Imagine if this team was playing at its full potential? Kinda scary considering we have pulled some big wins at 50% quality of play.
We’ve seen glimpses and they’re absolutely unstoppable. I’d love those glimpses to become a routine during conf play.
After 18 months of practicing and playing “together” this team isn’t together. The “process” the coaches stick with seems to lack both the offense and defensive specifics the players need to make good in game decisions. Adjustments don’t happen.
It’s why Randy Bennett and St. Mary’s kick our butt because his players, while not better athletes, are taught and know how to create mismatches they exploit. They actually can execute a game plan, we can’t.
We’re so enamored with two NBA first rounders, that some of our players come here to audition for scouts, Jack up threes and not do what it takes to win. HS used to play guys who performed on court - not now. The same guys start when their numbers are bad.
That said, we do have potential but I don’t think our coaches can unlock it. Stick with the “process” - so far in eight years, no NCAA’s, Third/fourth in the WCC, No WCC tourney finals, two NIT first round losses, and now a season on the “brink” with our most experienced roster. 
9 WCC teams playing today and some good matchups and/or Power Conf opponents.
By Jon Wilner | jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group
UPDATED: December 11, 2024 at 10:29 AM PST
The Best of the West offers fans a candid assessment of the top teams in the western third of the country — a collection that includes the Mountain West and the former Pac-12 schools now scattered across the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and West Coast Conference.
The rankings will be published on the Hotline weekly throughout the regular season.
(NET rankings through Monday)
Last week: 1
Results: lost to Kentucky 90-89 (OT)
NET ranking: 3
Next up: vs. Connecticut (Saturday)
Comment: Tough to demote the Zags for an overtime loss to Big Blue, even though they squandered a huge halftime lead. But it’s doubly difficult when none of the contenders for the top spot recorded a high-level victory to justify an upward move.
Last week: 3
Results: Did not play
NET ranking: 34
Next up: vs. Florida (Saturday)
Comment: Any other year, we would examine the Sun Devils’ resume and, without hesitation, proclaim ASU a basketball school.
Last week: 4
Results: beat Fresno State 84-62 and San Diego 74-57
NET ranking: 41
Next up: vs. Cal Baptist (Wednesday)
Comment: Might as well circle the Aztecs’ conference home opener in two weeks against Utah State. It could be a preview of the Mountain West championship game.
Last week: 9
Results: beat Oregon 73-71
NET ranking: 14
Next up: vs. Arizona in Phoenix (Saturday)
Comment: Kudos to Arizona and UCLA officials for finding a way to continue the best basketball rivalry in the West despite the breakup of the Pac-12. The sport is better for it.
Last week: 2
Results: beat USC 68-60, lost to UCLA 73-71
NET ranking: 15
Next up: vs. Stephen F Austin (Sunday)
Comment: It had to end sometime. After 22 consecutive wins by Oregon’s football and men’s basketball teams during the 2024-25 competition season, the Ducks finally lost. On the court, not the field.
Last week: 5
Results: beat Utah 72-63
NET ranking: 33
Next up: vs. Boise State (Saturday)
Comment: Easy to see the endgame: SMC will need both Utah and USC to rack up quality wins in the Big 12 and Big Ten, respectively, to bolster its resume for the NCAAs.
Last week: 6
Results: beat Wyoming 70-67 and Utah Tech 92-62
NET ranking: 20
Next up: vs. South Florida (Saturday)
Comment: We aren’t prepared to count Iowa as an A-level victory for the Aggies just yet. Let’s see how the Hawkeyes fare against Iowa State on Thursday.
Last week: 7
Results: beat Colorado State 72-55
NET ranking: 81
Next up: vs. South Dakota State (Friday)
Comment: With Bellarmine following SDSU on the schedule, the Buffaloes should be 9-2 when Big 12 play begins. How many conference games will it take for their overall record to slide to .500?
