Line: Broncos -6 and 72% win probability on Torvik; 75% win probability on ESPN, no line yet.
Louisiana Tech:
5-2 on the season coming off a blowout win over 0-7 Texas Southern. Losses to Alabama and NC State. No wins of note, all wins over Quad IV and non-D1 teams. Kenny Lofton Jr. is the story for LA Tech, at 6-7, 275 he is a load. Averages just under 18pts and 11 rebounds. He does a lot of damage on the offensive glass so Bediako and Braun are going to have their hands full blocking him out. In the post I expect we’ll double team Lofton at least some of the time and try to force him to pass. Bediako and Braun are going to have to work hard to keep him from getting deep position in the post. Beyond Lofton, LA Tech starts a small lineup, more or less a 4 guard lineup, none of them over 6-4. There’s an opportunity there for the Broncos as we have a definite height advantage in our frontcourt against their starting lineup.
For the Broncos, hope to see Jalen’s great play vs. Hawaii carry over to this game. Braun and Bediako need to stay out of foul trouble while trying to handle Lofton. Need Justice and Pipes to be effective from 3 pt land.
6 seems like a lot for this game, but La Tech has played teams either quite a bit better or a lot worse than them.
They start two non-shooters (basically) and then bring a few pretty good young offensive players off the bench. Presumably they aren’t as good on defense or you’d they would start. They also have a senior guard that has started more than 110 games, so obviously he knows what he’s doing.
Obviously, Lofton is the biggest challenge and handling him is the key to success.
Chunky Jr. uses his burly body well to get positioning and can finish on offense, but he’s a step and a half slow. Just get him to move a few steps on D and SCU is gonna have lots of dunks and layups. I’m sure he’ll get some points and boards, but it’s easy to get those points back on the other end with his sluggish movement.
LA Tech has wins over 5 garbage teams. So what. Broncos should take this one.
SCU 88 LA Tech 76
Heads up and reminder…Game Time: 2 PM…don’t want anyone to miss the early start.
Also, another note on LA Tech.: 6-6 forward Isaiah Crawford, a starter and one of their leading scores, has been out hurt the last 4 games. He was their leading scorer in league play last season. Can’t find any recent reports on him but I assume he’ll be out again today. LA Tech went to the smaller, 4 guard lineup after his injury. They do have some size off the bench with a couple of young forwards who have been getting decent playing time (6-7 David Green and 6-10 Kenny Hunter), will be interesting to see if those guys get more PT given our height advantage at most positions.
I deeply appreciate all the work and analysis @92bronc. And am very glad I saw your latest post because I absolutely would have missed the game but for your reminder about the start time.
My hope is for our more versatile forwards to keep Lofton spinning and maybe for Pipes to get back to form against a less talented guard corps. Would have been nice to have Josip in this one because I think he and Braun could really work together to expose Lofton’s defense. Ah well.
79-65 Broncos. Pipes hits 4 treys and finishes with 23 total.
Lofton Jr is a load, but appears to be a defensive liability- especially away from the hoop. I hope the Broncos go small and run him into the ground. Justice with some help from Braun can handle him defensively. If he scores, inbound quickly and have Pipes push up the court.
I like the thought LetsGo.
Would be good to double team Lofton some when he gets low post touches; the impact of such would be about the same whether it’s Bediako in the game as the primary defender or Braun/Justice.
Since Vrankic has been out, Justice has spent a lot of his minutes at the 4 in smaller lineups, in fact over 50% of minutes over the last 5 games, so I imagine we’ll see the same this afternoon. Also wouldn’t be surprised to see us play Tongue some and put him on Lofton to use some of Tongue’s fouls…Lofton is mediocre from the FT line.
He played 33 min vs. NC State, so I’m a little skeptical that he can be run into the ground that easily, though he often played fewer minutes earlier in the season.
Regardless, taking him away from the basket is a good idea, but they’ll almost certainly match him up on Bediako and Lofton will probably not want to come out and expose himself. In the screen game, maybe you can get the guards going downhill and put him at risk of fouling, but trying to overinvolve Bediako on the perimeter just means SCU is playing suboptimally and focusing too much on the big kid.
SCU could have a matchup advantage with Justice, and most games will have one with J Williams. NCSU’s 6-7ish swingman scored 31 against them. And La Tech has 2 non-threat shooters that have started most games. So hopefully they stay that way.
I know no one will call it but i don’t understand why that’s not a foul. Bediako had position and a fat kid just bumped him out of the way and caused an injury. And Bediako got the foul.
Frustrating and not sure what the defender is supposed to do about it.
I really like Tongue’s energy and athleticism, on display already with good hops to snag an offensive rebound then good quickness to run down and save the loose ball on the sideline.
Frontcourt minutes will be hard to come by once Vrankic returns but I’d really like us to find some minutes for Tongue, even if it’s just 4-6 minutes.
Crap…Bediako just went down with a foot injury…may have no choice but to play Tongue if Bediako can’t return.
If Pipes isn’t going to take that 3 or that drive he needs to get the hell off the floor. Unnecessary offensive foul on a big bc Pipes didn’t do what he was supposed to do earlier in the possession.
Totally lost player, right now. Would rather see Tomley and Stewart, to be honest.
Also idiots: these refs. Completely useless so far. No idea how that’s a foul on J Will but the kid on the other end is allow to kick the ball on his way to the ground and doesn’t get called for a block.
Play a garbage half, down by 1 at the end of it. Can only get better, right?
Look, it’s not the worst offense we’ve seen in these parts, but maybe lay off calling anybody–players, refs, coaches, other posters–idiots and the like. Plenty of ways to critique choices and performance without some broad pejorative (even a relatively soft one).