I must be conflating with the way Sagarin used to do it
Keep an eye tonight on ASU at BYU and Davidson at Loyola Chicago. Those two former SCU opponents are the most important.
The Broncos desperately need for ASU to stay better than 100 in NET and for LUC to fight its way up to 200. ASU doesnât need to win, just be competitive; LUC probably needs to win and ideally win big (and then win like 7 straight after that).
Weâve also got XU @ Marquette and SLU @ VCU.
We are asking the universe for a lot, and we should be thankful that SLU has had as good of a year as they haveâŚ
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Not a great night for our Broncos:
LUC lost
ASU got obliterated
Xavier lost by 1pt
at least SLU won
The universe found us unworthy.
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Going into tonightâs games, SCU still at 62 in NET ranking.
Updated Rankings of notable OOC opponents to-date:
Nevada: 75 (-7 spots)
McNeese St: 50 (-1 spot)
SLU: 29 (no change)
Minnesota: 83 (+10 spots)
ASU: 94 (-9 spots)
New Mexico: 46 (+9 spots)
LUC: 309
Rankings of WCC opponents:
Gonzaga: 4 (no change)
SMC: 23 (+1 spot)
USF: 109 (no change)
USD: 221 (-3 spots)
LMU: 141 (no change)
Pepp: 261 (no change)
Pacific: 118 (-1 spot)
Portland: 235 (+2 spots)
Seattle: 108 (no change)
OSU: 226 (+1 spot)
WSU: 158 (-1 spot)
future WCC member UCSD: 80 (-1 spot)
I truly think the SLU loss will prove to be the pivotal game if SCU ends up being 1st 4 Out or Next 4 Out.
If that game had resulted in a win, the Broncos wouldâve earned a Quad 1 win.
Of all the teams ahead of SCU in the NET, only one school (TCU at #42) has a Q4 loss. To their credit, the Horned Frogs have a Q1 win.
Now it will be critical to take a least one game against the Zags or Gaels. Otherwise, it will likely require SCU to win the WCC tourney to secure an auto bid.
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Iâll be pumped if we are first four or next 4 out (what a sad comment).
That hasnât happened since I became a Bronco 
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Loyola Chicago is basically a death knell for any at-large hopes unless they rise a loooong way. And ASU is perilously close to a Q3 loss now. Nevada is only a Q3 win as of today after their loss.
The Broncos are once again at the mercy of their opponentsâ success. If not for the LUC loss, they would have an almost identical record to SMC who has an 87% chance of making the Tournament, per Torvik.
so much for âneutralâ court games in Santa Cruz. Seemed to be underwhelming on that side of the hill.
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AgreedâŚ..Plus, I donât know if anyone noticed that there were 470 TOTAL attendees for BOTH games. Thereâs nothing to be gained from playing in Santa Cruz. Iâd rather see a home and home versus neutral site games like we will see again with Loyola Chicago next season.
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Hereâs an interesting and well-designed site that gives data visualization for at-large consideration, among other things. It estimates that SCU needs to have 25 wins on Selection Sunday to be in the field, 24 to be on the bubble.
The analysis doesnât discriminate based on the wins themselves like, say, the Torvik Teamcast tool. But itâs another interesting fan tool, and I like the simplicity of saying, âX number of wins is probably necessary to get to the Tournament.â Oversimplified, probably, but easier in a pinch to track than obsessing over Nevadaâs journeys back and forth across the #75 line (Q2 vs Q3 for the Broncos).
Use responsibly.
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So based on that threshold, the Broncos need to go 10-2 the rest of the way in conference (meaning beating Zags or SMC once), and if a conference tourney 3 seed, win the quarterfinal game. That gets SCU to 25 wins. For the bubble projection of 24 wins, it would likely mean going 0-fer against Zags and SMC, and sweeping the rest of the league, and again needing to win at least the semifinal tourney game.
Unfortunately, that Q4 loss is a major stain. As I mentioned in another post, over the past two tourneys, not one mid-major at-large bid team had a Q4 loss.
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Am I seeing this correctly? In four days, we jumped 11 spots to #51 in the NET rankings?
Gonzaga #6
SLU to #21
SMC #30
UNM #41
McNeese #52
Nevada #75
Minnesota #83
ASU #91
UCSD #101
USF #103
Seattle #119
Pacific #120
Interesting side note: 13-4 Stanford (#73) is 3-1 in Quad 1 games. They also have a loss to a Quad 4 team.
Also interesting to note: Miami (OH) is 14-0 and ranked #53. They havenât played one Q1 game, just 3 Q2âs, 2 Q3âs, and 9 Q4âs.
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Iâll add that they almost certainly need a Q1 win and maybe a couple. 2023 VCU is a potential model. That team had 2 Q3 losses. But they also had two Q1 wins and went 7-0 in Q2. If the NET froze today, all that is possibly left on the table for the Broncos is potentially 5 Q1 games (5 games against GU and SMC, including the semi-final and championship in Vegas) and potentially 3 Q2 games (at Pacific, at USF, and a quarter- or semifinal matchup in Vegas with a top-100 opponent). Itâs probably not enough to just clean up against everyone else, especially not with a Q4 loss.
2022 USF had a Q4 loss. But they also had 4 Q1 wins. If SCU gets 4 Q1 wins, theyâll be in the championship game in Vegas.
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I need to take it back â one of the 14 wins was against a D2 opponent. Against D1 competition, SCU is 13-5. To get to 25 wins before post-season play will be a monumental task.
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The site I shared includes CP Humboldt as a win for its purposes. What I like is that it orders the games by âwin likelihood.â So you can see that, for instance, Santa Clara can get to the bubble (per the site, not me) by winning every game itâs projected to win. But, of course, you have to get pretty lucky or be really good to win all of those. And since it would still only give SCU a single Q1 win, I remain very dubious that just beating SMC in Leavey would be enough.
Still, fun for discussion purposes. And like I said, the simplicity of the visual is very nice.
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Creeped up to #49 after last nightâs win, just above SDSU at #50 (despite the Aztecs having one Q1 win and zero Q4 losses).
ASUâs âquality lossâ to Arizona last night vaulted them up 10 spots to #81.
Xavier at 102. We need them to get to 75 or better to become a Quad 1 win, correct?
The hope for Xavier being a Q1 win I think is basically gone.
I think our at-large hopes basically rest on Saturday. Win and you remain on the back end of the bubble with two major opportunities to move up (GU/@ SMC). Lose and you must win out or youâre done.
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I agree with this. I think they need two wins against GU and SMC, so while it doesnât foreclose the theoretical pathway if the Broncos lose Saturday, it is eliminating their far best chance to get back on some semblance of the right track.
Broken record here, but itâs just the LUC loss. That one is so rotten that it will affect the whole bushel if not offset by major wins. Without LUC, the Broncos could probably hope to just get one win against GU/SMC and sneak in with a boatload of Q2 wins and no bad losses. Not so after Santa Cruz.
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