Tip-off: Saturday, 4pm in Leavey TV: ESPN+ Line: Torvik: Broncos -23.8, 89% win probability; ESPN: 96.6% win probability, no line yet.
San Diego:
The Toreros are 4-21 (3-21 vs. D1) and 1-11 in conference and most recently lost their rematch with the LMU Lions. They’ve only picked up a single win since they pushed the Broncos to the close (though it wasn’t quite as narrow as the 1-point win suggested since the Broncos had a 4 pt lead before a meaningless, buzzer beater 3P). They still have no quality wins and have only beaten lowly Pacific in a series split. At best they can claim to have been close against SCU and Wazzu and maybe closer than expected at GU.
USD doesn’t really have a regular starting bunch and has had a wild 17 different players play meaningful time (appearing in 5+ games). We’ll cover just a handful of the main ones here with the first five being the starters in the Toreros’ last game:
Regular Players:
6-10 center Steven Jamerson (8.3pts, 7.6rebs, 0.7 blocks)
6-11 forward Kean Webb (3.4pts, 2.9asts)
6-2 guard Deven Dahlke (4.6 pts, 35.6% from 3)
6-5 guard Tony Duckett (9.8pts, 38.6% from 3)
6-0 guard Dominic Muncey (0.6pts, 0.8rebs)
6-8 forward Benji Pierre (5.3 pts, 3rebs, 25.6% from 3)
6-10 forward Santiago Trouet (9.3pts, 7.8 rebs, 22.4% from 3)
6-11 forward Kean Webb (3.4pts, 2.9asts)
6-5 guard Kody Clouet (7.1 pts, 23.3%)
Questionable:
6-1 guard Kjay Bradley (14.5pts, 3.5asts, 29.7% from 3) – not appeared since 1/18
The Toreros are a bad team and just took a loss at Pacific, their competition for worst in the conference. Lavin’s desperate substitutions almost make one believe that he wants to be fired and sail off into the Mission Beach sunset–did you know he once was the successor to John Wooden’s Bruins? They rank 305th in the country on offense, 222 on defense. But they can have occasional sparks. They got everything they wanted at the rim last time out against SCU, so the interior defense will have to be much better tomorrow. The second half defense against Portland would be nice to see again.
A WCC storyline that I missed is that junior KJ Bradley, Jr. hasn’t played since January 18. He’s USD’s only double-digit scorer and got 23 points against SCU the last time out. Without him, USD is not just a bad team but a spectacularly bad team.
The Broncos are the superior team running away and should be able to put a Pacific/Portland/Wazzu-like stat line up if they feel motivated to defend. The Broncos did not feel such a need in the Slim Gym last month. If the Broncos want to have a chance against SMC, they need to model some absolutely tenacious defense and rebounding inside against the lowly Toreros.
Prediction: 93-65 Santa Clara. Bal starts his belated NBA campaign with 24 points and 7 rebounds.
Unfortunately for Lavin, his best players from last year all bolted for greener pastures. I was at the game at USD last year, they were solid competition. But how can a program be successful with such high turnover?
Spot on Buckets, USD lost four of five starters plus their back up center to the transfer portal. And three of those in particular were pretty darn good and rec’d all-WCC recognition. Point guard Wayne McKinney transferred to and is starting for San Diego St., talented frosh Kevin Patton Jr. transferred to USC and Deuce Turner who averaged 17+pts a game in WCC play transferred to UCSB.
The only way to counteract that level of loss is to bring in a bunch of great transfers yourself but the only incoming transfer who has contributed significantly is Kjay Bradley; Clouet was another transfer in but his shooting has stunk as evidence by his 23.3% from 3’s.
I thought Lavin did a pretty good job at UCLA replacing the legendary Coach Wooden. But apparently he was not liked within the UCLA administration. I believe he was terminated after just 1 losing season. They made it to the Big Dance every year of his tenure except that final year.
One rotation player I’d add, not on Patty’s list is 5-11 point guard Joey Chammaa, avg. 6.9pts/game but over 10 in conference.
Expanding on Patty’s point about Lavin’s lineups and use of players for the last 2 seasons…they currently have a huge roster of 21 players; at least 8 are walkons given the 13 player scholarship limit. And both seasons he has regularly played including starting several walkons. Out of their playing rotation, Chammaa, Muncey and Duckett are all walk-ons plus Gonzaga transfer forward Colby Brooks gets a token 6 minutes a game.
To highlight the oddity, the 6-0 walk-on guard Muncey has started 6 conf game and 20 games total over the past 2 seasons. In 13minutes a game in WCC play he is averaging 0.6 pts/game 0.3 assists. In last night’s loss to Pacific, his stat line in 30 minutes of play was: 0pts, on 0 shot attempts and no assists, 1 rebound and 1 assist. Maybe he hustles and plays hard and OK defense but he’s not a lock down defender. Just don’t know how you can play a guy like that who is so unproductive and doesn’t truly impact the game in any meaningful manner. My only guess is the young man is a solid leader, hustles in practice and does everything the coaches expect of him. I understand trying to set a tone and culture and rewarding a kid like that but starting and playing him 30mins given the limited productivity is absurd.
I’ve said the same to 92, and want to convey my thanks to you as well. I know that these game summaries take time. You both do a tremendous job and much appreciated!
92 is the master. I’m just trying to follow in his footsteps here as best as I can. I can read Torvik with the best of them, but ask me to identify a 2-1-2 zone defense in real time and you’ll expose my dearth of real hoop knowledge. It’s great to have a respectful community here with such great contributions.
As a more frequent lurker on other WCC forums than I care to admit, I really think that we’ve got the best group here at WakeUpSwig. One of the sadder parts of last night was realizing that Pilot Nation, which used to be one of my favorite opponent forums, doesn’t have quite the traffic it used to. I hope they can get that program and fandom back to where it should be.
No fan message board for USD to lurk on during this game. Ah well.
The 14th different starting lineup for USD. This one includes two new walkons who I don’t believe have started this year: Beniwal and Colby Brooks (Gonzaga transfer). Crazy…
No Tilly helped USD stay in the game last time. I hope that they can lock down the interior without him. At least Cam’s conditioned to stay in for long stretches. I can’t see Tongue losing steam from exhaustion but needs to stay out of foul trouble.
The only reasonable explanation I can offer for Lavin’s bizarre substitutions and lineups is that after losing so many starters last season, he’s planning to not give any one player enough time to build stats that would make them an attractive candidate for a larger school. If not that, then I truly think he just wants to get fired.
Would like to see tighter defense, but not horrible under the circumstances. Good to see Bukky some minutes. He’s raw, but not as raw or uncoordinated as so many skinny Bronco centers before him.
The announcers keep saying Ensminger is sick and man does he look it. If he feels as bad as he looks, then it’s pretty heroic that he’s spelling the front court as well as he can right now.
Finding some rhythm now. Hopefully they keep it up.
It continues to kill me how our athletic department cannot get legitimate sponsorships in the valley. Santa Clara is home to Oracle, Nvidia, AMD etc and yet we are sponsored by Erik’s Deli Cafe and The Hut. It’s such a waste of potential massive influx of sponsorship or NIL. Someone needs to address and get us to the next level and get us premium sponsorships.