Conversely, somehow our Broncos will have NINE DAYS off between the Feb 11 tilt with SMC and the Feb 20 game against LMU. And then our home game against Gonzaga is on a…Tuesday???
I’m watching USF at Wazzu, and Malik Thomas already has 27 first half points. I have to think he’s the front runner for WCC POY. I can’t think of anyone who’s close to him so far, including preseason darlings Marciulionis, Ike, and Coward (albeit out with an injury so ineligible).
Thomas is one of those guys that you can dare to beat you single-handed, and sometimes he will do just that.
I might OD on WCC hoops this evening…watched most of OSU-USD, watching WSU-USF now as well…WSU looking to pull away the later part of the 2nd half with roughly a 20-1 run. A high scoring game but also a foul fest and Thomas just fouled out, can’t see USF coming back without him.
Will watch at least some of GU-LMU…not sure I’ll have the stamina to catch SMC-Portland after that…that will probably be a an ugly game anyhow and painful to watch.
referees in that USF WSU game were a complete joke, made the whole game about them
64 combined FT attempts, 50 combined fouls. And there wasn’t even a foul down 3-4 sequence to get to those numbers
Huge week ahead for the Broncos. Win both these games and 2nd place in conference remains at least an outside shot. Lose either one and 4th place probably becomes the new ceiling.
Current NET Rankings
Gonzaga 6
St Mary’s 49
San Francisco 63
Washington State 65
Oregon State 66
Santa Clara 71
Really a huge month. The worst game between now and February is @LMU which just whooped Oregon State by 20.
Over the next seven games (using today’s numbers), there are 2 Q1 games, 4 Q2 games, and a single Q3 game (@LMU, again) that may improve to a Quad 2 if LMU stays hot. The resume stuff is mostly immaterial at this point, but if the Broncos want a redemption narrative, it happens here.
Pmac- it will take a radical turn around on Defense from where we are now - last in the WCC, giving up 86 per game. That’s 14 pts higher Per Game than last year with pretty much the same players.
Oh that also assumes our offense stays at a high level which is a very tough task.
Reality……
WSU somehow lost to Pacific again last night for the 2nd time in league play; drops WSU to 5-5. Those are Pacific’s only 2 wins in the WCC. Does help us out as WSU would have been tied w/ us and OSU for 4th place had they won as expected. A cautionary tale that the Broncos can’t overlook Pacific tomorrow regardless of how bad they are.
And two other important WCC games tomorrow:
- the GU-SMC showdown in Moraga (8pm on ESPN)
- WSU @ USF; we probably need to root for WSU since USF is ahead of us in the standings at 7-3.
I can’t figure out the UOP game. UOP had three fewer turnovers and five more offensive rebounds than the Cougars. Those are good stats certainly. But somehow they got 12 more shots off than Wazzu? I don’t even know how that’s possible. But 12 more shots is a pretty good recipe to win. At just an average shooting percentage, that’s a 10-15 point advantage walking away.
Better not sleep on Pacific. Not good. But good enough.
Maybe the discrepancy is attributable to jump balls/getting the first possession 1st half/2nd half? Seems like that could account for some of it? Or perhaps it is due to the old “team rebound” stat that they use as a phantom placeholder.
Actually, I think it’s the foul differential. UOP fouled more than Wazzu, so more WSU possessions ended at the charity stripe rather than with a field goal. So +5 possessions on O-Boards, +3 on TOs, and +4 on “possessions not ending with a shooting foul/bonus.”
The last category is obviously made up and not a good strategy, but I think it accounts for the remaining shots. Maybe add in a favorable jump ball like you suggest, @buckets
I imagine most on here watched SMC beat GU last night. SMC got out to an early 10+ pt lead but GU gradually closed the gap and took the lead mid-2nd half with numerous lead changes. GU had the ball, down 2 with ~20-25 seconds and a chance to win; Nembhard missed a good 3pt look, rebound was deflected out of bounds, GU possession w/ 5secs but they settled for an Ike long jump shot…not the shot you want at that stage.
And USF thumped WSU by 24 without Malik Thomas who was nursing an arm or wrist injury…I watched the first ~10mins and the announcers weren’t certain on the injury. Thomas was dressed but ultimately couldn’t go. A WSU win would have been best for the Broncos; USF now is in sole possession of 2nd place at 8-3, GU is a half game back in 3rd at 7-3.
WSU had a rough 0-2 week combined with Thursday’s Pacific loss and they’ve dropped to 7th place at 5-6, now behind LMU.
LMU’s scheduled has been easier of late and they’ve quietly gone a 5 game win streak with a comfortable win at USD last night and are now tied for 5th with OSU at 6-4, a half game back of the Broncos.
Looking ahead to this coming week, the games of most interest and relevance to the upper half WCC standings:
Thursday:
- SMC @ USF. A USF upset would be huge for them and make them a front runner for 2nd place…I don’t see it happening, but possible.
- LMU @ GU. With LMU’s win streak they are now just a game behind GU in the standings. I don’t foresee an LMU win, but still worth watching.
- WSU @ OSU. An OSU win keeps them in contention for a top 4 finish, and more less eliminates WSU from the same.
Saturday:
- USF @ LMU. Assuming USF loses to SMC on Thurs., the Dons will need to beat a decent LMU team on the road to avoid an 0-2 week which would probably drop them from 2nd down to 4th or 5th place.
- SMC @ OSU. OSU has a legit shot and has shown they can beat good teams (GU, SCU). Rataj is arguably more talented than anyone on SMC’s squad, Fallah may hold his own vs. Saxen. Wouldn’t bet on an OSU win but wouldn’t be shocked by it either.
