If SCU can finish 12-4 in these last 16 games, plus go at least 1-1 in the WCC Tourney, we would end up 24-11. Probably not good enough for an at-large bid, but I’d think a solid NIT candidate.
What do you all think it would take to get into the Big Dance? Is the only chance to win the conference tourney? Or would 14-2, with at least one win each over SMC and Gonzaga, plus 1-1 in the tourney, get us an at-large?
Just spit-balling in advance of the huge two home games later this week.
I ran the numbers on Torvik a couple weeks ago, and it indicated that SCU would likely have to go 15-1 in conference (with only loss being to USF, SMC, or Zags) to barely skate in. But that was before the loss to Yale. I think it’s conference tourney or bust at this point. Remember that neither SMC nor Gonzaga is an analytics darling this year. USF is, but I expect that they are vastly overrated and are about to drop like a stone. So even sweeping Gonzaga isn’t enough, especially since the Zags will only lose ground in the metrics by losing to SCU. SCU has 0 Quad 1 opportunities at home as it stands.
Now if they’re undefeated and maybe beat the Zags again in Vegas in a semifinal…maybe.
I think 12-4 might be enough to sniff the NIT. The Broncos would probably get into the top 80 or so in the NET, maybe a hair higher. All things considered, I’d be pretty happy with three straight NIT bids, especially if some continuity could be maintained into next year.
Patty…I agree with you entirely, especially about the NIT. Effective this season, conference regular season champions are not given an automatic NIT bid if they fail to win their conference tournament.
It obviously impacts the lower tier conferences and opens up far more at large bids.
Should have mentioned that ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, and SEC will each be awarded two bids to those teams with the highest NET rankings not selected to NCAA Tournament.
Upon that, 20 at large bids will be awarded for a total of 32.
Pardon me Buckets…I agree with your post. Didn’t credit you initially. My bad
Speaking about the NIT…given that the NCAA acquired the NIT some years back, what is the point of having the NIT? I’d rather see a field of 96 (or 100, if folks still want to see 4 play-in games), with the top 32 getting a 1st-round bye. Let the bottom 64 sort out who is “deserving” to play on. It would also make the whole bubble/1st four out complaints largely moot.
No worries, Pete, I’m not here to get credit. Just some fun banter on a slow news Monday.
Given SMC’s down year, it seems to be our best year in a long time to secure that 2 seed in the WCC tournament (and the triple-bye that goes along with it).
Now that BYU is out of the conference, I’m honestly a little surprised that conference tourney is still off on Sunday. I remember that being an accommodation made to the Cougars to get them into the conference. Now that they are gone, I’m puzzled as to why the Sunday-off policy isn’t gone as well.
Need to win the conference tournament to get in. At large hopes were dashed a couple weeks ago. They really needed to win at least 3 more games out of conference for me to be optimistic.
Given that we started this year with an entirely new starting 5, winning 12 or 13 games before conference play was always going to be a high bar to clear.
Unless something changes, I think we end up 10-6 in conference. 1-5 against Gonzaga, SMC, USF and lay an egg somewhere on the road against the rest. Finish 4th on tiebreakers, win a game in the conference tournament to notch our 20th win, then cover the spread against Gonzaga and nervously wait and see if we get into the NIT again.
Only path is a WCC tourney title (and there’s some hope there as Gonzaga isn’t what they have been this season). I think the NIT is likely out of the question this season. Reason being USF and SMC are likely NIT teams (and there’s no way the committee would actually select 3 WCC teams for the NIT).
I just hope that the those who make decisions aren’t dillusional enough to pay for one of those fake post season tournaments. That’s just a sign of pure desperation and trying to pretend you’re something that you aren’t.
I’m just not convinced that USF is particularly good. The Dons BARELY beat Pacific last week (in overtime). I’ll be very interested to see how well the Dons fare vs. the Toreros on Thursday in SD.
I saw a bracket prediction that had the zags as a #12 seed . Few would be soooo mad . Would that lead to zags leaving for big 12?
I’d say the opposite - it should be a reminder to Few that he can have a “down” year and still make the Big Dance if Gonzaga stays in the WCC.
GU needs the Big12 more than the Big12 needs GU. Especially, since the B12 has now added some strong basketball schools in Houston and Arizona solidifying their reputation as the top basketball conference.
If the Big12 actually makes a formal offer to GU it’s unlikely to be all that lucrative for GU. Ask yourself…why would Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech and now Arizona and Houston agree to an equal share of basketball earnings with GU? That would be foolish of them. If an offer is made, it will likely require GU to accept less than their proportional share of basketball proceeds.
My opinion…any chance of an at-large NCAA bid was gone after the SJSU loss. An NIT bid will probably take 23 wins, 22 minimum.
While I agree w/ Bettererer that the NIT is unlikely to take 3 WCC teams, it’s definitely not a foregone conclusion that USF will make the NIT and even St. Mary’s isn’t a given though I expect they’ll make it.
It’s 2nd place or bust from my perspective, in order to get the triple bye, shorten the path and improve the probability of winning the WCC tourney. While the Broncos have been incredibly uneven and inconsistent and there are glaring problems and weaknesses in our play, the WCC is weaker than it’s been in 12-15 years IMO; what I saw from the WCC this past weekend only solidified that opinion.
Need to capitalize on the opportunity. With the portal, the future for both the Broncos and the WCC is uncertain…we have no idea what the league will look like next season nor do we have certainty that all or most of our core/key players will return next season.
I don’t think the Dons are particularly good either, but I do think they’re rather likely to get an NIT invite.
Who knows, maybe SCU finally snags 2nd in the WCC this year, but from what I’ve seen Zaga, SMC, USF will be 1,2,3
Port, Pepp, and UOP are all really, really, bad, and LMU and USD aren’t much better.
So, it seems you are saying that we should reasonably expect to finish at least 4th, at worst 6th and at best 2nd. I concur.
Call me crazy, but I actually think we match up well against the Gaels this year (personnel-wise). My big fear is Randy Bennett; he is the best coach in the WCC and can probably find all of the ways to exploit our weaknesses.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought a WCC tourney win was no longer a guarantee of an opportunity to attend the NCAA playoffs. So another team could win the tourney, but Gonzaga could potentially still enter the NCAA tourney. Santa Clara is def just battling for a shot at the NIT at this point. (Unless things go real wonky nationwide with other teams.) Didn’t Stanfords wins over UCLA and Arizona help us?
No, nothing has changed with the NCAA toureny. Every league is afforded one automatic NCAA tourney bid, generally their tourney winner (a league could theoretically chose to not have a league tourney and instead designate their regular season champion as their autobid…as the Ivy league used to do). If Santa Clara or anyone else wins the WCC tourney they’ll be in the NCAA tourney.
Maybe you’re thinking of the NIT change…regular season league winners were formerly guaranteed an NIT spot if they failed to make the NCAA tourney. No longer the case, just the dedicated spots to Power Conferences, remaining NIT slots are all at-large bids.
Thanks for clarifying. I was a little bummed thinking all HOPE was lost.