Tip-off: Wednesday, 7pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Predictions: Torvik: Broncos -18.6, 92% win probability; ESPN: 92.2% win probability
Torvik: Broncos #88, Panthers #249
Milwaukee Panthers
The Panthers are finishing their road trip through West Coast “SC’s,” having just been shellacked by the #21 USC Trojans 95-63. There aren’t too many takeaways from the first game that seem reliable insofar as projecting what the Panthers’ game plan will be come Wednesday. But here are a couple notes.
First, despite being out-rebounded overall, Milwaukee pulled down 12 offensive rebounds against the Trojans. Now I’m going to assume that a decent amount of this was due to shooting just 26% from three, leading to lots of long rebounds that tend to be easier to scoop up by the offense. Nevertheless, having been pushed on the glass by Towson, the Broncos would do well to avoid giving up second chance opportunities.
Second, the Panthers still seem to be figuring out their lineups, much like SCU and many other teams with tons of new personnel. Ten players put in double-digit minutes with only one player getting more than 30 minutes of playing time. So Milwaukee may enter Leavey with different lineups and a different gameplan than what they showed in Los Angeles.
Lastly–and I’ll use this as an opportunity to direct folks to Torvik’s awesome new Shot Chart feature–Milwaukee seems to like (and miss) a pretty inefficient shot diet. The Shot Chart shows a heavy dose of mid-range shots and deep threes, with relatively fewer attempts at the rim or the corner three. On the other end, they gave up a lot of looks at the rim, and USC was happy to take what was given. Now USC has a pretty good front court, held down in part by the Ratliff twins who are 6-11 and 7-0. So Milwaukee’s reliance on the mid-range on offense and failure to stop rim attempts on defense can be explained away by playing a good team with an excellent front court. Nevertheless, the Broncos should try to replicate USC’s success of stopping Milwaukee and the rim and converting inside on the other end.
Doing a full personnel breakdown is pretty time consuming and probably not especially useful this early. If you want to see who Milwaukee is bringing, check out the Box Score from the USC game and the Torvik Team Page for efficiency metrics (albeit with a single game sample).
For SCU, there were plenty of bright spots on Monday night but several concerns.
(1) The front court needs to have better hands and court awareness. Tadjo settled in during the second half but still missed multiple bunnies. Francis had a poor game all around. Gueye looks as lost on the court as I’ve seen a Bronco big in some time. The Broncos were clearly getting beaten on rebounds inside which was a change after a season of Graves’s preternatural gifts of pulling down the ball. I think Gueye is likely a longer-term project, but Tadjo needs to continue his second-half trajectory, and Francis just needs to have a better game. It’s nice to have multiple true centers, but ultimately they need to be playable against solid front court competition, and it’s not clear to me that the Broncos have that yet.
(2) The two sides of Sash Gavalyugov are that he can be on a total heater, but his confidence bleeds very quickly into over-confidence. He was loving the one-arm cross-court pass against Towson. Towson never made him pay, but other teams will. He took at least two heat check three-pointers early in the shot clock that were just not good looks at all. Sash still needs a little maturity to maximize his strengths and minimize his considerable bad habits.
(3) Maybe it’s just me, but the defensive intensity seemed a little less urgent on Monday. The stats don’t totally bear this out, so maybe I’m just reading vibes. But I don’t know that a starting lineup of Longcor, Gavalyugov, and Zugic is really helping much on the defensive end. Subbing Castillo in for any of the three doesn’t particularly help. And with a front court that has yet to shine, the guards need to show aggression in helping pull down rebounds and stopping guys before they get into the paint. Cochran, Mahi, and Darlan all bring a little more on the defensive end, and I would like to see at least one of those three make the starting lineup (likely Mahi, but I’m open to Darlan or Cochran once healed). In the prior few seasons, Santa Clara got away with having a smaller and more athletic front court by having over-sized guards (Mahi, Bal, Bryan, Podz, Jalen). This year’s backcourt is decidedly smaller and heavily-indexed on quickness and three point shooting. Maybe the backcourt can really just shoot the rock so well that it doesn’t matter, but last night gave me some concerns about whether the Broncos will be able to stop the ball.
Anyway, I would like to see good ball movement and penetration and better hands from Tadjo and Chukwudebelu to convert some great lobs and entry passes. This is meant to be a tune-up game before next week brings a series of five pretty big tests. I expect Santa Clara to get the better of the Panthers, but I still have some outstanding concerns to be addressed before I believe that SCU should win the conference.
91-70 Santa Clara. Tadjo gets a double-double with 12 points and 10 boards.