OOC Game 5: Idaho State

Game Preview/Recap
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Tip-off: Tuesday, 7pm in the Leavey Center
TV: ESPN+
Line: Torvik: Broncos -20, 94% win probability
Torvik: Broncos #71, Idaho State #277
(Broncos #17, Idaho State #184 when removing preseason weighting)

Idaho State
The Bengals of Idaho State are the first of two buy-game opponents to come to the Leavey Center in the hopes of the Broncos getting easy-ish victories before heading to Palm Desert. Coach Ryan Looney is in his sixth season and is replacing almost his entire team from last year after finishing 4th in the Big Sky. The Bengals have acquitted themselves fairly well on the young season, on a relative scale. They won at San Diego, giving Steve Lavin’s Toreros their first loss. They were beaten soundly across town at San Diego State but had minor successes like out-rebounding the Aztecs. And on Saturday, the Bengals were within five points of the Seattle Redhawks with fewer than 40 seconds left.

All this to say that Santa Clara should expect to win and win handily. But this Idaho State is closer to a top 150 team than they are to a sub-300 team. So the Broncos need to show up tomorrow night.

(Likely) Starters and Top Bench:

Height + Position Name Torvik Adj. Efficiency PPG Other Stats
5-11 Guard Gus Etchison 1.6 6.8 33.3% from 3P; 85.7% FT
6-4 Guard Martin Kheil 5.7* 7.5 2.5 asts
6-7 Wing Connor Hollenbeck 4.3 16.0 6.5 rebs, 38.5% from 3P
6-8 Forward Caleb Van de Griend 4.4 15.5 7.3 rebs
6-11 Center Evan Otten 1.0 3.5 2.8 rebs
6-6 Wing Lachlan Brewer -1.6 4.8 20% from 3P
6-7 Forward Cheikh Sow -1.2 4.0 2.8 rebs; 1.8 stls

*Martin Kheil has only played in 2 games and had a huge game against Seattle, so his efficiency numbers are likely skewed positive.

Idaho State, like Nevada (and Santa Clara for that matter), has an offense that is buoyed by offensive rebounding. They are #22 so far this season in offensive rebounding percentage. They were +10 in O-Boards against Seattle, +4 against SDSU, and +1 against USD. While the Bengals are not a spectacular shooting team, they are good enough. And with the extra looks, they have been competitive with WCC squads USD and Seattle. And watch out for Martin Kheil who is 5-7 from behind the arc in the last two games. If he’s a sophomore revelation for Idaho State, he may cause the Broncos headaches.

With respect to Cal Poly-Humboldt, this is the first “lesser” opponent the Broncos will face where they should be able to cruise but could quite easily sweat this one out if they ease up. As stated above, this Idaho State team is not good exactly, but they ain’t Mississippi Valley State either. If you still get nightmares about North Dakota State, wait until the Broncos are up 25+ to turn this one off.

Prediction: Broncos stay focused and break 100, 102-69 Santa Clara. Darlan has a breakout finally with 21 and 9 boards.

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some impromptu news for this one:

got called up as fill in analyst for the ESPN+ broadcast for this one. It’ll be myself and Passarelli for this game, exciting times!

That’s not the big news I have, that comes next week :saluting_face:

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Hard not have us #3 and the Dons #4 at this point, no?

Go WCC… last ride for Gonzaga, Saint Marys and the 7 Dwarves, plus our newcomers.

I will be extremely intrigued to see what happens to Gonzaga a few years down the road. Prayers for Coach Few who lost his mother recently.

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Broncos should cruise…..88-67.

This is a good opportunity for a few more minutes for Darlan, Cochran and Chuk.

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Betting line is currently sitting at SCU -17.5, O/U 145.5

Torvik at -20 suggests a bet is in order. But that is a big number, especially in junk time. We saw Nevada significantly trim a lead after we seemed to let of the gas and get sloppy.

I see Nevada is playing UC Davis tonight. Nevada at -12.5. Davis seems to be a decent team this year. Nevada is the home team. I’ll keep an eye on that game to see if the Wolf Pack bounce back. As always, we want to root for teams we’ve already played (Gonzaga and SMC excluded :face_vomiting: ).

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Santa Clara is going to have a 3 point frenzy tonight I can feel it. I predicted first 90 point game on Saturday and I’m feeling 100 tonight. I’m gonna go 105-68. I think Mahi is gonna have a game.

