Tip-off:*** Saturday 2/7 @ 3:00 PM Beasley Coliseum, Pullman, WA
TV: ESPN+
Line: Broncos -8, 77.2 win probability
Kenpom: Broncos #36, Cougars #133
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Washington State Cougars
Under Herb Sendek, Santa Clara has established itself as one of the most potent offensive teams on the West Coast. Over the past several seasons, the Broncos’ identity has been built around shot-making, spacing, and three-point volume, which has led to high highs and, at times, volatile results. When the threes fall, Santa Clara is overwhelming. When they don’t, margins can swing quickly.
This season, however, the Broncos have taken a meaningful step forward.
Despite seeing more aggressive and deliberate defensive game plans every night, Santa Clara has mitigated the volatility that once defined them. Opponents have shown their respect by consistently deploying a 2-1-2 zone, designed to disrupt timing, run shooters off the arc, cut off passing lanes, and slow offensive tempo. It’s become a nightly challenge.
That defensive approach has led to slow starts — most recently at Pacific, where the Broncos shot just 32% from the field in the first half. But Santa Clara’s growth showed after the break. With patience and discipline, the Broncos flipped the script, connecting on 60% of their shots in the second half, attacking the paint, and letting their defense fuel the offense. Santa Clara forced 17 turnovers, converting them into 12 points, and once again leaned on defense to stabilize the game.
That defensive foundation continues to be the quiet backbone of this team.
Santa Clara excels in several areas that translate regardless of shooting variance: offensive rebounding, ball security, and two-point efficiency. The Broncos have proven they can win games in a variety of ways, and the Pacific matchup was a perfect example. Allen Graves’ impact went beyond the box score, finishing with 12 points and 8 rebounds as Santa Clara leaned into the post during a physical, gritty battle. Jake Ensminger delivered timely three-pointers and attacked the rim with confidence, posting 13 points and 6 rebounds while providing crucial offensive balance.
Scouting Washington State
Washington State enters the matchup playing its best basketball of the season, going 3–1 over its last four games, despite a road loss at Gill Coliseum to Oregon State. Offensively, the Cougars rank near the top of the conference:
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4th in offensive efficiency
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2nd in effective field goal percentage
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3rd in two-point percentage
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2nd in three-point percentage
However, ball security remains a concern. Washington State turns the ball over at a rate just under 19%, similar to Pacific — a dangerous flaw against a Santa Clara defense built to capitalize.
Defensively, the contrast between these teams is stark. The Broncos sit second in the conference in defensive efficiency, with a significant gap separating them from Washington State. Santa Clara also leads the league in forced turnover rate at 22%, while Washington State ranks last. The Broncos allow the second-lowest three-point percentage in the conference, thanks to their athletic wings and ability to force opponents into contested, low-efficiency shots.
Individually, Washington State brings firepower. Freshman Ace Glass has broken out with an impressive 17 points per game. Rihards Vavers, now healthy, is contributing 11 points per game, while ND Okafor has grown into a reliable interior presence with 10 points and 5 rebounds, supported closely by Eemeli Yalaho. The Cougars move the ball well and play with physicality.
Washington State typically relies on man-to-man defense, but expect them to mix in zone coverage in an effort to slow Santa Clara’s rhythm and limit perimeter looks.
Final Thoughts
Washington State has struggled to beat Top 75 opponents all season, and those challenges are likely to continue. This game will be decided on the defensive end of the floor. As the game wears on, Santa Clara’s pressure will erode Washington State’s passing lanes, leading to turnovers, transition opportunities, and separation late.
Prediction:
Broncos 83 — Cougars 67
