouse. So whatever doubts are being harbored about the Gaels (and I’ve had a couple), Coach Bennett is systematically choking them out much as his patient offense and physical defense tend to do to opponents.

Starters:

  • 6-8 forward Paulius Murauskus (13.3pts, 8.7rebs, 32.8% from 3)
  • 6-6 wing Luke Barrett (10.6pts, 7.0rebs, 1stl, 31.2% from 3)
  • 6-10 center Mitchell Saxen (10.4pts, 7.9 rebs, 1.5stls, 1.3blks, reigning DPOY)
  • 6-4 guard Augustas Marciulionis (13.9pts, 2.4 rebs, 5.7asts, 36% from 3, reigning POY)
  • 6-3 guard Jordan Ross (9.1pts, 3 rebs, 3.2asts, 35.2% from 3)

Key Bench:

  • 6-8 forward Ashton Hardaway (2.7pts, Penny Hardaway’s son)
  • 6-3 guard Mikey Lewis (9.1pts, 39.3% from 3)
  • 7-1 center Harry Wessels (4pts, 2.5rebs)

Did you like Oregon State’s bruising defense and the Beavers testing SCU’s interior? Well then you’ll love Saint Mary’s. The team’s identity is as strong as ever with tight defense, strong rebounding, and a sloooooow pace of play. SMC is relatively fresh off a 20 point demolition of the USF Dons in which they only bothered to take 5 three-pointers and only made one of 'em. Didn’t matter. The Gaels pounded the ball inside, testing the Dons rim protection and defense. USF couldn’t handle it.

If USF is the cautionary tale for SCU, then Utah State might be the roadmap. The Aggies took the ball inside on SMC, insisting on getting shots at the rim. Saxen and Marciulionis ended up in foul trouble, Utah State converted a few open looks from 3, and the Aggies pulled just out of reach in the end.

Now you could try to rain threes on this Gaels team. Merrimack, for instance, almost got that to work in Moraga. And SMC isn’t world-beating at perimeter defense. But you’re at least as likely to be embarrassed like USF or USC as you are to steal a win against the Gaels. SMC limits the number of possessions and rebounds about as well as any team in the country. Therefore, you better be very hot if you expect to beat Saint Mary’s from the three-point line: you’ll only have so many looks at the hoop and there will be few, if any, second chances.

So what are the weaknesses? Well, this game will be the Gael’s first Quad 1 game of the season. So playing at SCU is, at least in the analytics, the toughest test for SMC so far. That may mean something…but don’t count on it. And Murauskas and Saxen, though a dominant front court, are prone to fouling. The most successful teams against SMC to date have worked to draw fouls, especially against Saxen, to limit key players.

This Gaels team is also (weirdly) one of the worst shooting teams to come from Moraga in recent memory. They are relatively inefficient both from the arc and inside. But what makes all the difference is their rebounding. Every Gael can pull in rebounds, perhaps none as effectively as pure hustle-man, Luke Barrett. They are second-best in the country at pulling in offensive boards. The reality is that you don’t have to be that great at shooting if you can get 2-3 shots at the hoop every possession.

Santa Clara needs to play tough inside, much tougher than against OSU with certain personnel excepted. Saxen is tougher than Fallah and Murauskas much stronger than Lelevicius. You have to keep them off of the glass which will fall as much to SCU’s guards as the front court–Saxen and Murauskas will seal off the opposing forward/center to allow Barrett to swoop in for the rebound. If you don’t have a man on Barrett, it doesn’t matter how well you box out the other two. And look, Santa Clara should definitely take a few threes. But threes won’t get the fouls on Saxen that are needed, and every one that you miss equals a lost possession that SMC will more-likely-than-not convert on the other end.

X-Factors:

  • Gonzaga is next up for SMC on Saturday. I don’t ever expect a Bennett-coached team to look past an opponent, but if anyone were to get the benefit of a little nervous energy from the Gaels, it’s the squad facing them immediately before the Zags.
  • The students are organizing to be in force for this one. Since the Gonzaga game is so late in the season, there’s a bigger push to be at full strength against the Gaels. The students have done relatively well this season showing up. Hopefully, they put a good crowd together.
  • Bryan, Tongue, Bal…lots of injuries or almost injuries over the last couple of games. Who’s available for SMC? And is McEldon still on the team/back from the UK? He’s a much better reserve to rely on against a physical SMC than skinny and raw Oboye.

Prediction: SCU shows fight but falls short, 76-69 Saint Mary’s. Mahi finally (finally) has a good game and gets 17 points.

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Do you really expect Sendek to tell his players to initiate contact in the front court in an attempt to draw fouls? I’ve seen nothing that suggests so.

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I can’t give insight into what Sendek will do. I can only report on what seems effective. In the three games that SMC has lost to date and the closest wins (Pacific, Wazzu, Nebraska, Merrimack), at least one or two of Saxen, Barrett, Murauskas, and Marciulionis were in foul trouble.

The Gaels are a different team if they have to be conservative with one or two of those four. How that affects SCU’s strategy is a question for the folks actually in the locker room.

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My comment wasn’t meant to be confrontational or accusatorial. It was meant as a rhetorical question. I think we know the answer. I hope I am wrong.

Somebody needs to leave a copy of Sun-Tzu’s The Art of War for Sendek to read.

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No worries, @buckets

All good.

These two teams are polar opposites in style and tempo and what they hang their hat on. The team who can dictate or come closest to playing their preferred style and pace will have the upper hand.

