DRatings Projections

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DRatings provided an update as of today, Jan 4th for both the NCAA field and NIT field.

WCC NCAA:

Gonzaga…#2 seed
St. Mary’s…#4 seed

WCC NIT:

Santa Clara…#5 seed
BYU…#6 seed

I know that we always have our eye on the BIG prize, but hopefully we can all agree that the team has played very well up to now and it’s great to see the national recognition, but it’s also well deserved.

Yes, a few of those losses could have swayed in our favor, but you could also say the same for a couple of wins…i.e. Depaul and Wyoming.

Overall, the team has played well and I expect that we will be a Top 4 team in the conference, barring any major injuries aside from Carlos Marshall.

GO BRONCOS!!!

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the good news is that we don’t have any horrible losses.

Currently:

Utah State: 13-2
UCF: 11-4
SJSU: 11-5
SMC: 13-4

The real blemish is that USU’s two losses were against slightly below .500 teams. That team could very easily have been undefeated had they not lost to Weber State and SMU (both losses were by just 3 points).

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DRatings latest projection for both NCAA and NIT as it relates to WCC: (Jan 11th)

NCAA:

GU… #2 Seed
SMC…#4 Seed

NIT:

SCU…#6 Seed
BYU…#7 Seed

Site note: Both Boise St and UCF, two non conference opponents, are both currently projected as #1 seeds for the NIT.

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Boise State and UCF are good comps for what it takes to be on the bubble.

Boise State is currently #25 in the NET (with an 11 spot leap after a big win over UNLV at UNLV). Those Broncos are 2-1 in Quad 1 and 5-2 in Quad 2 for a total of 7-3 across the top two quadrants. They have only one loss outside that.

UCF is a little lower at #35. They are 1-2 in Quad 1 and 3-1 in Quad 2 for a total of 4-3 across the top quadrants. They also have a single Quad 4 loss.

SCU, right now, is 1-4 in Quad 1 (because of that Boise State jump) and 1-0 in Quad 2 (Iona neutral) for a total of 2-4 across the top quadrants. The SJSU loss is currently Quad 3 and our only loss outside the top two quandrants.

Here’s what I think it would take to get SCU to the bubble at this point:

  • Boise stays top-30 NET to keep that as a Quad 1 win.
  • Iona (currently 53 after a bad loss to Quinnipiac) gets back into the top-50. That becomes another Quad 1 win.
  • BYU stays hot and gets to the top-75 in NET. This will come at the expense of other WCC teams like LMU and USF. Then Santa Clara wins in the Marriott Center. That’s another Quad 1 win.
  • Santa Clara must take one of the two away games at GU or SMC. Fortunately, SMC is actually neck-and-neck with GU in the various computer rankings. So it actually doesn’t matter as much which one but for the human element of Selection Sunday (which will likely give greater weight to a win in Spokane than Moraga). There’s another Quad 1 win.
  • Santa Clara probably needs to win one more against GU/SMC in the WCC tournament semi-final. One more Quad 1 win.
  • Lose no more than 1 game at home and only to BYU or LMU. But not both. And better, I think, to beat USF at USF and drop one at home to LMU/BYU than the inverse.
  • Get to top-45 in the NET. Honestly, that likely happens if all the above takes place.

That’s a pretty incredible string of if’s–probably less than a 5% chance if that. SCU probably has better odds to just win the WCC Tournament, honestly.

But that would leave SCU as 5-5 in Quad 1. Irvine could sneak into the top-75 for a Quad 2 win. If they get a quarterfinal matchup with BYU or LMU, that could be Quad 2. So maybe 7-5 in the top two quadrants is about as good as it gets.

Santa Clara scheduled well enough, but with Wyoming, NMSU, and Cal all well below preseason expectations, there were fewer opportunities. The home loss to SJSU remains a blemish, but thanks to Tim Miles, it’s not a per se fatal one. But now all that’s left is hoping to beat GU/SMC at least two out of three and pretty much sweep everyone else.

For a glimmer (truly just a glimmer) of hope: SCU is still barely on the positive side of Torvik’s Wins-Above-Bubble metric. SCU was -2 in that metric this time last year (i.e. two losses off the bubble for a bid).

So there’s still some small hope. I genuinely think that SCU is better than BYU. And I also doubt that SCU goes 0-3 the rest of the way vs GU and SMC. But can they sweep BYU? Can they get two wins against the top? Can they not drop either game to USD? That’s what it will take from here.

EDIT: I couldn’t find historical NET numbers. But Torvik has USF for last year as 4-6 in Quad 1, 5-2 in Quad 2, and only one loss outside the top two quadrants. So 9-8 in the top two quadrants and a final rank of #23 with a 10 seed. For reference.

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Patty Mac…Solid analysis across the board!!

Yes, that Iona win will hopefully become more meaningful with a rising NET, and valid points with upcoming games against BYU and SMC.

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Good deep dive Patty.

