Roster Next Year

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My way too early take on a depth chart below. Still lots of time to go before next season and still a chance we see another departure, decommit, etc.

Biggest question mark IMO is how the playing time shakes out at the 3 spot. Could be cascading impact on the 4 and 2 depending on whether or not O’Neil and/or Tongue play significant minutes at the 3.

1 / PG - Benjamin, Knapper, Ensminger, Hammond
2 / SG - Bal, Bryan, Ensminger, Hammond
3 / Wing - Bryan, O’Neil???, Tongue???, Ensminger, Akametu
4 / PF - Braun, Tongue, O’Neil, Tilly
5 / C - Tilly, Braun, Caffaro, McEldon

Lots of unknowns and few any locks in the above. All assumes everyone is healthy. About the only predictions I have much confidence in is Tilly starting at the 5 and maybe Benjamin starting at PG. Beyond that, much is up for grabs.

Bryan and Bal seem somewhat interchangeable at the 2/3. Bal is taller but has slight build; Bryan heavier and had solid rebounding #'s…for now calling the Bryan more of the wing/3 but could certainly swap.

If O’Neil (or Tongue) starts at the 3 then Bryan battles Bal for the starting spot at the 2.

Tongue or O’Neil could overtake Braun at the 4.

Will be interesting to see if Ensminger can play a true point guard role. I know he played there with his Euro club but D1 quickness/athleticism is higher than low/mid level Euro…at 6-9, the physics for Ensminger are a bit challenging; he may find ball handling and trying to penetrate a bit difficult if he has a very athletic, aggressive guard hounding him (think someone similar to SMC’s Logan Johnson). He may have play more of playmaker from the wing.

Much may (or should) come down to who is going to defend and rebound the best.

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87

Good analysis, 92.
My thought was O’Neil would play a bit more at the 4. I figured a starting lineup would be:

  1. Benjamin
  2. Bal
  3. Bryan
  4. O’Neil
  5. Tilly

I like our depth in the front court: Caffaro, Tongue, Braun plus Tilly & O’Neil.

Backcourt depth still has some question marks. Knapper is solid backing up point, but then it remains to be seen if Kosy can take steps forward, and then unknowns with Ensminger and Hammond.

If O’Neil is able to play some 3, that helps our guard/wing depth a bit.

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I was hoping for O’Neil at the four only because we have great length at the 2 & 3 and I would like more shooting on the floor (whatever that looks like).

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Depending on if Braun returns, we lost anywhere between 130-160 minutes of our 200 minutes from last year.

Last year the minutes were very top heavy with Podz (36 minutes), Justice (35), Stewart (32), and Braun(29.3). Early next season I anticipate we will see lots of guys playing in the 15 to 28 minute range.

Despite being Mount St. Mary’s leading score, Benjamin appears capable of setting his teammates up. His Assist rate of 28.6 ( % of teammate field goals a player assisted while the player is on the court) is pretty much in line with a KJ Feagin or Brandon Clark. If our coaches can free him up to shoot more 3s and less long 2s then he should see a big boost in his offensive rating. We might have to get a little creative on defense next year if teams try to go after our two smaller point guards , but with so much length elsewhere on the court for us there are definitely ways to work around this.

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91

Can we really say that Podz is 100% gone?

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Similar to Bob’s analysis, I was taking a look at what’s coming versus what’s going in terms of production. This is a pretty flawed way to examine it all (doesn’t account for pace, the different styles of play and usage for the players coming in, etc.) but gives at least some glimpse of how SCU has done filling the holes.

Santa Clara is losing, one way or another:

  • Stewart – 15.2 ppg / 2.4 rpg (40.3% from 3p)
  • Bediako – 6ppg / 4.9 rbg (1 blk per game)
  • Justice – 13.3 ppg / 4.1 rpg (37.8% from 3p)
  • Holt – 2.6 ppg / 2.1 rpg
  • Podz – 19.9 ppg / 8.8 rpg (43.8% from 3p)

That’s a total of 57 ppg and 22.3 rpg departing. That’s a pretty shocking 77% of the scoring and 58% of the rebounding gone overnight.

Santa Clara is filling the gap with:

  • O’Neil – 11.3 ppg / 6.6 rpg (1.7 blk per game and 39.3% from 3p)
  • Bryan – 10.5 ppg / 5.5 rpg (42.1% from 3p)
  • Benjamin – 16 ppg / 2.8 rpg (3.8 ast per game)
  • Bal – 2.5 ppg / 1 rpg (35.3% from 3p)
  • Caffaro – 2 ppg / 1.8 rpg (75% shooting from the floor)

That’s a total incoming of 42.3 ppg and 17.7 rpg. So still a ways short of full replacement. The Podz-shaped hole is pretty huge and hard to fill.