I agree the foul trouble especially for Saxen could be SMC’s Achilles heel. The problem is, and I’ve been harping on this all year, is the Broncos do not draw many fouls, ranked 284th on Torvik in free throw rate. A byproduct mostly of our style of play and heavy reliance on 3pointers. But even when our guards are driving they aren’t ones to seek contact, ie- Bal is shooting floaters, not seeking out contact……Stewart is usually executing an acrobatic reverse, not seeking contact. Cam is the only rotation player with a high FT rate.

Re: SMC’s 3pt shooting defense……while their 3pt shooting % allowed is only above average, not spectacular (ranked 123rd, roughly top 3rd), their 3pt attempt rate allowed is ranked 12th which is just or more important. You can’t make 3’s if you can’t get the shot off in the first place. SMC limits 3’s so much that the shooting % allowed becomes less critical.

Finally, they’re coming off their 2nd worst defensive performance of the year vs. WSU. WSU played them even in most stats, shooting % was high and nearly identical for both teams, TO’s a wash, each made 13 FT’s (WSU was 13/13, SMC 13/14)…. the only appreciable difference was SMC outrebounded WSU by 6 and won by 5pts. The Broncos need to do everything in their power to at least play SMC even on the boards.

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From a seeding and little computer algorithm number standpoint, do we want GU or Oregon State to win tonight in the Kennel?

I think in terms of our WCC finish, Oregon State, but in terms of our win in Spokane looking better on a resume, GU. Since an at large probably requires winning out until the WCC Championship, I suppose we root against the Zags (easy enough)?

I think winning out is just too much to ask (or hope) for. It would require a significant change from what seems to be a “one size fits all” approach to our game scheme.

I’ll be attending my first game of the season tomorrow night (I live in SoCal), so it’ll be interesting to see if I notice anything different than what I see on TV. Hopefully the students turn out for this game. Might be a lot to ask for a mid-week game.

I took a look at last year’s game in Moraga. SCU managed to get 16 offensive boards against the Gaels, including 5 from Tongue alone. Bryan, O’Neil, and Ensminger got 2 each. Last year’s version of Murauskas–Joshua Jefferson, now a star on Iowa State–fouled out.

Now that game required a 20 point comeback by SCU which didn’t work then and won’t work tomorrow. But I just reference the stats to show that the Broncos can compete on the glass with the Gaels and maybe even draw some fouls if they put their effort there. Last year’s SCU edition was not nearly as good as this year’s.

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Talent-wise, very true. But perhaps this year’s version just hasn’t quite jelled given the addition of Mahi and the return of Carlos?

It’s not just talent. The Broncos have an elite offense or nearly elite offense. They just merely have an above-average defense that sometimes reverts to a bad defense. Sendek had elite defenses when he was at Arizona State, but that was at the expense of tempo–his Sun Devil teams that were great at defense also played really slowly a la SMC. And really good defense tends to correlate somewhat with slow pace. Look at Houston, the best defense in the country, and one of the 10 slowest teams.

But faster teams with elite defenses exist. This season, St. John’s, Illinois, and UC Irvine are good examples. The common thread between them seems to be having 1-2 very talented rim protectors. The Broncos don’t have that. Or look at the difference between 2022 Gonzaga (elite defense due to Holmgren’s rim protection) and 2023 Gonzaga (merely good defense).

So if the Broncos are going to play somewhat fast, and I don’t see a reason for them not to, they need to look at Pitino and Underwood and Turner to see how they run the defensive end. Part of it is personnel (like Gonzaga with Holmgren versus without) but part is certainly schematic, and I’m not sure Sendek knows how to push pace and play solid D.

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I would expect Broncos to run as much as possible and not allow SMC to get set defensively. Easier said than done, but agree with many that we need to attack Saxen.

Avoid foul trouble as it relates to Tilly and Tongue(if available) specifically. Can we force some turnovers and disrupt their half court offense? Make free throws, even battle on the boards, win 50/50 balls. Lastly, I thought Knapper played really well at Oregon St, and like seeing him and Carlos on the floor together. I absolutely believe that we can beat the Gaels and students can aid in that immensely.

Go Broncos!!

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I agree with this wholeheartedly.

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Great comments, however Bennett knows that we are thin at the 5 and will have Saxon etc pound it down to get Tilly in foul trouble or have Tilly play passive to avoid fouls.
We will have to shoot lights out in this one to have a chance since our D probably won’t keep us in it…
It all about which team can impose their will - hope it’s the Broncos….

I expect McEldon will have a lot more minutes tonight than normal. Someone meaty will need to try to defend SMC’s big boys, and he’s really the only one on our roster with the height and weight needed. Unfortunately for Cam, he will be needed to backstop both Tilly and McEldon. I hope he is physically OK after the last game.

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Anyone have an injury update on Bryan/Tongue and maybe Bal? I know Bal came back so mostly just hoping his ankle didn’t swell up or anything after the game.

Is McEldon even back? It was shared here that he returned to the UK for a family emergency, and he hasn’t appeared since pretty early in the OOC, if I recall. There was some speculation that he left the team entirely.

In any event, this would be the game where McEldon would be really helpful. Saxen, Murauskas, Wessels, and McKeever are all very big. There’s a huge drop between the first two and the backups, but not as big of a drop as if the Broncos need to rely on Oboye for long stretches at center.

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Good catch, I forgot about McEldon’s extended absence.

Went to the Jalen Williams fireside chat on Monday night and overheard Cam saying he thought he & Tyree would be able to play tonight

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Line for tonight’s game opened at Gaels -3.5 and now is Gaels -4.5