Hoping for a distraction from the crazy ending a few days ago, and I want to believe we will back next season.
I have no inside knowledge of players staying/leaving but I wanted to give my quick gut feeling of what next year looks like…
Starting 5:
Sash, Hammond, Normand, Ensminger, Bukky
Next 5:
Longcor, Cochran, Darlan, Tadjo, Francis
Roster recap - assuming we lose Graves, I think our depth is still incredibly strong. I’d say that our second 5 could win a few WCC games on their own.
Longcor and Normand will be the biggest question marks to make up for the scoring lost by Mahi/graves.
Off the court:
IF Randy Bennett leaves SMC, then this team is absolutely strong enough to win the WCC regular season and tourney.
Other Factors:
We saw Bryan and Tilly seek power 5 offers, so we are probably due to lose 1-2 players from the listed above… I could see Bukky draw interest, and Darlan perhaps, but I’m not sure the rest have the power 5 build that Bryan and Tilly had last year.
I think Sash, Hammond and Bukky fetch the biggest offers.
Jake should. Once he found his three point shot, he became a tremendous connector. I do wonder if he has the size to play the 4 at a power 4 school for 30 games.
I don’t expect Darlan back, but I feel it he worked with the staff for a year it could be a really strong play.
We’d likely going to lose 2/3 guys. I would love to be wrong, but that’s the reality of today’s landscape. What I would do to watch another season of Graves.
I forgot to mention that we’re probably due to have a few enter IN that aren’t even on anyone’s radar yet.
Sash was immense for us, we have to wait on Tadjo and Normand to see what kind of impact they’ll have (if they stay). But last year we had 3 top program guys transfer in. And now we have potentially a third NBA player in 5 years AND an ncaa tourney berth as part of our selling story.
Last year was widely (but not universally) predicted to be the peak of transfer portal/NIL madness for a while. This is because NIL collectives were largely winding down to make way for the House Settlement and revenue-sharing model where schools can compensate athletes directly. The collectives were a pure pay-to-play scheme, and they basically spent down all of the money in April through June last year before the July 1 start date for the House Settlement. So last year, there was a ton of money sloshing around for players, and the market is predicted to reset downward rather than continue going up. NIL still exists but is subject to the NCAA clearinghouse to make sure it’s actually approximating real value rather than a pay-to-play scheme, and there are only like a dozen college athletes in the country who can claim 6-7 figures in legitimate NIL value (5 will be quarterbacks for various SEC/B1G teams and one will be a frosh phenom for Duke). Now that could all fall apart with the next lawsuit. But the point is that Ohio State probably wouldn’t spend an alleged $1.3 million on the successor for Christoph Tilly this off-season.
On that last note, you have to wonder if some of the NIL mania calms down because it’s also harder to justify a lot of the investments made for this season. Kentucky’s $22 million roster shouldn’t have made it out of the first round and got beat down in the second. Texas Tech spent a boatload of money on its team, also to lose badly in the second round. AJ Dybantsa supposedly got $6 million from BYU without winning a single NCAA Tournament game. Michigan has a highly-successful mercenary army, but there seem to be way more counter-examples suggesting that millions of dollars on a single basketball player is a bad investment. Never try to call the top in stupidity, but are schools and donor pools really going to continue putting multiple millions into a single college basketball player after the 2025-26 returns were so mixed/poor?
This is maybe more of a WCC or SCU-specific narrative point, but to the extent that players actually want some preparation for pro ball and to maximize playing time and overall success, how many transfers “up” have really worked out? Tilly, of course, got a bag but didn’t majorly improve his statistical profile and exited the Tournament in the same round as SCU and with much less excitement. Texas Tech feels like a real cautionary tale: Tyeree Bryan and LeJuan Watts were both heroes at their respective WCC schools. Both saw their playing time and production dip. Bryan spent a lot of the season buried on the bench. Watts is basically despised by many of the Tech fans at this point who see him as a total bust against the reported investment. Then there are the earlier examples of Trey Wertz, Carlos Stewart, etc. Mahi, by contrast, stayed and had a primary role and clearly improved. Say nothing of Jalen, Podz, Bal, O’Neil, et al. The trend has been fairly consistent that it’s better to transfer into Santa Clara than transfer out and “up” if your goal is to prepare for a pro career and maximize role and development.
