Tip-off: Wednesday, 6pm in Santa Cruz, CA (neutral site)
TV: Baller.tv ($9.95 for single game access)
Line: Torvik: Broncos -9.9, 84% win probability; ESPN: No line, Broncos 71% win probability
Torvik: Broncos #41, Mean Green #152
(Broncos #31, UNT #184 over Last 10 Games)
Mean Green
Here’s the yin and yang of Santa Clara. The Broncos are solidly a top-60 team, already hovering around last year’s peak. They have no bad losses with all three losses well within Q1/Q2 territory. And yet, they are on a two-game losing streak having played 60 minutes of their worst basketball of the season over the last two matches. Enter a North Texas team desperate for redemption.
UNT is a solid mid-major program out of the American. When this game was scheduled, it was reasonable to expect a Q2 opportunity for both squads, maybe even a Q1 game if either was firing on all cylinders. Instead, UNT has looked way down though they enter with the same record as Santa Clara. Here, the difference is winning close with almost every team, no matter how bad: by 2 points over Loyola-Chicago, by 3 points over Prairie View A&M, by 2 points over Houston Christian, by just 1 point over South Alabama, and an overtime tilt against Eastern Washington. UNT should have beaten Oregon State in the choke of the season so far. Against top-100 competition, they played a decently tight game against TCU and got walloped by SMC.
UNT plays down to competition. They are at least capable of playing up to competition as well. The Broncos need to get this one and right the ship. But expect the Mean Green to have some fight in them. Whatever the margins and the competition, this is still an 8-win team.
(Likely) Starters and Top Bench:
| Height + Position | Name | Torvik Adj. Efficiency | PPG | Other Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-2 PG | Je’Shawn Stevenson | 2.6 | 16.5 | 1.4 stls; 37.2% shooting |
| 6-4 Guard | Cole Franklin | -0.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 stls; 32.4% shooting |
| 6-4 Guard | David Terrell, Jr. | 1.8 | 11.1 | 5.4 asts; 3.1 TOs |
| 6-8 Forward | Reece Robinson | 1.2 | 7.1 | 4.4 rebs |
| 6-9 Center | Dylan Arnett | 0.7 | 7.8 | 6.6 rebs; 1.1 stls; 28.6% FTs |
| 6-9 Center | Josiah Shackleford | 0.2 | 6.8 | 37.5% FTs |
| 6-7 Forward | Demarion Watson | -1.7 | 3.1 | 3.2 rebs; 1.1 stls; 20.8% from 3P |
UNT basically has a bevvy of inefficient guards and bigs who do little on the glass and even less from the charity stripe. What do they do well? They steal the ball. Five different players average at least one steal per game. They play decent defense, keeping their MIA offense afloat to win squeakers against bad teams. You better believe that UNT will put all their chips on getting SCU to give up lazy passes, get trapped trying to iso from the corner, and firing low-percentage 3Ps en route to a multi-minute scoring drought. The Broncos, for their part, shouldn’t do those things. The Mean Green will not be able to outscore SCU without the Broncos stalling out their offense and offering UNT the ball.
I expected to see a renewed Santa Clara last game and got that for exactly 20 minutes. Santa Clara should beat this UNT team by 10+ points. But that will take real focus, effort, and consistency that the Broncos have not managed in the last 3 games.
Prediction: 86-68 Santa Clara. The Broncos come out firing, led by Hammond with 24. Bukky has a better game and manages 14 points of his own with 4 blocks. We get our first Gehrig Normand sighting along the way.
