25-26 Bracketology

NCAA Tourney and Post-Season
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In a recent podcast Graves said he wasn’t recruited that hotly because he was sort of “chubby”. Coach Madry saw Athleticism and knew working on his body would help him blossom.

Sean Farnham when asked about his NBA potential vs staying said as a late round 1st or 2nd round pick the money isn’t great compared to what he would Get staying in school and flourishing on a team that will max and showcase him . He said the move to power schools by budding payers has a low success rate for development. He said Graves should stay in school AT SANTA CLARA where he know he can develop more and that scouts know SCU makes ready Pros - Jalen, Pods and decent NIL money will be chump change to a 3year deal 1st round pick. Taking SCU to new heights only builds his value..

We’ll see.

ared

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182

I think there’s some hope that SCU can make him a good enough deal to stay, especially when combined with the recent history of “up” transfers out of SCU: Wertz, Stewart, Braun (kind of a unique case), Tilly, Bryan. All went to a HM and came out merely as good or worse as pro prospects than they were at SCU. Only Bediako flourished on his new team, but he was never NBA-bound anyways.

Staying at SCU and trusting the development is the better path. But it takes a lot of maturity to lash oneself to the mast like that.

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183

Today’s updated blow-by-blow from ESPN.

In the SCU Section, he references the “…debate whether the WCC could get three bids – which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons, but legitimately could (and arguably should) this year“

[area in which I previously had my years mixed - BYU, SMC and GU all three danced in 2010 (the year before BYU came in to the WCC) and 2012. GU, SMC and USF in 2022.]

And, throwing it out there despite being out of his time range because it’s a long forgotten fluke - in 2008, GU, SMC and San Diego all danced, with San Diego upsetting GU in the WCC Tournament and then UConn in the first round. Talk about not capitalizing on momentum…

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184

That same interview Graves shares that what attracted to him to SCU was the culture and family aspect. Graves is faith based and married and I think stability matters to him. We don’t necessarily know what Tilly, Stewart, Bryan’s value system was. He has an older brother who played SEC basketball and I think unless he gets lottery money he stays. Based on his own value system I don’t think he transfers to a school that didn’t see the vision out of HS.

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185

@getnashty I think you may want to double check your 2019 and 2014 assertions.

186

Thanks, I’m losing it!

BYU, SMC and GU went in 2010 and 2012, which is I suppose is why he drew the line there.

187

Ugh. tOSU leapfrogged us.

They beat Northwestern earlier in the season, and that victory just moved from a Quad 2 to a Quad 1 win.

Which is strange because they just lost to Michigan last night…but moved up 4 slots in NET?

I guess it was a “quality” loss.

Northwestern was actually up 9 points at halftime!

188

@getnashty I believe that stat is actually correct, which surprised me as well. Based on my quick internet search, BYU’s inaugural WCC season of 2012 was the only time that both BYU and SMC made it (in addition to Gonzaga). Nearly every year it was just one but not the other:

2013: SMC

2014: BYU

2015: BYU

2016: Neither

2017: SMC
2018: Neither

2019: SMC

2020: Covid

2021: BYU

2022: SMC & USF

2023: SMC

189

ChatGPT led me astray, and my confirmatory review was lax!

The WCC core has been around a long time, and lots of teams have carried the torch, though none as consistently as the Zags the last 25 or so years.

Perhaps parity will re-energize some of the sleepier fanbases… but it seems a 3 bid WCC will be a long way off for a while.

So long as we take a lot of the bids, whether its one or two, I’ll be happy - but I do worry about what the media package looks like with out Gonzaga. The MW just re-upped and it looked pretty grim, and there’s rumblings that the new Pac-12 one isn’t all it was cracked up to be either.

Anyway, back to our regularly scheduled bracketology programing - here’s the first Bauer Bubble Watch:

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For those who want to scoreboard watch this weekend prior to our big game, here is the schedule of games for all teams that are on the bubble. The numbers in parentheses represent each team’s current seeding based on this morning’s ESPN bracketology. I cut it off at teams currently seeded #9 or below, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t root for Wisconsin (8) to lose to Michigan St (3) tonight.

