Updated Net Rankings

Up to #74 in Net Rankings. I think we want BYU to beat USF on Thursday because that would probably push BYU back up to top 30 (and thus a second Quad 1 win for us.) We definitely had the schedule for an at-large bid this year with TCU, Fresno State, Boise State, and LA Tech all having good seasons.

Agree, the rough Fresno State to Boise St stretch killed that chance.

That being said, a 1 or 2 loss February would put us in position for an NIT bid.

Gonzaga is a loss obviously but the St Marys and USF games at home are winnable. Gotta be perfect against the dregs though which is always a tall order.

Per Lunardi’s latest Bracketology projections, an NET in the mid-60s puts us in wrong-side-of-the-bubble territory, especially if we get there with a win over USF or SMC or both. Being in “the next four out” seems like the ceiling for now but one that should be pretty close to clinching an NIT invite, maybe even with a decent seed.

Frustrating that we had the schedule and talent to get an at-large, even without beating Gonzaga. Those couple OOCs that were winnable hurt (LA Tech, Fresno and UCI were winnable, Boise never felt as much, though we did lead at half).

That said, I would be pretty happy with the NIT, but not counting chickens before they hatch.

Would we go to the NIT with one clunker loss in WCC against one of the lesser 5 on the road, and not beating USF or SMC at Leavey? Likely not… So lots left to root for, I’ll certainly be watching.

Torvik has us basically pickem for the home games versus St.Mary’s and USF, and then favored for all other games with the exception of Gonzaga. In the dream scenario (highly unlikely but not impossible) that we win out with the exception of Gonzaga…and advance to the WCC finals only to lose to Gonzaga, would be fun to see what our Net Ranking would be.

a win against SMC will be more valuable, as it would be a Quad 1 win, whereas a win against USF would be a Quad 2 win.

Speaking of the Gaels, they have quietly worked their way up to #19 in the NET rankings. Randy Bennett does it again! Is he likely coach of the year? Or Golden?

I think they have to give it to Few again this year. Gonzaga has just been too dominant. If St. Mary’s steals a win from Gonzaga then you could make a strong case for Bennett.

If we win out (excepting @GU) and win two WCC Tourney games, can we sneak in to the Dance? A man can dream…tall order of course.

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Yes, thats certainly a possibility. Under that scenario SCU would at least be on the bubble.

So many variables, but it’s dang nice to say:

  • we have a good basketball team
  • we played a challenging schedule
  • we came out ahead more often than not, including against some good teams.

Come what may for the rest of the year…

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Well, that might be an auto bid…we’d be 12-4 and likely no worse than tied for 2nd as SMC has one loss now but still has 2 games left vs. GU (assume two losses there), that makes them 12-4 at best then comes down to tiebreakers. Not to mention, SMC also has single games remaining vs. BYU and USF.
2nd place means byes to the semifinals of the tourney so 2 tourney wins would make us the champs and give us the autobid.

If one of SCU/USF/SMC somehow upsets GU in league play then that throws things for a loop and turns the prognosticating in to advanced calculus…but I don’t see GU losing.

Under a similar scenario, if we were finish 2nd in league and lose to GU in the tourney finals we’d be 23-10 and guessing our NET would be around 45-55. I think that would put us on the bubble in that ‘Last 4’ and ‘2nd 4’ in/out discussion. Yes…fun to dream.
Catch-22 on these scenarios is SMC would likely drop out of Quad 1 as has BYU with their recent freefall so some of our actual (BYU) and theoretical (SMC) wins end up looking slightly less impressive. Plus we need our non-conf opponents to do well and not tank to boost our NET as much as possible.
And this circles back to the wins we left on the table in non-con…

But pragmatically we need to take care of business and win at least 1 of 2 this week.

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At least we have the best team in years to root for. If we were to win out (except for GU) I think we would be 2nd in league given the schedules of all the teams. BYU has fallen off a cliff so their chances of a tourney bid I would think would be remote/unlikely. USF and SMC have been touted as shoo ins for the big dance so if we can get wins against them why wouldn’t SCU be considered. Maybe a tall order but IF we can pull it off then I Ike our chances. We really need to beat Portland, Pepperdine and LMU so we have no “bad losses” which I think would get us into the NIT if not the NCAA’s. Let’s have a big Bronco turnout for the games and hopefully get a couple of wins this week. Go Broncos!!!

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I love the highs and lows of this board….
#HerbOut after losses to Fresno and boise, etc

Now we’re talking about running the table! (minus Gonzaga)

One game/week at a time, let’s go 1-1 this and then I’ll believe anything is possible. I’m loving this ride and hope we can keep it up. When’s the last time we haven’t dropped at least a game to the lower tier teams in conference play?

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You are so right. I follow the team and root but can’t criticize the coaching or players, just a fan. For so many years we have been irrelevant. This is our best year in a long time and they are exciting to watch. We do have to take things one game at a time . LMU on the road could be tough and Portland must be improved only losing to USF by 3. A 1-1 week would be a success, 2-0 amazing, and 0-2 would deflating, but our season would depend on how we play against LMU, Portland and Pepperdine and the league tournament. I thought we might be good with the players we had returning this year and the recruits, but really would have not thought the big dance would even be in the conversation. I am very pleased with how this Bronco team has performed,

I think most posters rise and fall with the teams performance though some are more critical, probably because they know more or see more games in person. GO BRONCOS!!!

SCU is finally playing like that early season squad that thumped Stanford, Nevada, and TCU. Finally getting physical and looking sure of themselves. As I see it SCU is the 3rd most talented team in the WCC (but talent only counts for so much… BYU the 2nd most talented and SMC the 5th most talented exemplify that).
There’s no reason SCU can’t take it to both USF and SMC this week. 2 wins would certainly put this team in the conversation.

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While next week is important - winning 1 of 2 would be awesome. The last 5 might be just as important to not not have a let down with 4 road games - 3 against really beatable teams. Losses to LMU away have haunted us the past several seasons. Maybe a win against St. Mary’s and no let down against Pepp, LMU, and Portland get’s us into the NIT conversation. :blush:

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Playing with the Bart Torvik tourney cast and changing the UCI, LATECH, and CAL losses to wins and seeing us shoot into the tourney hurts

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is it possible that we (or maybe it is just me, and I should say “I”) underestimated the effect of losing Vrankic to mono for 1+ months? And that it has taken him a lot of playing time to get his game legs and his mojo back? When I watch the games, I don’t see him being a standout (like JW or Justice), but a good contributor (especially against smaller defenders). I’m not saying he’s not good (he IS), I’m just saying that he isn’t the same as losing JW, for example.

Like you said, betterer, this team looks like the team we saw in the early going, and the biggest factor seems to be a HEALTHY Josip.

Also, I want to point out the energy that both Stewart and Holt bring to the team when they are on the court! I really enjoy watching their hustle. Their increasing minutes have coincided with the team’s success after the mid-season lull.

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Chance to beat up a ranked opponent beside GU

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I’ve been a big Josip fan for all five years. But I think it’s easy to overstate the frustration of the 2-3 possessions where he crab dribbles from 18 feet away and gets blocked or has the ball stolen. That then discounts the possessions (of which there are many more) where he starts with his face to the basket and drives in pretty powerfully, usually with stellar effect. He is also so, so effective at drawing fouls and now at passing under the hoop. Plus an occasional three-pointer. Unsurprisingly, the stats back him up with him being a top-10 player in points-over-replacement in the WCC.

I think that a developed Holt and Tongue, plus a leap forward for Braun and Bediako will be enough to replace Josip next season, even if the end result looks different. But there will be a definite hole there.

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