Last week: 13
Results: beat Boise State 74-69
NET ranking: 66
Next up: vs. Missouri State (Saturday)
Comment: If you’re scoring at home — and we most definitely are — the Cougars have swept three duels with Mountain West opponents. That helps WSU’s resume, and it helps the WCC.
Last week: 12
Results: beat Southern Utah 102-66
NET ranking: 45
Next up: vs. UCLA in Phoenix (Saturday)
Comment: The former Pac-12 rivals are scheduled to meet in Las Vegas next season and in Los Angeles in 2027 at an undetermined site (but not Pauley Pavilion).
Last week: 8
Results: beat San Jose State 83-77, lost to New Mexico State 89-83
NET ranking: 87
Next up: vs. Western New Mexico (Saturday)
Comment: The win over UCLA looks better and better. The loss to NMSU looks bad, any way you slice it.
Last week: 10
Results: lost to LMU 68-64
NET ranking: 59
Next up: vs. South Dakota State (Wednesday)
Comment: One bad loss won’t obliterate Nevada’s resume. But two might. The Wolf Pack cannot afford another stumble against a third-tier opponent.
Last week: 14
Results: beat Cal State Bakersfield 82-66
NET ranking: 26
Next up: at Oregon State (Saturday)
Comment: Teams with a lower NET ranking than the Anteaters: Purdue, North Carolina, Arizona and Texas. It might not last, but it looks darn good right now.
Last week: 15
Results: Did not play
NET ranking: 61
Next up: vs. Fresno State (Wednesday)
Comment: The No. 1 recruit in the country, A.J. Dybantsa, is headed to Provo, and we aren’t talking about cross country.
Last week: Not ranked
Results: beat Cal 89-81
NET ranking: 74
Next up: vs. Merrimack (Tuesday)
Comment: Winning in Berkeley doesn’t completely offset losing at home to Cal Poly, but it helps.
Also considered: Boise State, Cal, Grand Canyon, Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado, Oregon State, San Francisco, Southern Utah, UC Santa Barbara, Utah, Washington and Wyoming
Some other games of interest this weekend, in addition to our Bradley game:
There were just 3 WCC games last Sunday through Friday, none of interest.
Some highlights from last weekend in case you missed them:
-LMU upset Nevada
-Washington St. beat Boise St.
-SMC beat Utah
And I’m sure many here watched or at least heard GU lost to Kentucky in OT after squandering a 2nd half lead.
A mixed night for the WCC, 5-4 overall.
On the positive side, Oregon St. did beat previously undefeated UC Irvine. Pepperdine and WSU took care of business vs. lessor opponents. LMU did win but needed a game winning bucket with ~20seconds left vs. a really bad 1-8 Prairie View A&M.
SMC lost to Boise St. in OT, USD lost to a bad Fresno St. and Pacific lost to UNLV.
Some bad news for WSU. Pre-season All-WCC pick Cedric Coward is out for the season after having shoulder surgery. And two other expected rotation guys who have also been out with injury are not expected to return this season.
WSU has been the surprise team in the WCC so far but they are now down to 9 healthy scholarship players and are will be missing their best player.
12/16 update:
An ex-Bronco playing a WCC squad tomorrow, Tuesday…Sacramento St. and Jacob Holt play Oregon St.
Sacramento isn’t great, just 2-8, but Jacob is killing it. He’s leading the team averaging 15.9pts and 6.3rebounds and shooting the 3 well at 15/41, 37%. Good for him…always appreciated the enthusiasm and effort he brought to the court.
Bradley beats USF which may be a good comparison game to evaluate our Broncos.
USF is a better matchup for Bradley. Both are very strong in the backcourt and weaker up front. USF doesn’t present the same positional size as SCU on the defensive end, so it’s easier for the game to just become a shootout between two teams that take lots of jumpers. Bradley is the best jump shooting team in the country and at home, so no surprise that they got the better of USF.
