Tip-off: Wednesday, 7pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -13.9, 90% win probability; ESPN: SCU -13.5, 88% win probability
Over/Under: 146.5
Torvik: Broncos #35, Redhawks #120
(Broncos #24, Redhawks #125 over Last 10 Games)
Seattle
Holy Trap Game, Batman! Santa Clara has executed an almost unprecedented 8-game winning streak, building from “technically still in contention” to “in the field.” But first, the Broncos need to beat a Jesuit school from the state of Washington…the other one. Don’t even think of Spokane. The most important Santa Clara game in 20 years is Wednesday night against the Seattle University Redhawks (née Chieftans).
Quick trivia: Rank the top four WCC defenses (in conference):
1. Seattle
2. Gonzaga
3. Saint Mary’s
4. Santa Clara
How did you do? Were you successful in identifying the Seattle Redhawks as having the WCC’s top defense? And it’s not just over-performance in the WCC either. Seattle has a top-25 defense in all of CBB. Seattle’s defense is as close to Houston as SMC’s is to Seattle on a possession-adjusted basis.
Then why have you heard so little about Seattle in the WCC? Well, it’s because they have an offense that’s down in the 300s–the worst in the WCC during conference play. Seattle doesn’t give up points, but they have a helluva time scoring.
Santa Clara has already faced a team built similarly: North Texas. But that one went down to the wire. Can SCU dictate pace and prevent Seattle from mucking the game up and keeping themselves in a close one? It will take a lot of mental focus, and a good offensive game plan. This is the most important SCU game in 20+ years. Don’t you dare think about the next one.
Likely Starters and Key Bench
| Height + Position | Player Name | Torvik Adj. Efficiency | PPG | Other Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-3 Point Guard | Maleek Arington | 0.1 | 4.6 | 4.4 asts; 2.2 stls |
| 6-0 Guard | Brayden Maldonado | 2.5 | 14.6 | 2.6 asts; 1.5 stls; 35.9% from 3P; 92% FTs |
| 6-7 Wing | Will Heimbrodt | -0.1 | 11.6 | 5.2 rebs; 2.6 blks |
| 6-8 Forward | Junseok Yeo | 0.8 | 12.0 | 3.8 rebs; 29.2% from 3P |
| 7-0 Center | Austin Maurer | 1.4 | 7.7 | 5.0 rebs |
| 6-3 Guard | John Christofilis | 0.2 | 5.6 | |
| 6-10 Center | Houran Dan | 0.3 | 5.6 | 2.7 rebs |
Seattle’s excellent defense starts with two of SCU’s strengths: forcing TOs and blocking shots. Indeed, the Redhawks do both as well or better than SCU. Heimbrodt, in particular, is a defensive machine, blocking shots and stealing the ball multiple times a game. They play tough, almost suffocating defense. Like the Broncos, they send the other team to the line a fair amount as a result.
On the offensive end, Seattle is largely a three-man show: Maldonado, Heimbrodt, and Yeo have taken a majority of the Redhawks’ shots this season. For a few weeks at the start of the season, it looked like Maldonado was going to push Ike for WCC POY. But in conference, Maldonado has become a shell of his former self, with his efficiency falling off a cliff. In fact, none of Seattle’s players make the top-50 in overall efficiency in WCC play per Torvik. Seattle’s offense has truly gone dark, and they use their defense to grind it out and hold on as best as they can.
For SCU, the key really is just focus. Remember that this Seattle team took the Zags to overtime in Spokane. Seattle will be hunting for steals and poorly-timed shots that are easy to block. Santa Clara needs to work hard for the best shot with crisp passing and cutting. On the defensive end, SCU just needs to contain Maldonado. Yes, his production has taken a dive. But he has plenty of talent to go on a heater.
Seattle’s recipe for the upset is turnovers plus a hot Brayden Maldonado. The Broncos need to take away both. It’s not a game for style points–Seattle does not let teams run away with the game easily. Rather, play fundamentally-sound ball and build the lead over 40 minutes for a safe win.
Prediction: 82-70 Santa Clara. Knapper has a very solid game with 16 points and 5 assists.
to both), but I already have my SMC tickets. It’s probably too tough to fight through 80 miles of rush hour to get to a 7 PM game in the South Bay, but I could get inspiration tomorrow.