On a side note but I think this is the perfect game to get the ball to Darlan and Sash more to see what they can do. Obviously having the freshmen see the ball will be good for development but we need serious production from our transfers once we start hitting Quad 1 and 2 games.

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It’s a good prediction. Idaho State is one of the worst teams in the country so far at defending the perimeter.

I just hope that Santa Clara works for the best and most efficient shot. That may be the three tonight in a lot of instances–I’m with you in thinking they may crack 100–but it won’t be every night. The worst outcome of buy games is forsaking strategy because you can win the game by force of talent alone.

After seeing Gonzaga wax a lesser D1 team by 70 points and play 40 min of defense, I’m going to hold this SCU team to Hammond’s promise of not letting up.

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I watched some of GU last night - they absolutely crushed SUU.

I’m not as conversant (i) on any of this as I used to be and (ii) on NET/KenPom/Torvik as I once was on RPI, but is it true generally that, with respect to these sub-200 teams (ISU, Louisiana, Utah Tech) on our home floor, one must actually beat them by a significant margin to maintain or improve your perception in the eyes of the computer rankings?

I also note that SCU is at 68 in KenPom.

These two games this week, and Utah Tech on Dec. 3 are the only remaining true home games before Pepperdine on Friday, Jan. 2nd. I know the preference for neutral site games is also derived from the computer rankings. Plus, ticket sales, to my eye, are really slow despite the start and success over the last four seasons…

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The number is dropping hard. SCU -15.5, O/U 143.5

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Call me old fashioned, but rather than trying to get more shots or minutes for this guy or that guy, just focus on playing well as a team and beating the crap out of the opponent.

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Thankful that Caruso doesn’t do the ESPN+ games… good player, nice kid, but a commentator he is not. He has got slightly better, but call in the professionals for the bigger tv market games.

Now if we can just get some cameras closer to the action. 90% of the time we have the feed from the camera way atop the bleachers above the rough riders, and honestly the video feed looks like a high school job. The cameras on the baselines under the basket are good, but they are only effective for very select interior plays. The school should do way better with the video feed. A very inexpensive endevour that would be well worth the added expense.

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Screenshot 2025-11-18 at 11.52.24 AM
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Looks like we are ranked #3 in the nation in % of shots blocked.

And #5 in offensive rebound %. That’s with Bukky averaging just one-ish rebounds per game.

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The camera is pretty vexing. I watched a little bit of one of the Xavier games before the Broncos went to Cincinnati and came away thinking that the Xavier guys were huge and would present physical challenges for SCU. Turns out it’s just that the camera in Cintas isn’t at cruising altitude like the SCU camera is.

@buckets – One should sort data on Torvik with great caution this early in the season, but that #16 overall ranking (when eliminating preseason bias) is pretty incredible.

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Agree completely on wishing the camera was closer. Too bad our student section is not on the side facing the camera. I understand the need to show the team benches but it always looks so lethargic behind the scorer’s table with the sparse attendance in those sections. I am not sure there is an easy solution other than to keep winning and hope even those seats fill in. I do appreciate the cut away shots to the student section so maybe that is the best compromise for now.

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Tonight will test the character of this team imo. After their 4-0 start they’re feeling themselves a bit and getting a little buzz nationally so how they play tonight should be interesting. This should be a wire to wire victory that’s not close from the start.

Think Idaho State sticks around in the 1st half but SCU opens it up in the 2nd half for a 92 -64 victory.

BTW saw BK at the women’s game on Sunday and he had his arm in a sling. Hopefully it’s just precautionary and nothing serious. Doctor & trainers were working on his shoulder after he left the Nevada game

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As disturbing as this injury sounds (along with all of the other early injuries), it’s comforting to know that this team has exceptional depth. There are plenty of other “mid-majors” that rely on just one or two players for the bulk of their success. We seem to have broken through that ceiling. Kudos to the HS and the rest of the coaching staff for generating ever-improving recruiting classes.

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Ugly half. They’re gonna have to do a complete reset.

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This is sloppy. I’m disappointed.

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A lot of wide open 3s (which was the scouting report), but just not many going in.

Would like to see Sacha or Hammond be a little more in command.

Not too stressed but we should win this by 20+