Whatever his shortcomings, Sendek is a better coach than Gerlufson. And Tilly is much better than any of the USF bigs. But I fear a hot USF on the Hilltop outgunning Santa Clara. SCU will need to play its best defense of the season in a couple weeks.
The conference tiers are taking shape as the last couple of OOC games take place for WCC teams.
Overall, the WCC is a very strong #6 in the conference standings, a full step below the ACC but safely ahead of the Mountain West, A-10, and Conference USA. As ever, most of that is due to the top of the conference, but the top of the conference is basically 6-deep this season with Gonzaga through SCU all being solidly top-100 squads–even (roughly) within the top-75 of Torvik/KenPom/NET as of this morning.
Gonzaga definitely leads the way but seems at least somewhat mortal like last season. There are chinks in the Zags’ armor even if it will still be quite an upset for any given team to beat them.
The group of SMC, Oregon State, USF, Wazzu, and SCU creates a second tier, at least analytically. The order depends on the ranking service, but in general, it goes SMC → Oregon State → USF → Wazzu → SCU.
Santa Clara and Oregon State are rising; the other three are falling somewhat based on recent results. USF had a weak frontcourt to begin with and is even weaker as long as Newbury stays out. Wazzu only has half of their original starters still playable and won’t have their WCC POY candidate, Cedric Coward, the rest of the season. SMC apparently can’t figure out zone defenses. But all five teams should give their opponents Quad 1/2 opportunities for most tilts this season. LMU may be able to sneak up to a Quad 2 game in LA, but don’t count on it.
That last bit will be critical for any WCC team with hopes of getting to the bubble. Currently, only Gonzaga, SMC, and Wazzu have a Quad 1 win. SCU and Wazzu have 3 Quad 2 wins apiece. USF and Oregon State have been masters of beating bad teams but each only have a single Q2 win.
So in sum, the WCC, for maybe the first time in 20+ years, presents an inside path to an at-large due to the quality at the top and upper-middle. But it will require 1-2 teams other than Gonzaga to prove themselves clearly better than the rest. If SMC, USF, OSU, Wazzu, and SCU just beat each other up with no clear winners among them, then the WCC could have a single NCAA tournament berth and get 4-5 into the NIT–a nightmare scenario for the conference.
Seems like San Francisco is on the slide. Let’s hope that’s true when we play them in a week. Probably the best year to make a statement in conference. Top is strong, but the bottom is weak. Pepperdine, Portland, Pacific, San Diego all not very good. LMU has been playing a lot better it seems like but still has some rising to do if they wanna make some noise it seems like. Very exciting
Exactly. And I should have added the bit about the Ps and San Diego: for as strong as the top/middle is in the WCC, Pacific, Portland, and San Diego, in particular, are as weak as ever. Portland looks like they’ve slid all the way back down to Terry Porter-levels–a sad state with an initially-promising coach in Legans.
All of that upper-middle of the conference will have to avoid losing to those teams at all costs. SMC might be able to handle a loss to USD and recover. But USF can’t, let alone SCU which is hanging onto any preseason hopes by a fingernail at this point.
Patty- I think your citation of injuries to WSU’s Coward and USF’s Newbury are key and agree those two teams may trend downward.
Coward is definitely out for the season and one or two other WSU bench rotation guys are out and may not return this season. I think they’re down to 9 scholarship players. They have continued to win even w/o Coward and have 4 Quad I or II wins and all loses are Quad I or II but you have to question if they can keep it up. They’re more or less down to a 6 to 7 man rotation plus a couple of others who play 5-10mins.
For USF, some on their Reddit page are speculating that Newbury may be out for the year, not certain if it’s a credible source. Without him, they get much consistent scoring from their frontcourt…several guys who would make good backups or role players playing 10-20mins but aren’t consistent contributors when thrust in to a larger role. The key is to not catch them on a night when one or more of their bigs has an uncharacteristically strong night.
