Speculation on Next Year’s Squad

Recruiting News
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Since all is currently quiet on the basketball front until the NIT selection on Sunday, I thought it might be fun to speculate on next year’s team. And what is better as sports fans than arguments based on pure speculation, lol.

The Broncos are losing four players: Cam, Carlos, Johnny and Adama, and adding four new players. The staff wants to add 2-3 players in the transfer portal so that means players currently on the team will not be returning next season. The portal opens March 25th.

Personally I think the following players have a 100% chance of returning: Brendan Yarusso, Malachi Douyon, Jake, Allen Graves and Christian Hammond.

BK: I’ll put his chance of returning at 90%. He’ll be a senior next year, the staff want to add a PG from the portal, so is he content being a backup? Would he want to transfer somewhere that he could be a starter? There are a lot of schools in SoCal, where he is from, that his family could watch him play.

Tyree Bryan: I’ll put his chance of returning at 80%. He should be a focal point of the offense next season. He won’t have to worry about when he has the hot hand, Adama or Carlos jacking up shots. He’ll put up numbers next season which would help his potential professional career. Now he will be a senior, so does he want to go somewhere with a better chance of making the NCAA tournament? I’m sure the portal will have lots of competition at the wing position but his 3 point shooting makes him attractive to teams.

Bukky: Chance of returning 95%. The staff is still high on his potential and can a team ever have enough 7 footers?

Elijah: Chance of returning 90%. Would say his season was inconsistent this year. Had some highs and some lows. Wonder how much his toe injury had to do with his uneven season. Potential starter/6th man next season, and likely the main scoring option on the 2nd team. If he had a better season could’ve seen him putting his name in the portal but feel like he will be returning.

Tilly: This is the big one. I put his chance of returning at 70%. Offensively gifted 7 footers can command $$$ in the transfer portal. Sure he is soft and needs to play better defense, but would a major program overlook that for his offense? Being a senior could Tilly look for a payday from a team with a better chance for playing in the tournament? Losing him would be rough so I’d imagine the staff is recruiting him hard to stay.

Kosy: 0% chance of returning. I cannot imagine Kosy being on next year’s team. Could see the staff suggesting if he wants to play he should be looking elsewhere. Might be a student at SCU next year but he will not be on the team.

Luke: 5% chance of returning. He’s still enrolled as a student at SCU, that’s why I put it at 5% and not 0. His size might make the staff make an overture for his return. But I’m thinking he’ll transfer to a school closer to home and his family.

Staff: I can’t imagine the coaching staff all returning next season. Someone has to go. I’m putting my money on Coach Scott not returning.

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I’ll defer to your inside knowledge.

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Totally a legitimate thing for us to discuss. Just jumping in briefly as moderator to remind everyone that we are discussing young people-- though legal adults and now somewhat paid. Fine to speculate and even critique performance, just keep it generous and respectful toward anyone who has worn a Bronco uniform.

With that, I agree with you, @LucasLandon especially on Tilly. Herb has done a good job keeping players, especially the best players, over the past 3-4 years. He let a few good ones get away early–Feagin the most frustrating with Eaddy and Wertz up there, maybe Caruso going pro. I hope that we can keep Tilly as I see him being the most attractive target for other schools.

I have no inside knowledge on coaching staff issues. I was under the impression that Scott G was the next guy up for a head coaching gig and that he got a look by Fresno State when they hired recently. I took that as meaning that he is key to the coaching staff and especially the offense, but is that not your impression?

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I would hate to see BK go. I like the way the team plays and the way things work out when he is running the point. We need to keep him and I think losing him would be a big loss.

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Agreed that Herb & Co. have been good at retaining talent. I think Covid had a lot to do with Wertz and Caruso not returning. I’ll never forget Feagin and Mat t Hauser sitting in the corner of Leavey laughing at their teammates as the Zags dominated the Broncos. They both quit on the team so for me it wasn’t much of a loss.

My impression is Coach Jason & Coach Madry are a bit more involved in the recruiting process. That’s why I said I thought Scott might not return. Don’t want to upset the 4 new guys that the coaches who recruited them are no longer there. But what do I know? The whole staff might return. Herb doesn’t strike me as a coach who fires his assistants

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I think you’re spot on with Kosy and Luke not returning. I’m interested in seeing Hammond next year as the PG, although I do agree that a seasoned PG will be targeted in the transfer portal. I thought Hammond played his best in last year’s WCC tournament.

As for Tilly, Bryan, Mahi, and BK, I’d be shocked if we retain or lose all 4. Maybe, we will be more active in the portal than expected. Who knows?

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I also tell myself, perhaps baselessly, that the experience at Santa Clara U. seems to do a good job of retaining players.

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It’s not baseless 'nashty…SCU as an institution has one of the top retention rates in the country, surely some the variables and factors that contribute to that fact (the ‘experience’) carry over to student athletes.

I have a little Bronco who’s a senior at SCU, I can’t think of a single kid in their circle of friends from fresh/soph year who have transferred out and all are on track to graduate in 4 years, some are graduating early. Small sample size but still.
And my experience and probably yours and others is that I knew very few who transferred out…in fact I knew more who transferred in from UC schools then transferred out all together. Some of the transfers out I recall were: 1) to Notre Dame, 2) a friend who played baseball and transferred to Stanford…can’t fault them for that and not a negative reflection on SCU.