The transfer portal is only open for 2 weeks this year, and schools are not allowed to contact currently rostered players before their names are in the portal (lol–no I don’t believe anyone will comply, to be clear). I doubt that does much to affect the actual portal madness, but it will at least be briefer misery this year for us fans.
All of this is to say that SCU may be in a decent spot to survive the off-season. I’m sure there will be a bump or two. But if the market is actually down a bit, Santa Clara has the resources and the narrative to make a compelling pitch to its current and potential players.
I agree that we will lose at least 1, maybe 2 to the transfer portal, and I’d expect one impactful transfer coming in too, but in our case it would be really three as Normand and Tadjo didn’t see the floor this season.
Does anyone want to give odds or percentage of Allen Graves returning? Is even 20% returning overly optimistic?
Evaluators seem to love Graves’ efficiency profile—his assist-to-turnover ratio, three-point percentage, free throw shooting, and overall scoring efficiency all stand out. Add in his physical tools (size/length) and his ability to generate “stocks” (steals + blocks), and it’s easy to see the appeal.
That said, the concerns are pretty clear. A large portion of his scoring is assisted, which raises questions about his shot creation versus his ability to finish plays. On top of that, his foul rate is high, which has limited his minutes and overall impact.
What’s interesting is that he hasn’t shown up on many draft boards recently, especially in what’s considered a deeper class. That suggests teams may want to see a larger sample of production before fully buying in—though the NBA does tend to bet on tools and efficiency more than résumé alone.
From a development standpoint, another year with similar efficiency but increased usage and minutes could realistically push him into the top 20 conversation.
There’s also the personal side: he seemed very intentional about choosing SCU for development.
I’m pretty high on Graves returning to college next season. Now the real question is will he be back at SCU. Unless he balls out at the combine and leaps into the 1st round, he’ll be back. But if the consensus amongst scouts is we want to see against higher competition that could be a problem for the Broncos. I truly believe they will make a strong financial offer to Allen but Santa Clara cannot match a Power 4 team level of competition.
The focus will be on retaining Graves & Hammond. In that order.
Jake will be back. He loves SCU
Mahi doesn’t sound like he’s gonna try and pursue that extra year. He probably would if he could just play ball and didn’t have to go to school. He’d make more playing at SCU imo.
Darlan is interesting cuz I could see him staying or going, especially if Coach Ludwig leaves. Darlan may follow him. But I’ve heard that Darlan really likes learning and the academics at SCU so that could keep him around.
Sash strikes me as someone who will go wherever he’s offered the most money.
The coaches don’t expect Bukky to return but are gonna try to keep him. I’ve also heard that Francis really wasn’t happy with his role on the team and might be looking to leave.
It’s such a different feeling to be still talking Bronco basketball in late March. I have said before and I still hope that we can keep the core together. Hammond, Bucky, and Sash would be a good core along with Ensminger and Cochran. I also feel that we could bring in some more quality recruits based on our recent successes and upward trend.
As to Graves, I too feel that another year at SCU would be to his benefit, but then I’m biased. I did not think Podz was ready for the NBA either and I was wrong. I feel that if Graves can be a first round pick then he has to make the decision to go. If he is not a first round pick he should stay at SCU. I know portal money will be there but I hope SCU can put together enough NIL $$ to keep our guys at SCU. Clearly Sendek has proven he can get guys from SCU to the NBA so no need to leave.
Keep the core, keep the coaches, let’s be able to enjoy a few good years of SCU basketball.
FYI: I did give some $$ to the Bronco Bench and when I was donating was told the mens basketball program was already covered and so my $$ went to the general sports fund. I do think SCU may need to be sure that they have enough $$ in mens basketball to build upon our success. I encourage everyone who can to support the cause in whatever way you can. GO BRONCOS!!!
I thought Bukky’s on court body language late in the year, and especially in Vegas, was indicative of him not coming back. It might just be his quiet personality, but something seemed missing. I won’t be surprised if he goes into the portal.
Aren’t we getting a pretty good 7+ footer next year? Maybe he’s worried Herb could give him a lot of time. I doubt that would happen but maybe that’s what he’s thinking.
I will forever be skeptical of true frosh bigs. A handful have had good games (Francis included) but I cannot think of one in recent years who has been truly starter-level good in their first year out of high school. Tilly was close, but no way could SCU have started Tilly at center from his first game.