Oregon St. is an enigma for me as they are doing better than I expected but I’ve barely watched them play so don’t have much of a read on them. They had a terrible season last year and lost some of their more talented starters so I wasn’t expecting much from them.
Dec 31, 2024
By Jon Wilner | jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group
UPDATED: December 31, 2024 at 7:13 AM PST
The Best of the West offers fans a candid assessment of the top teams in the western third of the country — a collection that includes the Mountain West and the former Pac-12 schools now scattered across the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and West Coast Conference.
The rankings will be published on the Hotline each Monday through the remainder of the regular season.
Last week: 1
Results: beat Gonzaga 65-62
NET ranking: 14
Next up: at Nebraska (Saturday)
Comment: The Bruins were a blown lead against North Carolina away from sweeping the Tar Heels, Oregon, Arizona and Gonzaga across four consecutive December weekends. (Tough to complain about winning three of the four.)
Last week: 2
Results: lost to UCLA 65-62, beat Pepperdine 89-72
NET ranking: 7
Next up: vs. Portland (Thursday)
Comment: The Zags lost to UConn, Kentucky and UCLA by a combined 10 points, a series of results that arguably reflects a team good enough to reach the Elite Eight but not make the Final Four.
Last week: 6
Results: beat San Diego State 67-66
NET ranking: 26
Next up: at Nevada (Tuesday)
Comment: Granted, UC San Diego is having a surprisingly impressive season. But Utah State’s home loss to the Tritons makes less sense with each passing day as the Aggies stack wins over possible NCAA Tournament teams.
Last week: 3
Results: lost to Utah State 67-66
NET ranking: 48
Next up: at Boise State (Saturday)
Comment: No secret to which end of the floor needs work: The Aztecs are 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (per the Pomeroy ratings) and 82nd on the offensive side.
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Last week: 4
Results: Did not play
NET ranking: 51
Next up: at Brigham Young (Tuesday)
Comment: There will be no easing into the Big 12 schedule for ASU, which opens conference play in Provo and makes the pilgrimage to Allen Fieldhouse next week.
Last week: 5
Results: beat Weber State 89-49
NET ranking: 10
Next up: vs. Illinois (Thursday)
Comment: Unless something goes completely haywire in the fabulous SEC, Oregon’s wins over Texas A&M and Alabama should provide plenty of resume cushion as the Ducks navigate the Big Ten.
Last week: 7
Results: beat Pacific 70-60
NET ranking: 55
Next up: vs. Pepperdine (Thursday)
Comment: The Gaels don’t have any bad losses to this point. The problem is their lineup of victories: Seven are of the Quadrant IV variety — and that imbalance doesn’t figure to improved substantially in WCC play.
Last week: 8
Results: lost to Iowa State 79-69
NET ranking: 84
Next up: at Arizona State (Saturday)
Comment: Home losses in the Big 12 are far more damaging than they were in the Pac-12 because winning on the road in conference play is vastly more difficult.
Last week: 9
Results: beat TCU 90-81
NET ranking: 24
Next up: at Cincinnati (Saturday)
Comment: If Caleb Love plays like that, well, sure: Count the Wildcats as a contender in the Big 12. But Love might go weeks before he makes four 3-pointers in a game, much less match the five he drained against TCU.
Last week: 11
Results: beat Portland 89-73 and LMU 73-59
NET ranking: 67
Next up: vs. San Francisco (Saturday)
Comment: Yes, it feels weird to type West Coast Conference next to WSU’s name. Not sure how long it will take the Hotline to get used to it. (Probably until June 30, 2026.)
Last week: 10
Results: beat Colorado State 76-68
NET ranking: 78
Next up: at Fresno State (Tuesday)
Comment: How many first-rate wins are required to offset the loss to New Mexico State? The Hotline’s supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations so far without an answer.
Last week: 12
Results: beat San Jose State 73-71
NET ranking: 54
Next up: at Wyoming (Tuesday)
Comment: The Broncos could win by 50 or lose by 50 tonight in Laramie, and nobody in Boise will even notice.