I said earlier in the season when BYU was struggling to not sleep on them. If you’re watching the BYU-GU you see why. They are youngish incl a freshman starting pt guard plus 2 sophomore starters and Stephen Johnson was hurt for a long stretch earlier in the season. But they’ve been playing better and better and their NET and Torvik rankings have steadily improved. Going to be very difficult to sweep them, I’d be content with a split.

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BYU came within a hair of beating the Zags. Basically a mirror of the USF game from last week: the Zags look barely conscious, home team carries momentum, then the Zags take a lead with fewer than 10 seconds remaining and force a horrid final offensive possession from the stunned home squad. BYU will be plenty challenging in the Marriott Center.

(As an aside, I was thinking about how there are likely fewer Gonzaga alums in and around Provo than any other WCC locale, giving BYU the best homecourt advantage over the Zags because their fans can’t get any more than 10% of the seats in the MC.)

Portland up by 10 against the Dons at the half. Gonna be darn tough to not drop any bad ones in conference.

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From the Broncos perspective, all favorable outcomes in the Thurs. WCC games.

Portland beats USF; USF now 1-4 in 9th place with a Saturday game vs. SMC looming so likely to go to 1-5 with little to no chance at 3rd/4th place. Portland earns their first win but plays at GU Saturday so likely to fall to 1-4.

GU survives vs. BYU. And SMC over LMU.
Beating out SMC or GU for 1st or 2nd is highly unlikely for our Broncos especially after losing to each so it’s best for us if those two don’t lose any games to teams competing with us for 3rd/4th such as BYU or LMU.

USD over Pepperdine. Pepperdine still winless; given Pepp’s talent level, an indictment of Romar’s ability to do anything well other than recruit.

USD moves to 2-3 and plays LMU Saturday. If USD beats LMU the Toreros quietly become a bit of a dark horse and a team to keep an eye on as they have one of the easiest schedules in the league only playing GU and BYU once each. And they’re already done playing BYU and have played SMC so just 1 game left each vs. SMC and GU.

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I think the Broncos could very well beat St Mary’s IF they play the same physical game. St Mary’s is NOT a finesse team and you have to play a combined game of football and basketball with them. (Just be as physical and it will throw them off their game). Gonzaga is not a winnable game. The WCC officials have given them THREE games this season already. They will continue with this trend and I cannot be convinced otherwise.

Portland makes me nervous. They have talent and they are hungry. LMU and BYU are gonna be tough but all three are doable.

Basically, we cannot take any team for granted and the SJSU loss does not sit well since Cam was out sick for that one and despite Herbs lack of faith in my son - I am certain he would have made an impact on that game.

In summary. The Broncos HAVE to go without a loss for the rest of the season - minus Gonzaga. I am writing that one off. Only way to get around that is a 20-pt lead to make it PAINFULLY obvious when the officials start playing their games.

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It’s truly heart warming that you’ve been baptized by the wcc, welcome to hating smc and gonz and the refs for life :slight_smile:

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The refs the most, lol.

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LOL. I used to officiate. When I see a trend of fouls called in our favor are always on the floor fouls, while Gonzaga were all shooting fouls - that gets suspect for me.

Then there is the lead ref on the baseline making mid-range calls and there is NO WAY he is seeing the same. Those calls above the FT line are for the trail ref or the center ref to make. Things like that drive me nuts.

As for SMC - in a league (WCC) that calls such ridiculously soft fouls, they seem to look the other way when it pertains to SMC. This leaves a ridiculously unfair advantage when their opponent is being manhandled - but is not allowed to play in the same manner.

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There’s WCC officiating for games between the 7 “other” teams, in which one is not allowed to breathe on an opponent. These games can be long and excruciating.

And then there is WCC officiating for games involving GU, SMC, and BYU, in which one is allowed to be extremely physical (especially if you are GU, SMC, and BYU).

This is the way of the WCC world, IMO, for a long time.

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DRatings latest projection for both NCAA and NIT as it relates to WCC.

As of Jan 18th update:

GU…NCAA #2 Seed…No change
SMC…NCAA #5 Seed…Down from #4

SCU…NIT #5 Seed…Up from #6
Broncos projected as the Top 5 seed currently amongst the other 3 #5 seeds.

BYU…NIT #7 Seed…Down from #6

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DRatings latest projections as of today, Jan 25th:

GU… .#4 Seed NCAA
SMC…#5 Seed NCAA

SCU…#5 Seed NIT
LMU…#8 Seed NIT

BYU…OUT

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DRatings latest projections as of today, Feb 1st:

GU…#4 Seed NCAA…down 1 line
SMC…#6 Seed NCAA…down 1 line

SCU…#6 Seed NIT…down 1 line
LMU…#7 Seed NIT…up 1 line

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DRatings latest projections as of today, Feb 8th:

GU…NCAA #4 Seed
SMC…NCAA #5 Seed

SCU…NIT #6 Seed (rated top line 6 seed)
BYU…NIT #7 Seed (they’re back for now)

LMU…Out

Personal observations: Broncos win @ USF helped. Surprised to see Gaels not higher than a #5 seed with a current Net of 6 vs 13 for GU, and head to head over Zags. BYU gained with win over LMU and Lions hurt by back to back losses @ BYU and even more so @ USD.