Before the preview, a request for the handful of students that I’m sure wander on here as I did as a student: Please show up to this game. This is your historic bitter rival, and the team that SCU needs to be in front of in the final standings. Be there to help the Broncos make it happen.
Tip-off: Saturday, 4pm, Leavey Center.
TV: ESPN+ – This is a travesty as this game should be on real TV somewhere
Line: Torvik: SCU -4, 65% win probability; ESPN: 54.3% win probability, no line yet.
San Francisco:
The Dons are 14-4 and 4-1 in the WCC. They took a hard fought loss in a foul-heavy game at Wazzu. Then they beat Portland last night 81-72 at War Memorial in a game that was never exactly close but always closer than the Dons would have wanted.
Starters:
- 6-5 guard Malik Thomas (20.4pts, 3.8rebs, 2.1steals, 2.4asts, 39% from 3)
- 6-2 point guard Marcus Williams (14.1pts, 4.2 assists, 44.3% from 3)
- 6-6 wing Tyrone Riley IV (10.2pts, 5.6 rebounds, 38% from 3)
- 7-0 center Carlton Linguard (7.6 pts, 4.2 rebs, 1 block, a 55% FT shooter and 27% from three)
- 6-9 forward Junje Wang (6.5 pts, 2.6 rebs, 33% from 3)
- 6th man: 5-11 guard Ryan Beasley (5.8 pts, 2 assists, 32% from 3) – Has not returned from injury and may be unavailable
Starting forward Ndewedo Newbury is out for the season, so USF’s front court continues to be an issue for them, though Wang had a good game against a small Portland squad. The thing is that their backcourt is elite and vying for the best in the WCC thanks to WCC POY-front runner, Malik Thomas. You know Malik Thomas for his 34 point performance against the Broncos on the Hilltop–perhaps you remember his automatic mid-range jumpers, his acrobatic three pointers, or his perfect 12-12 night from the free throw line (including a crucial 3-3 to help force overtime). Well, he’s still all that and even went 7-7 from the foul stripe last night–maybe he can offer lessons?
USF’s defense has taken a significant hit since Newbury left, both in the analytics and in the results. USF hadn’t given up 80 points all of last season; they then gave up 80 in 3 straight games. But their defense remains roughly top-100 to go with a top-75 offense. That’s more than enough to put away a lackadaisical Broncos team that doesn’t show up absolutely hell bent on revenge.
This is a game where the keys are actually pretty simple. The Broncos need to stop USF’s elite guards from getting everything they want, fight over screens, and force USF to defend the paint to open up the three-point game (rather than the other way around). SCU has a significant size and rebounding advantage that showed itself on the Hilltop. But USF’s guards are good enough to neutralize any other deficits, and SCU should not expect to win a shootout with Malik Thomas and Marcus Williams.
Look for Tilly to get active early and for the Broncos to smother Thomas with traps and double-teams. Tilly, Tongue, and O’Neil are all better than USF’s primary front-court players who are more comfortable from the perimeter than down low. But if the Broncos let Thomas and Williams go off again, they’ll be down big and fast.
Oh, and make your free throws. You know Malik Thomas will.
Prediction: Broncos know what the stakes are and play as passionately as ever, 77-72 Santa Clara. Tilly has a double-double with 17 and 11.