Last week: 13
Results: Did not play
NET ranking: 46
Next up: vs. Arizona State (Tuesday)
Comment: With a non-conference schedule ranked 350th (by Pomeroy) and no Quad I wins thus far, the Cougars are in danger of much worse treatment from the NCAA Tournament selection committee than they received from its College Football Playoff counterpart.
Last week: Not ranked
Results: beat Occidental 109-51
NET ranking: 58
Next up: at Fullerton (Saturday)
Comment: We were curious, and you might be, too: The Tritons’ first showdown with UC Irvine is Jan. 11 at LionTree Arena; the second meeting, in Irvine, is set for early February.
Last week: 14
Results: lost to Oakland 80-74, beat Portland 89-79
NET ranking: 56
Next up: at LMU (Thursday)
Comment: Not on our bingo card for 2024-25: Oregon State owning a top-60 NET ranking halfway through the season, especially with a fairly weak non-conference schedule.
Also considered: Cal, Grand Canyon, Nevada, San Francisco, Stanford, UC Irvine, USC and Utah
Random aside, there was a near collision at LAX between a commercial plane and a PJ… that PJ was carrying the Gonzaga men’s team. Glad everyone is okay!
Here’s an interesting link that I’ll admit to stealing from the USF message board (good find, @straightpimpinnocap.):
https://bboilercbb.github.io/conferences/WCC/index.html
The site runs the conference through 10k simulations on order of finish. It basically visualizes the tiers in the WCC and tries to adjust daily odds. You’ll see that a big box exists for USF, OSU, SMC, Wazzu, and SCU which all have a realistic probability of finishing 2nd and 6th. USF is in the pole position of the group, having beaten both Santa Clara and LMU so far. Obviously, the team predictive metrics still favor SMC.
I think this helps clarify the goal at this point: fight for a top-2 finish and let the rest go for now. There’s no at-large if they don’t finish in the top-2 and may not get one even if they do. But the WCC Tournament is more open than ever, so seeding will matter more than any time in the past 10 years. Gonzaga is not quite elite, SMC is a bubble team at best with USF nipping at its heels. SCU has a potent offense if the defense can just show up.
I appreciate the discussion, but personally I am sick of discussing the “ifs”. Let’s face it, just about every time we talk about major ifs, the ifs just never materialize.
What’s that old saying? Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.
I’m with you Buckets.
Missed opportunities has become the hallmark of Sendek regime over the past four seasons.
Solid 20+ win seasons that could have, and one could easily argue should have, had three to four additional regular season wins and at least been in discussion for at-large as a bubble team. But we haven’t even been close. Even the NIT bids in 2022 and 2023 weren’t a slam dunk and then we fell flat on our face in each of those getting bounced in the first round…more missed opportunities.
It’s the Herb Sendek M.O. Win a lot, but has only 1 conference title in his coaching career. In his stops at NC state he was unable to beat NC or Duke and at ASU he was unable to get by Arizona and UCLA.
Same story in the WCC……
LMU knocked off Oregon St. by 21 last night.
The first legit upset in the WCC amongst teams that matter, though a relatively mild upset considering it was at LMU.
But I still wouldn’t consider LMU an upper tier contender. That was their first win, they are 1-2 and face Gonzaga tomorrow and then SMC on Tuesday. They’ll likely be 1-4 at that point; their schedule will get easier after that but digging out of the hole and competing for 2nd or 3rd will be nearly impossible. Best case scenario for them is probably 10-8 and 4th or 5th place though a 7 to 9 win league season is more likely.
Related…I don’t know who LMU pissed off but they can’t be happy about the first part of their WCC schedule…5 games in 11 days, no byes and all games against upper tier teams (WSU, USF, OSU, GU and SMC).
Looking ahead to tomorrow night’s games: The primary game of interest will be USF @ WSU, two undefeated upper tier teams facing off.