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From what I’ve heard the Coaches prefer to use NIL $ to retain players. Exception would be a “can’t miss” transfer or frosh recruit. Worry there, is we pay and then they leave for bigger $$ after 1 year.
I hope Bryan stays. I felt he was our most clutch shooter with Carlos, much better than Bal whose scoring average was better, but a lot of points that were average builders rather than key in games. His end of game shots like in Vegas did not pan out. Bryan may have felt he earned some of those “go to” shots.

Knapper really came on strong in league and was great against Pepp. Worried he see’s more big guards coming in that Herb loves a La the Harden model and leaves for a starting role.

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My predictions are as follows:

I KNOW BK is returning. Tilly is the MOST LIKELY to return. Then Bryan.

I KNOW McEldon is OUT. Most likely Kosy is OUT. And I would wager both Bukky and Elijah are OUT.

But if this year proved anything. Consistency by retaining the entire team did not guarantee huge success. So losing players isn’t as detrimental as we would have thought.

I also know that with the departure of a few - will uplift the team for next year. Too many of those who thought themselves chiefs vs being Indians. So I’m saying this is a good outlook for Santa Clara’s future.

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BK will be a Bronco next year.

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Femme…You mentioned Cam’s injury in a previous post. Would he be available if we’re selected to the NIT??

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Yes. The good news is it’s a trauma to the elbow he’s incurred over years with some scar tissue. It was flaring up - but therapy and surgery later - he will be fine. The great news is he’s not damaging it any further by using it - so he will just adjust.

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I, for one, will keep an eye on his post-SCU career. Cam’s got grit.

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Well, I am with you on that one!

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Lots of random thoughts on the future and next year’s roster.

To start, I would typically be of the mindset to try to retain most of your roster, build off the stronger players, train up the guys you have and pursue a few high level transfers to address critical needs/holes. But given the underperformance this season from a talented, deep and experienced squad one could argue that some significant roster changes/additions are necessary, not just to replace the talent that is graduating (Bal, Stewart, O’Neil, Tongue) but to change the dynamic, culture and personality of the team.

Reflecting on this year’s team, and I’ve expressed this multiple times in different ways, but despite what on paper appears to be very talented and deep squad there are flaws to this roster makeup:

  • Only one true pt guard on the roster and he wasn’t a starter
  • A lot of skilled but finesse players with slight builds and OK but not elite athleticism and who aren’t physical…our entire starting frontcourt of Tilly, O’Neil, Bal fits this description.
  • Aside from Cam, a lack of strong interior defenders and limited post offense.
  • Lots of guys who are OK defenders but not elite defenders.
  • In general we have a lot of incomplete players…a 7’ center who is highly skilled but doesn’t do the stuff you want/expect of 7footer (rebound, defend the post and rim), a starting point guard who isn’t a great passer with poor decision making and shot selection, and a skilled scoring wing who doesn’t do much of anything else (defend, rebound, etc.). And Mahi, who arguably was one of our most versatile and complete players was incredibly inconsistent with multiple 20+ pt games but also many games at 0-5 pts.
  • All of the above combined with the coaching decisions to employ very simple, vanilla Off and Def schemes 98% of the time leads to the inconsistent results we’ve seen.

Given the above, hopefully coaches have learned from all this and aren’t just focused on assembling a talented roster but are more focused on addressing holes in the roster and filling necessary roles. Hopefully that includes:

  • A physical and strong 4 or 5 who can rebound, defend the post and paint, ideally at 6-8 to 6-9 guys who can either back up Tilly or play along side him and guard opposing 4’s. Offense is secondary. With Tilly’s skill set you can play him like a 4 on offense but unless he suddenly becomes stronger and more physical, we need to be able to pair him with a strong/physical frontcourt player, especially against the better teams with size (SMC).
  • Even if BK returns, we need another true point guard and/true play maker with good court vision and creative passer who can operate well in pic/roll. If BK stays then ideally the new guy would be on the tallish side, 6-3+, so you can play both BK and him at the same time if you’d like, without having a small backcourt. Think someone like USF’s Marcus Williams.
  • Even Bryan stays, if Kosy and Mahi depart then we could use another high level athlete on the wing, 6-5+. Could be someone like Kosy who can defend and be a slasher and run the floor but with better offensive fundamentals.

I would prefer to see both Mahi and Bryan stay. Bryan has been one of our most consistent performers the past two seasons. Mahi’s inconsistency was/is a problem but maybe a year of development will change that. He has all the physical tools, athleticism, size, and a decent diverse skill set. His ceiling is higher than Bal’s IMO.

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Stupid question here. I graduated in 1982 when recruiting was about getting nor cal players, maybe some SoCal sleepers. ‘78 squad had Rambis , londale theus, Mark McNamara I believe. Recruiting now is a whole different ballgame. Where is the NIL $ coming from? Alumni? Businesses? Our endowment? I apologize if this is an ignorant question.

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Alumni and businesses. Others may have more specific answers on whom. But it can’t come from the endowment or the university at present because college athletes are all still required to be amateurs and not employees. Coaches are not supposed to even discuss NIL with athletes (because not supposed to be part of their enrollment decision) though I doubt there’s any regard given to that rule.

With the House v. NCAA settlement, money will start flowing through certain universities to the athletes, but it has yet to take definitive shape and unclear if the WCC schools will opt to follow that model.

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Thanks Patty Mac. Appreciate all you do on this forum. Go Broncos

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For those that are interested here’s the website for SCU’s NIL collective

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