Tip-off: Saturday, 6 pm at McCarthy Center (The Kennel)
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: GU -13.4, 13%win probability; ESPN: 7.8% win probability, GU -15.5.
Gonzaga:
You know Gonzaga. That unicorn of mid-major college basketball teams that reached the mountaintop and sustained it? The program with one of the longest NCAA Tournament streaks in the country (behind only Kansas and Michigan State) with 9 straight trips to the Sweet 16? The program that has crafted the WCC in its image over the last decade only to leave it for the…ummm…“Pac-12?” That Gonzaga.
Well that Gonzaga is still that Gonzaga, mostly. It’s not the 2017 or 2021 vintages. There are chinks in the armor described below. Those chinks were just exposed in an overtime loss in Corvallis against the Beavers. But even a more mortal Mark Few squad is still good enough to beat a good Broncos team like a drum if they don’t show up. Perhaps the Broncos can take advantage of a little exhaustion in the PNW. But don’t count on it. As put by Omar Little channeling Emerson, Oliver Wendell Holmes, and Machiavelli, “When you come at the king, you best not miss.”
Starters:
- 6-2 guard Nolan Hickman (10.0pts, 2.9rebs, 2.0asts, 44% from 3)
- 6-0 guard Ryan Nembhard (11.4pts, 3.2rebs, 9.4asts, 37.7% from 3)
- 6-5 wing Khalif Battle (13.4pts, 3.8 rebs, 37.1% from 3)
- 6-9 center Graham Ike (16.6pts, 7.4rebs, 43.8% from 3)
- 6-10 forward Ben Gregg (10.2pts, 5.6 rebs)
Key Bench:
- 6-6 guard Dusty Stromer (6.1 pts, 3.4rebs, 35.8% from 3)
- 6-7 wing Michael Ajayi (6.2pts, 5rebs, only 17.9% from 3)
- 6-10 forward Braden Huff (11.4pts, 3.8rebs)
The Zags are solid, per usual. They are ranked roughly between 10 and 15 in the country in Torvik, KenPom, and the NET. That’s about where last year’s Bulldogs ended the season, including a Broncos victory. That was a lesser Santa Clara team. So the Broncos can win this game. But they’ll have to be just about perfect. San Diego and Pepperdine both played the Zags closer than expected, then OSU actually brought them low.
The chink in Gonzaga’s armor is defense. Over their last ten, they have less than a top-100 defense. Here’s a real shocker: Torvik says that SCU’s defense has been a hair better than Gonzaga’s over those ten games. USD and the Waves both scored 80 against them. The Zags just scored more. Santa Clara is built somewhat similarly, so expect a track meet.
The thing that we have seen time and again with SCU teams under Sendek, though, is that the Zags rarely get beat by their own game. They are the kings of offense-first, ball screen-heavy, get-out-in-transition high-tempo offense that can put up points like SCU’s second half against USF last weekend. Try to play the game that the Zags want, and you might get hot and lose by 15 or have a cold night and lose by 40. You have to throw something different at them and defend with your life. Last year in the win at SCU, Coach Garson called a lot more offensive sets than we were used to seeing. And the Broncos focused a lot on stopping GU’s ball movement, leaving them with a measly 8 assists, and forced Anton Watson to beat SCU with iso-possessions (which he almost did).
Draw fouls on Ike and front Ben Gregg in the post to keep him from getting the ball close to the rim. The Broncos absolutely have to fight over the screens because though none of the guards are quite as shifty as Malik Thomas, they’ll hoist a three if you give them the space.
String two halves together like the second half against USF–or even two halves that are 80% that good–and Santa Clara can compete with the Zags. This is not 2021’s why-even-show-up Zags team. They have vulnerabilities, and Santa Clara is a better team than last year (see, e.g. SCU’s 18 TOs in the win at Leavey).
The X-factor is that neither team expected to be fighting for a 1-1 week here. Who wants it more?
But see the above about shooting at kings…
Prediction: Broncos fight but fall, 82-77 Gonzaga. Mahi shows his toughness with 21 points.
