Tip-off: Friday, 7pm in the Leavey Center TV: ESPN+ Line: Torvik: Broncos -4.9, 68% win probability
McNeese
The Cowboys are coming through for the return game after last year’s match in Lake Charles. Like Santa Clara, McNeese has only played a single tilt against a non-D1 opponent so far. Bill Armstrong takes over the reins after Will Wade returned to the high major ranks, taking the NC State job–redemption after recruiting violations (remember those?) got him fired from LSU. Armstrong kept a few key returners from a team that won a Tournament game last season, including Javohn Garcia, the reigning Southland Player of the Year. So fully expect that the Broncos will be plenty challenged in this one.
6-10 center Jerrell Colbert (2.5 pts, 1.8 rebs)
Key Bench: 6-1 guard Tyshawn Archie (9.3 pts, 1.1 stls); 6-4 guard Larry Johnson (xfer from Creighton, former 4-star recruit)
As the first D1 opponent for both teams, we have precious little that can reliably be said about McNeese except that this is a plenty talented mid-major squad. They are universally predicted to finish atop the Southland Conference once again. Armstrong worked for Will Wade at LSU and brings back two major contributors, so there’s more continuity to this McNeese squad than one might expect. Getting the Conference POY to run-it-back under a new coach speaks to the program’s development even in a challenging new era.
That said, last year’s Cowboys really made their presence felt on the defensive end, being highly disruptive in the passing lanes and running a fairly deep rotation (often 10 guys) to keep defensive energy high. Looking at the steal rates of this year’s roster, there’s good reason to believe that strategy continues. Last year, the Broncos played one of their best and most disciplined games against the Cowboys. But that was a redemptive game after an awful November for Santa Clara; this is effectively the debut for both teams.
The numbers say that Santa Clara should pull this out. But expect a real test out of the gate, and if Santa Clara hasn’t yet mastered ball control and crisp passing, this could get ugly.
Prediction: Broncos get a scare but hold on, 83-81 Santa Clara. Darlan debuts with 19 points and 7 boards.
Should be a good one. Hopefully Darlan can really step it up tonight on the defensive end and cause all sorts of problems with his enormous wingspan.
I was impressed with Gavalyugov’s ability to (as Passarelli put it) dribble in tight spaces. Can he hold up defensively against quick guards? We will learn a lot tonight.
Even without Bukky, the Broncos should have plenty of rim protection on drives with Graves, Darlan, and Chukwudebelu. My concern going forward would be the ability to hold position on the block defensively without fouling.
The Cowboys athleticism and generally aggressive D will be a good test for this Bronco squad to see if we cam hold up to defensive pressure and not turn the ball over.
With the Broncos thin at the 4 and 5 spots, we are fortunate the Cowboys aren’t huge in the post starting a couple of 6-7/6-8 guys. But again, I expect them to be athletic and aggressive and crash boards. All Broncos will have to block out and put bodies on them. Graves and Chuk will have to play physical without getting in to foul trouble….easier said than done.
And ‘Bob’s point above regarding Gavalyugov is spot on. He looks more than capable at the offensive end, good perimeter shooter, good ballhandler who probes the D with a variety of moves. But defensively can he stay in front of quicker D1 guards???
Last season, the Broncos posted an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of .56 — a solid mark that reflects good scoring ability across all three levels. They also rebounded well, which helped sustain offensive possessions.
However, that efficiency came despite a low free throw rate. The Broncos were around .20, while many of their competitive peers were closer to .30. That gap speaks to a lack of pressure on opposing defenses and limited trips to the line.
In Game 1 of this season, the Broncos went just 3-for-7 from the stripe — a continuation of that trend. Seven total attempts is about what you’d expect from one high-usage player alone, and the percentage itself wasn’t great either.
If this team can consistently attack the rim, draw contact, and take better care of the ball, it’ll pay off quickly — both in non-conference matchups and once league play begins. Getting to the cup and converting at the line could be the difference between being solid and being a contender.
Appreciate the preview Patty, thank you! According to McNeese St preview of tonight’s game, College Insider Mid Major Top 25 poll has SCU #16 and McNeese St #20.
The early season injuries are concerning and hopefully won’t mirror the 49ers season.
‘Kev- to further support your point re: FT’s…..the Broncos were ranked 314th in FT attempt rate on Torvik last season.
Hopefully that stat improves to at least middle of the pack. Getting to the FT line at a high rate is a hallmark of most great teams. Of course you want to make them at a high rate as well….but you have to get there first.
Good workmanlike win. The recipe for this win was simple. Dominate them on the boards and the Broncos did just that. It definitely seems like this team has more guys that have a “nose for the ball” than recent Bronco teams. Some turnovers to clean up but can worry about that another day. This was a must win if you want to even dream about an at-large.
I can’t remember a game where I thought the Broncos were the tougher team. More talented, sure. Better coached, sure. But this feels like a tougher squad all around than any I can remember, and that’s pretty cool. That will travel.
With a sample size of 1 game, Santa Clara is currently the top offensive rebounding team in the country.
I agree that there were too many turnovers. Especially dumb throw away passes to force fast breaks. I’m a bit more forgiving because of how hard McNeese was trying to force TOs–it was a clear part of their game plan. But there were at least enough errant passes to get the Broncos under 10 total TOs which would be a very respectable number against such an aggressive and chaotic opponent.
The Broncos owned the glass, played good defense, and after a brief slow start, the offense clicked the rest of the game. I believe SCU got more offensive rebounds than McNeese got on defense, which is saying something— the shooting team almost never out rebounds the defense.
Also sweet seeing the backcourt pressure pay dividends; can’t remember anything like that last season.
First time seeing Graves and was impressed at his rebounding and all-around game, Hammond did a lot of nice work as well, and the guard who transferred from the Big East looks like a keeper.
‘Bob’s ‘workmanlike win’ captures it. And also agree on the general toughness of the squad.
I harped on this last year….our starting frontcourt consisted of Bal, O’Neil and Tilly, all finesse players who didn’t love contact. Despite our overall team rebounding being decent last year we still got bullied too often especially in critical games where it really mattered vs. SMC and GU, even vs. Pepp in the 1st round tourney loss. O’Neil with his length and solid athleticism still put up respectable rebounding #’s but Tilly and Bal were subpar rebounders relative to their positions and considering the length they possessed.
As noted, this group feels different. Ensminger has always been physical and is a carryover but his role and PT is now expanded so the benefit and effect of his play shows. And Graves is more physical, better post defender and rebounder than Tilly or Vrankic before him. And Hammond is not afraid to go in the paint whether that be rebounding or on offense with his drives and floater game. Cochran in limited minutes also seemed willing to mix it up and didn’t seem timid at all in his first D1 game as a true frosh.
But we can’t count on a +16 offensive rebounding margin game after game. Need to play cleaner games especially in areas you can control; FT’s at 60% needs to be better and as noted by others some of the TO’s need to be cleaned up. Yes some errant passes but Mahi, Sash and others also drove in to traffic and help D that was clearly in position and coughed up the ball….need to be smarter there.
All in all an encouraging start. A quiet game for Darlan but increased productivity from him in the future is likely. And sounds like Bukky’s ankle injury isn’t serious so hopefully he returns soon, maybe at Xavier. He would add a rim protector and unique skill set with his length and mobility. Provides a rim runner and pick and roll threat and weapon to target for our pt guards that we don’t otherwise have.
