WCC Game 8: Washington State

League Play
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Tip-off: Thursday, 8 pm at the Leavey Center – note late start for TV
TV: CBS Sports Network
Line: Torvik: SCU -6, 71% win probability; ESPN: 63.3% win probability, no line yet.

Washington State:
Wazzu and SCU look relatively similar on the season. Wazzu is 15-5 and also 5-2 in conference. Like the Broncos, the Cougars have a big win over USF at home and a bad loss they’d like to have back. Wazzu’s is much, much worse: an overtime dud at home against UOP. But they aren’t to be taken lightly.

Quick trivia: Who in the WCC has the most Q1/Q2 wins on the season? That would be your own SCU Broncos with 6 (don’t look behind the curtain at the Quad 3 losses, please). Okay, now who is in second place? It’s a tie between Gonzaga and the Washington State Cougars with 4 apiece. Now most of those wins came before preseason conference POY candidate, Cedric Coward, went down with a season-ending injury. But Coward (and excellent sophomore Isaiah Watts) weren’t on hand for their big win against the Dons. So trust that Washington State is plenty good enough to push and even dominate the Broncos if given a chance. And with just a single bad loss, Wazzu may see the Quad 1 opportunity at Leavey as an opportunity to resurrect an outside shot at the at-large.

Starters:

  • 6-11 forward Dane Erikstrup (12.7pts, 4.6rebs, 1.1steals, 3.2asts, 40.5% from 3)
  • 6-6 wing LeJuan Watts (13.8pts, 7.9rebs, 4.0asts, 35% from 3)
  • 6-10 forward Ethan Price (12.1pts, 5.9 rebs, 37.7% from 3, 2.4 TOs)
  • 6-6 guard Tomas Thrasterson (4.8 pts, 2.6 rebs, 41.7% from 3)
  • 6-2 guard Nate Calmese (17.3 pts, 3.4 rebs, 4.7asts, only 26.9% from 3)

Key Bench:

  • 6-9 forward ND Okafor (5.9 pts, 2.6rebs, 1.4blks)
  • 6-2 guard Kase Wynott (1.5pts, 1.7rebs)

Questionable:

  • Isaiah Watts (pre-injury: 12.5pts, 4.8rebs, 1.6stls)

Wazzu is one of at least a dozen teams that have tried to promote a successful head coach at a lower level and import his best players and, hopefully, team chemistry. SCU already faced one such program this season in Saint Louis (née Indiana State). Coach David Riley brought a few of his best guys from Eastern Washington down the highway to the Palouse. Except that with an injury to would-be star Coward, he has had to reinvent this Cougar team mid-season and…been pretty successful!

Wazzu is relatively balanced with roughly the number-80 offense and defense in the country per Torvik. Almost all of the players can shoot the three ball, and they take a decent number (though not as many as SCU). What Washington State does well is find the best shot. Their 2P and 3P percentages are both excellent, indicating a penchant for finding open guys, whether under the hoop or on the perimeter. All but one of their starters averages double-digit scoring, making it difficult for defenses to focus on a single guy.

The Broncos have the same mandate as ever: play defense. Wazzu can score from almost all five spots, both inside and outside. They pull in offensive boards at a good clip, so keeping them off the glass will be crucial. Santa Clara should win this game, especially at home. But as with all of these top-100 WCC teams, there’s plenty of talent with the Cougars to bury a lackadaisical Santa Clara squad resting on their Zag-vanquishing laurels.

Prediction: Broncos put it together, 82-73 Santa Clara. Mahi shakes off some rust and gets 19 to lead all scorers.

8 Likes
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The ESPN line is at SCU -5.5 now.

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With Coward out for the season and maybe Isaiah Watts out (watched a WSU game ~2weeks ago and they said Isaiah was expected to return sometime during WCC play…not sure if he’ll play tonight), the WSU backcourt is very thin. Calmese is an athletic, scoring point guard but beyond him the remaining backcourt talent is limited. Starter Thrasterson would have been an 5-8 minute player off the bench but for the Coward and Isaiah Watts injuries.

But WSU’s frontcourt including LeJuan Watts and backup center Okafor is fairly strong and the Broncos bigs will be tested on D. Erikstrup and Price can score from both the post and beyond the 3pt line. Small forward Watts does a bit of everything, is strong, physical and athletic; I expect Bryan and Mahi will be matched up on him and will have to work hard to keep him off the glass.

With the injuries (there are others in addition to Coward and Watts), the Cougs have very limited depth and aside from Okafor get very little production from their bench. Hopefully the Broncos can take advantage of superior depth and maybe get a Coug starter or two in foul trouble.