Then you anticipate some development for the key returners:

  • Knapper – 3.2 ppg (slightly higher 3.4 ppg and 1.6 asts for his last 10 games)
  • Tilly – 5 ppg / 2.7 rpg (but all the way up at 9.6 ppg/3.9 rpg over the last 10)
  • Tongue – 4.1 ppg / 2.7 rpg (but up to 5.9 ppg / 3.5 rpg over the last 10)
  • Braun – 7.7 ppg / 5.8 rpg (down slightly over the last 10 to 6.5/4)

Finally, work in a couple assumptions:

  1. Bal should be able to be a 10 and 5 guy, at least, given more minutes. He’s the Podz-in-waiting of this group with a ton of potential. Santa Clara doesn’t really need for him to be the next Podz as long as he can get 10 and 5–anything more would be house money. He’s only 19 but has two years of college ball. Hopefully, SCU is catching him right where his physical development and maturity finally rises to meet greater opportunity.
  2. O’Neil may have more scoring and rebounding in him at a faster pace of play. He was efficient in a slow system. If he can be almost as efficient at a faster pace, then his numbers should increase and help fill the gap.
  3. Tilly and Tongue continue their late season trajectories. More minutes alone should up their production, but if Tongue gets a 3-point stroke and Tilly expands his repertoire of low post moves, then the sky is the limit for both.
  4. There has to be a really good player (and maybe multiple) out of Akametu, Ensminger, McEldon, and Hammond. Akametu is so strong and athletic, but he missed an entire year of high school ball and it showed. More control, and he could be like Stewart with a little more body and aggression.

In sum, I think that a lot comes down to how Tongue, Tilly, and Bal can elevate their game. If all three can make leaps that match their potentials, then SCU will be just fine. The other big factor is gelling this many new players at once. Santa Clara will probably have more talent on the roster than ever, but will have to work hard to create a cohesive, efficient team, a task which bedevils even the best coaches with squads brimming with NBA-talent (see Calipari every other year or so).

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93

I think Christian Hammond will contribute in some capacity next season. Elite shooter.

Hammond was one heck of a high school quarterback. Led his team to the state title in the largest classification of Colorado in 2021. You can see some of his film here.

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I think so. We have no scholarships available at this time. I had heard rumblings he wasn’t expected to come back. Without having ANY inside knowledge, my read on the situation is this: I don’t think Bal would move to SCU unless he thought he was going to have a really great opportunity for significant usage. Podz being in the mix would lessen his opportunity.

I would LOVE to be wrong.

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96

I really hope the mess at LSU gets cleaned up fast so Carlos can enjoy continued success.

On the SCU front. I am actually quite excited with the line-up we have coming in. I think Cam and Tilly are going to continue to elevate. Cam has admitted he understands the rhythm better and his handles are even better now than when they were wrapping up the season. (So I know we will see more productivity from him.) Tilly is going to be a menace.

Kosy is going to surprise us all. The new guys coming in are bringing a variety of weapons - that teams facing us are going to have a deep roster of talent to contend with - vs 3 key guys. I think that is exciting since our opponents will never be able to fully prepare and just shut a guy down like San Fran and the Sam Houston team did with Podz. I do not like counting on one guy - and this year we won’t. We will have multiple guys.

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97

To put into context just how young Adama Bal was when he first arrived at Arizona, despite having played two years at Arizona he is still 4 months younger than Aidan Mahaney. Hopefully we can unlock the potential of 19 year old Bal.

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Femme, I hope you’re right about Kosy. He has so many obvious physical gifts. But he will need to really re-examine his mental approach to his time on the court and break some bad habits. Not impossible, but definitely not easy.

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I think he is like a Moody or Kuminga… just model after them and he could be amazing. Isiah Thomas said 300 shots each day is what players need to get to a high level of proficiency. I hope everyone on the team has a goal to work toward that. Nash was in the gym every night practicing those off-balance shots over and over again, and voila, no one was blocking him in the NBA. I also hope the players find time to really focus on academics and put it all together. Go Broncos.

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IMO, it’s more than mental and decision making for Kosy. Ball handling, shooting and especially footwork need work and basic fundamentals need polish. Got called for traveling a lot, switches his pivot foot, generally gets sloppy too often on offense.

No question there is a ton of potential there, I do like his energy, defense and rebounding. He excels in open court but in the half court offense, the items noted above need a lot of work.

The good thing with elite athletes like Kosy is sometimes, and I emphasize sometimes…not always, it comes together and starts to click and the potential is unlocked. Fingers crossed…

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101

Torvik is not a big fan of our roster next year once you remove Podz. Not completely surprised, I would assume they were very down on us coming into this year too.

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Those clowns and the WCC had us sixth seed for last year with loss of Pipe, Vrankich and Williams. And yet we bypassed any and all projections. It will happen again.

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https://twitter.com/verbalcommits/status/1650917209407889417?s=46&t=xEUmr_7uuY2KI9DKH3UukA

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Updated again.

1 Christian Hammond - Freshman
2 Luke McEldon Freshman
3 Jake Ensminger - RS Freshman
4 Christoph Tilly - Sophomore
5 Kosy Akametu - Sophomore
6 Brenton Knapper - RS Sophomore
7 Camaron Tongue - Junior
8 Tyeree Bryan - Junior
9. Adama Bal - Junior
10. Johnny O’Neil - Senior (with two years to play)
11. Jalen Benjamin - Grad Transfer
12 Francisco Caffaro - Grad Transfer
13. Available Scholarship ( or Podz but think he is set on staying in the NBA draft)

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105

Not a single player from our starting lineup is returning. This will be interesting.

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106

Bummed Parker is leaving but not surprised.

The ‘4’ is probably the best and most natural position for Parker, Tongue and O’Neil; Tilly is capable of playing there as well, though I prefer him at the 5.
Unless both Tongue and O’Neil spend the majority of their PT at the 3 then there would have been a major logjam for PT at the 4. And in turn if Tongue and O’Neil played most of the minutes at the 3 then that potentially limits PT for Bryan, Bal plus Ensminger and Akametu on the wing.
Depth is great but guys want to play and some are going to leave if they’re at risk of limited PT, particularly someone like Parker in his final season.

I wish Parker the best; will be interesting to see where he lands.
We will miss his above the rim play.

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