Point being: do not let Bukky, Graves, and Francis all walk away in the same season. In my opinion, have a playable center is the most significant advantage in the current college landscape.
Please don’t misunderstand my comment here because I love watching Bukky show flashes of what he might become. But shouldn’t he be looking at a program that allows him to stay on the floor despite the fact that he is constantly in foul trouble? I think at SCU he is consistently offered the opportunity to show what he has learned from his previous misdeeds. The coaching staff has shown an amazing level of patience in nurturing his maturation as a D-1 player. He has come a long way. I think though, that there are plenty of coaches and programs that would sit him on the bench and forget about him if he persisted in the same old business. He’s come this far because Sendek gets him. The grass isn’t always greener…ask Carlos or Bryan.
I’m sure both Tilly and Bryan did fine with their entry into the portal with respect to NIL. However, I do wonder if Bryan, in particular, has any regret leaving SCU. He went from knocking down 35 at The Kennel to barely making a dent in the box score for Texas Tech .
Lucas’ info on Bukky does not sound promising. But if there’s any hope of keeping him I wonder if it will come down to whether Graves returns or not. With Tadjo hopefully return, there are only so many minutes to go around and Bukkey may worry about his minutes being watered down. I could see Tadjo reprising Cam’s role of an undersized (in height only) 5 role as he’s an inch taller than Cam, appears to jump well and is the heaviest guy on the roster.
Graves…..his late clutch 3 notwithstanding, I don’t think he did himself any favors vs. KU. Aside from that 3 was just an OK game. Yes, he displayed his usual toughness and savy, some solid rebounding, converted some buckets, made his FT’s, etc……but he also had his shot swatted by the 6-9 Garrison multiple times and struggled to get his shot off on other occasions. Garrison is not a lottery pick…he’s effectively KU 3rd string center (factoring in the injured Quaintance); Graves will face plenty like him but better in the NBA. IMO, Graves would be wise to return to SCU, collect a decent paycheck that’s likely bigger than being on a 2-way NBA contract and continue to work on this game and body. He’s far from chiseled, seems like he could continue to lean up (lose fat, gain muscle) and stay at a similar weight and thereby improve all his athletic metrics (speed, quickness, hops, strength) which can only help him in all manners on the court and better prepare him to actually make it in the NBA. Just my opinion.
I would pay attention to Lucas’ comment on Sash above. I’ll just leave it at that for now.
Darlan….I know many here are down him and clearly he wasn’t at all close to matching the preseason All-WCC hype. But keep in mind he didn’t arrive until ~Sept. and didn’t have an offseason in the program. An offseason in the weight room and working on his game could do wonders if he’s committed to doing so. He may never be a WCC 1st teamer but could still be a quality contributor. You can’t teach a 7-2 wingspan (or whatever his is) for a wing with solid 3pt shooting ability. Plus he’s a willing defender and rebounder and was able to alter shots with his length, get lots of deflections, etc.
Tyree was getting good minutes early in the season including starting some but his 3pt shooting was horrible which is a bit of head scratcher considering he was fairly consistent for the Broncos. He’s an above average but not shut down defender but he doesn’t do much else to help you in terms of ball handling, playmaking, rebounding, etc. to keep him on the floor. If you’re going to be a D and 3 guy you have to actually make the 3’s.
Tilly…..he made his $ but don’t think he helped his pro stock. His #’s were more or less flat and didn’t display any new layers to his game. His 3pt shooting regressed from already mediocre/poor at SCU. Assists were up a little but that’s about it. Rebounding and rim protection still subpar.
Here is a write-up on one of our incoming freshman, Eli Jolin. He has grown to 6 foot 7 with long arms. Not sure if they plan on him redshirting or if he will contribute right away. A little raw offensively but you can see the enormous potential. In just the highlight clips I have seen he has an unusual but effective offensive game that sort of reminds me of our Henry Caruso around the rim but plus 3 inches in height.
Santa Clara is the favorites to win the league. That’s the outlook, simple as that.
And what’s more, I think they would be the best even if Gonzaga and Bennett were coming back. I’m looking forward to seeing what SCU can get for the non-conference schedule.
It might be a one bid league but I think it’s SCU’s bid to lose!