Tonight (Friday)

6 PM Miami-Oh (11) vs Ohio

Saturday

9 AM TCU (1st four out) @ Oklahoma St (next 4 out). I figure we want Okla St to win.

9 AM Cal (next four out) @ BC

9:45 UCLA (10) @ Michigan (1)

10 AM Texas A&M (9) @ Vandy (4)

11 AM VA-Tech (1st four out) vs FSU

11 AM SMU (9) @ Syracuse

12:30 Georgia (10) @ Oklahoma

1 PM Miami-FL (10) @ NC State (7)

3 PM VCU (next four out) @ Richmond

3 PM UCF (10) vs West Virginia

5 PM Ohio St (1st four out) vs Virginia (5)

5:30 Texas (11) @ Missouri (11)

7 PM San Diego St (11) vs Nevada

7:30 SCU (11) vs Gonzaga (4)

7:30 SMC (9) @ Pacific [*see below*]

Sunday

10 AM Indiana (9) @ Illinois (2)

3 PM Seton Hall (next 4 out) @ Butler

Bubble teams that are idle this weekend are USC (11) and New Mexico (1st four out).

[Interesting note about St. Mary’s, if you’re still reading this long ass post. The status of our win over SMC as a Quad 1 win is hanging by a thread with SMC ranked #28 (home wins over top 30 teams, neutral over top 50, and road vs top 75 are considered Quad 1). So while a SMC loss at Pacific could help pave the way to a regular season league title and #1 seed in the WCC tourney, it would harm our overall resume in comparison to other bubble teams. Meanwhile, SMC is in a similar position with the status of their lone Quad 1 win (neutral site win over #50 VT) hanging by a thread.]

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191

Realistically, the only path to securing the 1 seed is a victory over Gonzaga AND another victory over SMC. And that 1 seed still wouldn’t guarantee an at-large bid. With all of this in mind, it seems we’d want SMC to defeat Pacific. If the Gaels only suffer one loss (to Gonzaga) the rest of the way, I’m sure they’ll stay in Q1 win territory for the Broncos.

At this stage, there are so many combinations, permutations, and interdependencies it makes my head spin. For now, I’ll focus on rooting for the Broncos first, and for all of the schools playing bubble teams second.

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192

@buckets The path that I see to the #1 seed is from the following three games, all wins by the home team:

SMC loses one of its next 3 games @ Pacific, @ Seattle, or @ WSU

SCU beats Gonzaga

SMC beats Gonzaga

That results in Gonzaga and SMC each having 3 conference losses, and SCU wins the conference with 2 losses even if we lose at SMC. (assuming we don’t slip up @ USF or vs Ore St).

If we lose to Gonzaga tomorrow, then I think it’s better for us if SMC beats those 3 middle-of-the-pack teams, because then we’ll REALLY need to beat the Gaels and it REALLY needs to be a quality win. But if we beat Gonzaga tomorrow, then I think we’ll have all the quality wins we need and we will be better served by winning the conference and letting the Zags & Gaels beat each other up in the WCC semis.

I agree that it’s all very head-spinning.

193

I’m well aware of the scenario you outlined, I just think it’s terribly unlikely.

I’ve watched many SMC games vs. WCC opponents this season. They just grind teams down in a way that none of the Gaels’ next three opponents can handle (in my humble and amateur opinion).

The most likely scenario is the top three beat all of the non-top three. Unless that changes, the Broncos need to beat both Gonzaga and SMC to secure that #1 seed.

The #2 seed isn’t a horrible place to land either. Like the 1 seed, it enjoys the benefit of the quadruple bye, sliding straight into the conference semi-finals. The difference for the Broncos, though, would be having to play either Gonzaga or SMC to get into the championship final game. I’d much rather have the luxury of playing the 4 seed in the semis.

I have to say – it’s nice to actually be able to say SCU controls its own destiny. Win out the rest of the regular season and lock the 1 seed, probably earning at least an at-large bid in the process.

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194

Watching SLU play LUC right now.

Hard to stomach that we lost to these two teams.

195

who do we root for?? SLU or Loyola?

196

SLU. A victory by LUC hurts us I think.

EDIT TO ADD: According to Torvik, we should root for LUC.

Not sure it matters. LUC is awful. Billikens are going to smash them.

197

I’ve tried rooting for LUC because we’d like them to win, and it’s tough to watch…

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198

That was a beatdown. We lost to that?

199

That doesn’t make sense to me that a LUC win would be better for SCU. LUC is locked in as a bad Quad 4 loss for us no matter what, but a bad loss by SLU would take the shine off of a very respectable loss. It’s a moot point now anyway.

Sidenote: Why did we play that LUC game in front of 500 people in Santa Cruz instead of at Leavey?

200

The LUC and North Texas (which the Broncos barely won) games were played in Santa Cruz so that the games would be considered neutral site games. Talk about backfiring!

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