Tip-off: Sunday, 4pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -20.1, 93% win probability; ESPN: Broncos -14.5, 89.9% win probability
Over/Under: 161.5 total points
Torvik: Broncos #41, Toreros #198
(Broncos #69, Toreros #173 over Last 10 Games)
San Diego
Yes, Steve Lavin is still the coach at USD. While it’s still just his 4th season, Lavin’s teams haven’t ended in the top-200 at Torvik in any of his previous three years, being characterized by deep rotations, extensive use of walk-ons, and preparation of prime talent for (not from) the transfer portal. It’s not clear why Lavin wanted out of broadcasting to return to coaching via the Slim Gym. But it’s clear that he hasn’t been lighting the greater San Diego area on fire with Torero Fever.
That said, USD is off of a very solid showing against Gonzaga and a competitive game on the Hilltop against USF. They’ve played two good games and come up short. Third time’s the charm? The Broncos better hope not.
Likely Starters and Main Bench:
| Height + Position | Player Name | Torvik Adj. Efficiency | PPG | Other Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-0 Point Guard | Ty-Laur Johnson | 2.2 | 14.2 | 3.4 asts; 2.2 stls; 2.5 TOs |
| 6-0 Guard | Juanse Gorosito | 2.2 | 11.5 | 1.3 stls; 40% from 3P |
| 6-3 Guard | Adrian McIntyre | 2.4 | 9.5 | 1.5 stls; 3.7 rebs |
| 6-5 Wing | Toneari Lane | 1.8 | 10.3 | 37.9% from 3P; 93.8% FTs |
| 6-7 Forward | Vuk Boskovic | 0.1 | 6.1 | 3.9 rebs; |
| 6-6 Wing | D’Arrae Goodwin | 0.3 | 4.7 | |
| 6-10 Center | Alejandro Aviles | 0.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 rebs; 55.6% FTs |
| 6-5 Wing | Dominique Ford | 0.5 | 5.1 | 39.2% overall shooting |
This San Diego team isn’t good, per se. But they have fight. And they excel in two areas that can be real issues for Santa Clara: stealing the ball and making their free throws.
San Diego generally plays small, only playing with a true center about 1/3 of the time. As a result, they are able to rotate and react quickly, forcing steals. They play fast (roughly top-100 in pace), take lots of threes (top-60ish), and move the ball to the open man well (also roughly top 60-ish). When the Toreros get fouled, they convert at a 77% clip overall with their three main guards each 82%+ from the charity stripe.
That lack of size keeps them off the boards, though. Last year’s USD squad wasn’t a great rebounding team, but they were serviceable because of Steven Jamerson (now of UCLA–one of Lavin’s many “up-transfers”). This year, they’re just abysmal on the glass on both ends, ranking in the bottom 20% for both offensive and defensive rebounds. That’s where SCU holds a clear advantage.
And for as great of a free throw shooting team as USD is, they seldomly get to the line. We will see if our foul-happy Broncos can change that. The Toreros’ interior defense is rather poor, and Santa Clara should have plenty of good looks close to the hoop.
Graves and Ensminger should be able to feast on the boards, hopefully with both getting a handful of critical put-back opportunities. If Mahi can get in close to the hoop, he should have plenty of success as well. Don’t settle for mediocre outside shots in this game: USD will give up plenty close to the rim.
Santa Clara needs to be careful with the ball and with fouling. While SCU isn’t horrible with ball security, they aren’t great either. Like McNeese, USD plays for steals as a focal point of the defense. And if the Broncos can’t keep themselves from stupid fouls, USD is about the worst team in the conference to give freebies at the line.
Ultimately, this game freaks me out a bit. USD could come in flat after two close-ish losses; or they could come in determined to get one now that they’ve pushed two better teams for most of the game. If the latter, the Broncos need to be prepared to give an equal or greater reaction.
Prediction: 76-71 Santa Clara with Darlan having another solid (and critical) game with 17 points and 8 boards. I’m feeling the trap here but still hoping and expecting Santa Clara to come away with a win.
…..channeling Joey Kampf…..old timers will remember.