Tip-off: Tuesday, 8 pm at Leavey Center
TV: CBS Sports Network
Line: Torvik: GU -1.6, 44% win probability; ESPN: 26.2% win probability, no line yet.
Gonzaga:
Here come the Zags on their annual Leavey Center visit. As often happens, the conference crown is already locked up, a season sweep is on the line versus Santa Clara, and a team is desperate not to end up in 4th or 5th place.
Oh what’s that you say?
That the WCC crown is already spoken for, and it’s not being polished in Spokane? That it’s Santa Clara who can potentially complete the sweep? That Gonzaga also needs a win to avoid potentially dropping to 4th or 5th? Well this is something.
Starters:
- 6-2 guard Nolan Hickman (11.2pts, 2.6rebs, 2.2asts, 45% from 3)
- 6-0 guard Ryan Nembhard (11pts, 3.0rebs, 9.7asts, 40.5% from 3)
- 6-5 wing Khalif Battle (12.6pts, 3.4rebs, 32.3% from 3)
- 6-9 center Graham Ike (16.8pts, 7.5rebs, 35.7% from 3)
- 6-10 forward Ben Gregg (9.4pts, 5.3rebs)
Key Bench:
- 6-6 guard Dusty Stromer (5pts, 2.5rebs, 35% from 3)
- 6-7 wing Michael Ajayi (7.1pts, 5.6rebs, only 17.9% from 3)
- 6-10 forward Braden Huff (11.2pts, 3.4rebs)
The Zags are 21-8 and staring at the very real possibility of ending up with double-digit losses for the first time since 2011. At the same time, the death of Gonzaga has been greatly exaggerated. They continue to be an analytical darling–11th on KenPom, 14th on Torvik. None of their losses are outside the first two quadrants, and their offense remains absolutely scorching when they get going.
Last time out, the Broncos were able to take advantage of a very so-so Gonzaga defense that ranked outside of the top-100 over the previous 10 games. Well, the Bulldogs were scared into defending. Their defense over the previous 10 games from today has risen to top-40 level. They have only given up more than 1 point per possession twice since playing SCU: against both USF and SMC in the Kennel. Lesser squads like Pepperdine were held to less than 60 points, while the Zags sprinted out to more than 100 on the game.
So what do the Broncos do? Well, the best answer is probably, “Something a little bit different.”
Santa Clara shot lights out from three in Spokane, and that seemed like SCU’s best three point performance until they decided to go to back to NE Washington and set a conference record. That said, I would not expect to win just from three this time. You really think Gonzaga hasn’t all but gotten tattoos saying, “Don’t let the Broncos shoot threes?” But what might work is, in addition to a diet of some good, open looks, take advantage of defenders overcommitting on the perimeter. Carlos should be able to get another couple of his patented baseline dunks or reverse layups off of Zags defenders biting too hard on a pump fake. Or draw a foul, Harden-style, if you can. But only fire the truly good looks and plan to take advantage of the Zags’ over-eager perimeter defense to get points closer to the hoop.
Then limit Ike. He is Gonzaga’s most efficient offensive weapon but prone to fouls of both the common and technical variety. Santa Clara does not draw fouls well, and hasn’t really tried to pile up fouls except maybe the first half against Saxen at SCU. Perhaps try something different? And on the other end, you have to keep him from getting the ball close to the hoop. Harass him on crab dribbles. The best way to handle Ike is to be a pest and take him out of rhythm.
The Broncos haven’t been running many offensive sets this season. That has generally worked out well, but this would be the game to run a little in the half-court. Half-court sets were huge for SCU the last time these squads played in Leavey. Run some again, especially out of timeouts with limited clock.
Lastly, the Broncos need to be ready for a couple things that almost sank them down the stretch last time: Hickman’s three-point shooting and the full-court pressure. The Zags aren’t great from beyond the arc, but Hickman is very good and will convert most of the wide-open ones that he gets. Run him off the line, and don’t go under any screens. And it would be malpractice not to have prepared for that full-court trapping pressure. Beat it and get to the hoop to make the Zags regret it.
Last time out, both teams were fighting to not have an 0-2 week. SCU got the better of that contest. This time, both teams want that 2nd seed. The winner of this game most likely gets the bye all the way to the semis (yes, yes, I know USF will have something to say about that).
Santa Clara needs to want it more. A lot more.
Prediction: Broncos show big fight but fall, 91-89 Gonzaga. Stewart shines with 24 points and 3 steals.