I’m not worried about a USF surge yet. They are the beneficiaries of what you might call the “green and gold mirage” to this point. Because of the unbalanced schedule, they’ve played a much weaker WCC slate to date. They still have to play Gonzaga twice and go to Corvallis where the Beavers play like jungle cats (compared to kittens on the road).
If USF upsets SMC, I’ll start to sweat, but I think that the Dons are going to have to pull some upsets to even get 4th at this point.
Torvik has SMC, USF, and GU as having the toughest three conference schedules remaining. SCU is 9th by the same metric. Oregon State is so weak on the road, that I pretty much expect another loss to a non-GU or SMC squad for them. If the Broncos just hold serve, they should finish third. But per your post in the other thread, there’s quite a gulf between should and will.
We are back in one of those weird scheduling cycles for WCC play. Both SCU and SMC have to play 3 games in 5 days between Thursday and the following Tuesday (so does LMU, for that matter).
Our schedule is very friendly relative to SMC’s: at Portland, hosting USD, then drive to Moraga. The Gaels, by comparison, need to go to the Hilltop, then fly to Corvallis, and then host the Broncos in Moraga.
It’s a Bennett-coached team, so I am not expecting the Gaels to be anything less than an utterly stalwart opponent on Feb 11. But the Broncos could not have asked for better circumstances to try to get revenge here.
Despite LMU’s horrible home court broadcast, I enjoyed watching a good chunk of the USF @ LMU game last night. Some things I noted:
- Gerlufsen does a nice job of making adjustments. He and his assistants do a balanced job of communicating from the sideline without being too intrusive (quick talks with his guys after they make a shot while LMU was moving the ball up court slowly; calling out picks/screens/switches)
- Swapping between man-to-man and a 2-3 zone defense. He seemed to do it maybe 15% of LMU’s possessions. It worked for about 3 possessions before LMU figured it out and USF switched back.
- USF plays an aggressive defense. This was the biggest difference in the game. LMU shot 52% from the floor versus 39% for USF. But USF forced 18 turnovers, 7 better than LMU’s season average of 11. USF themselves only had 10 turnovers.
- USF is a good free throw shooting team. They shot 85% (23-27) from the line. Three guys were perfect from the line (18-18 combined).
- There was one stretch in the first half when USF went scoreless for 3 minutes and LMU closed the gap from 10 pts to 3 points. Despite USF going ice cold on offensive during those 3 minutes, the defense held the Lions to 1-4 shooting.
- LMU hung tough throughout the second half, never falling behind by more than 8 points and closing it down to 2 pts late in the game. But USF never got flustered, kept their composure, and went 4-4 from the FT line in the final 15 seconds to seal it.
LMU is a solid team, it took them a good chunk of the season to figure it out, but they are playing well now. But USF parried the Lions well and played nearly consistently and solidly from tip-off to final buzzer. Despite @PattyMac’s disagreement with me, I think USF is good. The Dons play to their strengths and obfuscate their weaknesses. I think they have a great shot at finishing the conference at the 2 or 3 seed. We’ll see, the proof is in the pudding.
P.S. We can’t sleep on the Lions. They can throw a wrench in any of the upper echelon teams’ seeding aspirations.
P.P.S. I know I said I’d watch the Gaels-Beavers matchup. That lasted about 5 minutes. It was clear to me that SMC was in complete control of the game so I tuned out. Here is the chart to show how well the Gaels played throughout:
A little disagreement around here is healthy! And until USF drops one to a bad team, I’m the one who’s wrong here.
In my stubbornness, I still see USF’s front court as being a liability that’s covered up by often spectacular guard play. Sure, USF beat SMC, but by a hair and only after the Gaels went 3-23 from the three point line. Bennett’s team doesn’t really hoist up bad shots–they were just missing everything, and USF squeaked by.
USF lost by 17 in Pullman, by 20 in Moraga, and by 23 in Leavey. The 30-0 run by the Gaels against SCU was a special kind of hell, but USF wasn’t really any better against the Gaels their first time out than the Broncos were (albeit, on the road).
But for all that, all that really matters is that the Dons are one full game ahead and with the likely tie-breaker. Until that situation really shifts, I think you’re winning this one @buckets
It’s not about winning the argument @PattyMac. It’s just fun banter. You probably know basketball much better than I do. I’ve been watching SCU hoops since 1969, when I was 4 months old (not that I remember those first few years) – and therefore I’m probably a bit more jaded than you. I agree with you on one thing: on paper the Dons don’t look great. But as a team, they play well together and are coached well.
They certainly could (like any team) trip up down the stretch and/or suffer a major injury to one of their two excellent guards. Barring that, I think they’ll finish 2/3. Certainly I think they’ll finish 4 or better.
Fun banter until an actual Don enters the chat, that is. Then it’s war.
Oh and don’t overrate my basketball knowledge. I’ve come a long way through the years, but I promise that if I were to take control of the Broncos, you all would be praying for the second coming of Kerry Keating.
Good night in the WCC standings for the Broncos with LMU and Oregon State losing. 4 Seed looks to be in our grasp.
I guess I jinxed OSU…mentioned at the end of SMC game thread to not sleep on the Beavers contending for 3rd/4th…not likely now.
Pacific’s 25 pt win over an LMU that had been playing well of late. Pacific was down 1 at half but outscored LMU 51-25 in the 2nd half.
Pacific’s Lamar Washington had a heck of a stat line: 31pts, 10rebs, 6assists, 5 steals.