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Ugh ensminger is such a liability on offense

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Terrific 1st half!

Great ball movement
Solid shot selection
Protecting the basketball

Like to see us get to the line a little more.

Go Broncos!!

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We scored 54 total points against lmu.

Since then we have scored 44+ points in 3 straight halves.

When this offense is humming it is absolutely beautiful and demoralizes the opponent. Wazzu trying to play uncharacteristically slow on offense to slow us down… and they got two shot clock violations.

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If we shoot 50% from three for the rest of the season, I like our chances.

Great half.

Let’s put another 20 mins together. When was the last time we won a huge game and followed it up with another big win?

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Well this is quite fun.

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Finish them… 7:00 to go up 13. C’mon.

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It’s been a long time since I saw a good opposing team demoralized in the Leavey Center. Well, two weeks since the Dons visited at least.

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Jumped 7 spots on KenPom. NET will be interesting in the morning.

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Great all-around game, very impressive on offense, solid passing and shooting, no hangover from the big win at the Kennel.

Defense looked sharp as well, forcing turnovers and shot-clock violations. Best of all was ending the game with a flourish, a 25-5 run to blow them away. This team is really clicking and it’s exciting to watch.

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good lord what a performance. Can’t say I saw this coming. Have to keep stacking and a find way to get a 1 point win in Corvallis

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Did the coaching staff change something? Or are the PLAYERS playing better?

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Wow great result. We jumped 7 spots in the NET today from 63 to 56. Great momentum.

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A few notable stats and other items:

  • Santa Clara was +10 in rebounds (+7 in O-Boards) and forced 17 turnovers including 12 steals
  • As a result of the above, Santa Clara had 19 more shots overall than Wazzu. A pretty good strategy to beat a team is to get more shots at the hoop. SCU did just that.
  • SCU shot plenty of threes again but worked the ball inside well, with 42 points in the paint, versus just 28 for Wazzu.
  • SCU played the foul game to perfection. @92bronc pointed out the lack of depth and the potential to draw fouls. Santa Clara did a great job taking Erikstrup and Calmese out of the game with foul calls.
  • Watts is a warrior. I wish for him that the 2nd triple-double in Wazzu history wasn’t in such an awful game for the Cougars, but credit where due. He was everywhere even in the last couple of minutes when he all but hopped around the court on one foot.
  • If they can win the next one, SCU is in the driver’s seat for a top-3 finish. Per Torvik, Santa Clara has played the toughest conference schedule so far of all of the contenders and has the easiest remaining schedule. SMC looked dominant last night but still has the hardest conference slate left in front of them. The Zags have the second hardest. So stitch up the no. 3 spot in Corvallis and then the Broncos can shoot for the moon.
  • A couple of personnel notes: Johnny O’Neil has shaken off his early-season slump in a big way. He is now 38% from three overall and an absolutely scorching 60% in conference games. Cam Tongue, for his part, has been doing his usual excellent work on defense and the glass–especially notable last night. He also is shooting 70% from the foul line. As a sophomore, he was a sub-50% foul shooter. And much of our dialogue last season was about Bal’s hero-ball tendencies. Well Adama’s efficiency has gone up across the board even as the spotlight has often been on other Broncos. He’s scoring about the same amount with fewer turnovers and a better percentage from deep. If the NBA scouts were intrigued last year, this year’s Adama Alpha-Bal is quietly improved, and his willingness to seamlessly integrate into the offense is a huge part of it.

And yeah, it’s always good feelings after a big win. But this Bronco team is 8 games into the conference race with only two losses by a combined 6 points. It’s getting close to February and there’s still a universe in which Santa Clara wins the conference (even if vanishingly small). The wheels could come off (or fall back off) tomorrow, but enjoy the vibes while we’ve got 'em.

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Our 3pt percentage continues to improve albeit slightly. We are ranked 96th out of 355 D1 teams at .3537 but we are 25th in nation in 3pt attempts with 28.8 attempts per game. For what it’s worth our opponents are only hitting .314 from the 3pt line so we are definitely converting more as a % then we are giving up.

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Also of note–allegedly there were several NBA scouts in attendance last night:

https://www.instagram.com/santaclarahoops/p/DFN_IN4SP8A/?hl=en

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Scouts may have been just as interested in LeJuan Watts or Calmese as Broncos.

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I haven’t seen anybody post anything involving Tyeree Bryan’s injury, so I am truly hoping it’s nothing serious.

Does anyone have any information on his injury?