Tip-off: Saturday, 7:30 pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN (leave your dialpad at home, no numbers or symbols for this one!)
Line: Torvik: Broncos +0.6, 48% win probability; ESPN: SCU +4.5, 21.9% win probability
Over/Under: 158.5
Torvik: Broncos #35, Zags #16
(Broncos #27, Zags #21 over Last 10 Games)
First Santa Clara:
They did it, Bronco fans. And by “it,” I don’t mean locked in a Tournament bid or even come close to accomplishing any ultimate goals for this season. But at the conclusion of the Loyola game, the patient stopped breathing. To revive these Broncos, they would need to do something that Santa Clara never does. Something like win 14 of 15, losing only in Spokane and controlling the home game against SMC from wire-to-wire. Santa Clara’s hopes could theoretically be salvaged, but we knew better. We have seen this film before. A Bronco team that drops a game to Loyola-Chicago would falter again, at LMU…or USD…or Wazzu…or all of the above. They would lose focus. They would flame out.
The Broncos have not. They rose to the occasion. Every time. Along the way, they debuted an incredible frosh class: a star in Allen Graves, an occasional flamethrower in Sash Gavalyugov, a tenacious defender and clutch offensive option in KJ Cochran. Santa Clara cemented the solid performances of Hammond, Mahi, and Ensminger. They reenergized a dormant Knapper and found ways to maximize Oboye’s unique talents.
Without any of that, this game would have high emotional stakes but little else. But as it is, here’s a short list of what a win in this game means:
- Santa Clara leaps to solidly in the field in the NCAA Tournament;
- Santa Clara establishes a full one-game lead in the race for first place in the WCC;
- Sendek all but guarantees the WCC Coach of the Year award, finally achieving that honor in his fourth conference;
- With even just a decent performance, Allen Graves leaps out in front for WCC Frosh and Newcomer of the Year and likely seals the 6th Man of the Year award;
- The Zags’ final, forseeable game in Leavey ends with a loss.
Here’s a preview of who stands in the way, not that they need much intro:
Gonzaga:
The Bulldogs are concluding the last year of a couple eras, most significantly their decades in the WCC. It’s also the final year of the “Graham Ike era,” which has seen Gonzaga remain an elite team but not quite the dominant team they were from 2017-2022. That said, this “not-dominant” Gonzaga team still only has two losses. But they can be overwhelmed (see Michigan) or befuddled (see OT against Seattle, pushed by USF, shocked by Portland). In other words, Santa Clara can win this game…and maybe even should win this game. 
Gonzaga has been without excellent forward Braden Huff for about 4 weeks. Huff is all but certain to be unavailable for the game on Saturday and looks increasingly likely to miss the rest of the season. His loss is palpable but nowhere near life-threatening for these Zags: their offense has taken a half-step back and their defense a quarter-step forward. To say that Gonzaga is a lesser team without Huff is true but also splitting a very fine hair. Gonzaga is still elite without Huff. Just watch the first 30 minutes of their Tuesday game against Wazzu which plays like a snuff film.
Likely Starters and Key Bench
| Height + Position | Player Name | Tovik Adj. Efficiency | PPG | Other Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-0 Point Guard | Braeden Smith | 1.8 | 5.8 | 4.2 asts; 1.2 stls; 31.7% from 3P |
| 6-3 Guard | Adam Miller | 1.1 | 7.2 | 31.1% from 3P |
| 6-5 Wing | Emmanuel Innocenti | 1.3 | 5.0 | 3.1 rebs; 30.4% from 3P |
| 6-7 Wing/Forward | Jalen Warley | 2.0 | 7.3 | 4.9 rebs; 1.6 stls |
| 6-9 Center | Graham Ike | 5.5 | 19.7 | 8.5 rebs; 2.6 asts; 35.6% from 3P |
| 6-3 Point Guard | Mario Saint-Supery | 2.4 | 8.6 | 3.8 asts; 1.5 stls |
| 6-7 Forward | Davis Fogle | 1.9 | 8.0 | 2.5 rebs |
| 6-7 Wing/Forward | Tyon Grant-Foster | 1.9 | 11.0 | 5.0 rebs; 28.9% 3P |
If you’re looking for the small gaps in the Zags armor, start here: outside shooting, reliance on Ike, and free throws. The Zags have been merely an okay 3P shooting team for the past two seasons by focusing on big wings who slash and defend first and shoot second. Steele Venters was hoped to be the catch-and-shoot guy to bolster perimeter shooting, but his other deficiencies have largely relegated him to spot minutes and the bench in recent games. Now the Zags still shoot the three slightly better than SCU–so it’s not like there’s a real advantage there–but this Gonzaga team can and does occasionally go cold, forcing them to win on the interior.
Which they can. Because of Ike. Ike has been the preseason pick for WCC POY for three straight seasons, but this looks like finally his moment. He is scoring almost 20 per game on amazing efficiency. He hits on roughly 70% of his shots inside the arc. If Ike gets the ball, it will go in. But in recent games, Ike has been forced to play 30+ minutes. He has performed extremely well with that load, but it’s still a lot of minutes for a center–especially one who occasionally runs into foul trouble. Ike has been more disciplined this year, but there’s still something to be said in running at him. Get him with fouls or with exhaustion, but make Ike the Defender work to limit Ike the Offensive Juggernaut.
Finally, this is a poor foul shooting team. Not just not elite as with Gonzaga’s shooting from outside. Legitimately quite bad–only 69.8% in conference play, good for second-to-last in the WCC and just 277th in the country. Not that this should be an open invitation for SCU to foul at will. But if you have to choose between giving a Zag a free bucket or a trip to the line, put that Bulldog on the charity stripe (exception for Saint-Supery).
For Santa Clara, the keys are:
- Control Ike: Many have tried, few have succeeded. But Ike is the exception to the rule that one player can’t beat a team by himself. Ike can, as demonstrated in SCU’s loss in Spokane. This Zags team doesn’t have the supporting cast after Ike to dominate a team like SCU. If Ike sits, it’s advantage Santa Clara.
- Win the TO margin: SCU did a great job turning the Zags over in the first half in Spokane, getting out to an 8-point advantage. They then turned the ball over themselves on five straight possessions, letting the Zags get way ahead and start cruise control. SCU is going to need the possession advantage here and can’t give the ball away for free.
- Don’t give the role player a career night: This is the corollary to controlling Ike. Last year in Leavey, SCU did just that only to allow Diagne, a player barely seen on the floor for Gonzaga before or since, put in a career performance. The players on Gonzaga are all talented enough to play for a major team, meaning they can go off if given an opportunity no matter what their stats have been. Santa Clara can’t allow a role player to be a star for a game and needs to dial in with defensive intensity at every position.
- Let Leavey help: You may recall in 2023, Santa Clara jumped out to a 14-point lead over the Zags in Leavey, helped in no small part by a raucous crowd. We can all lament the lack of a sold-out atmosphere against Portland, but when Leavey is sold out, it can really rock in a way that elevates the team.
Prediction: 83-80 Santa Clara. The Broncos should play with confidence and the expectation that they will win. Good things will come. Knapper recovers his Gonzaga mojo and gets 18 points, including 6-6 from the line.
