Tip-off: Wednesday, 7pm at the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -22.5, 96% win probability
Torvik: Broncos #43, Utah Tech #273
(Broncos #18, UTech #251 when removing preseason weighting)
Trailblazers
There’s not a lot of narrative to be summoned out of this one. It’s a buy-game that the Broncos need to win and win by a lot. Utah Tech (née Dixie State) moved to D1 in 2019. They changed the name to Utah Tech in 2022, though “In what state is Dixie State located?” was made for bar trivia.
The Trailblazers have been led by the same coach since joining Division 1. They had one decent year in 2023 but otherwise, this has not been an inspiring program. So far, the Trailblazers have only two Division 1 wins, one of which is a double-OT victory against moribund Mississippi Valley State.
(Likely) Starters and Top Bench:
| Height + Position | Name | Torvik Adj. Efficiency | PPG | Other Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-5 Guard | Tanner Davis | 0.9 | 9.6 | 1.5 stls; 51.7% FTs |
| 6-4 Guard | Chance Trujillo | 1.8 | 12.1 | 4.5 rebs; 2.5 asts; 38.9% FG |
| 6-7 Wing | Jusaun Holt | -0.5 | 9.2 | 2.3 asts; 3.1 TOs |
| 6-8 Forward | Ethan Potter | 4.1 | 16.9 | 7.0 rebs; 1.2 blks |
| 6-8 Forward | Noah Bolanga | 0.2 | 11.2 | 5.5 rebs; 1.4 stls |
| 6-5 Wing | Britton Berrett | 0.0 | 3.5 | |
| 6-4 Guard | Madiba Owona | -0.7 | 8.1 | 33.3% FTs |
Utah Tech doesn’t have a lot going for it, especially on the offensive end where they struggle with inefficient guards and no front court size. Their 3P shooting is bottom quintile in the NCAA at just 27.8%. They get to the line very infrequently (let’s see if our Broncos change that!) and convert a remarkably low percentage when they do. Because they give up a lot of size down low, the Trailblazers very seldomly block shots or collect offensive boards.
Utah Tech gives some push on the defensive end, where their larger, longer guards prevent easy 3Ps (top-50 in the country at 3P defense) and can disrupt passing lanes. That still adds up to a below-average defense, but it’s a lot better than the other end of the court.
To say something nice: Ethan Potter is a pretty good player, all told. He’s efficient in the post, and somehow even better in the mid-range. But he doesn’t take 3Ps, so without help from his guard contingent, there’s only so far he can carry the scoring load for his squad.
It’s never a good idea to underestimate an opponent. But the Trailblazers will compete with Louisiana for the Broncos’ worst OOC opponent. Santa Clara has major advantages inside on both ends, and this should be a good opportunity for Graves’s rebounding and Bukky’s scoring to flourish. Assuming Ensminger is still recovering, someone will have to pick up Potter on defense, likely a mix of Graves and Darlan, I think.
On the other side, we started to see a little of Darlan’s offense manifest against Minnesota. Can he continue to improve on that end? And is this potentially where we see Normand finally ease onto the court so he can be a weapon for future matches against UNM and ASU? And Chukwudebelu has been impressive in recent outings. If the Broncos pull ahead, he will hopefully get extended run since, with no front court depth and a propensity to foul, the Broncos will need him.
Prediction: Start strong, keep from fouling, and cruise: 92-65 Santa Clara. Darlan’s offensive bag finally (finally) appears with a 19 point, 10 rebound double-double from the Once and Future Pro.
