25-26 Bracketology

NCAA Tourney and Post-Season
221

Agree w/ your take ‘Nashty.

Adding to the ‘get what you deserve’ angle…..we’ve focused on the bad lass to Loyola-Chicago that is a blemish on our resume but also worth mentioning the loss to ASU after being up 17pts at halftime….just as inexcusable as the LUC loss IMO. Flip those two and we’re 24-4 right now with no bad losses, 7-0 vs. Quad II and no losses outside of Quad 1. And I suspect our NET would be in the 25-30 range ahead of nearly all the bubble teams (Miami-FL, SMU, Texas, TCU, etc.) instead of the current #42.

Of course making the buzzer beater vs. SLU would have also been nice and beefed up the resume but not sure that would be critical if we had secured the ASU and LUC wins.

2 Likes
222

How do they determine which cities will host the 6 vs 11 games? I had perhaps mistakenly assumed it was pre-determined but now I’m noticing some variation. For example:

Lunardi’s ESPN bracket has the 6 vs 11 games happening in Tampa, Buffalo, Philly, and Greenville.

Rocco Miller’s and On3’s both have those games in Tampa, OKC, Portland, and San Diego.

HoopsHQ has them in Tampa, Tampa, Buffalo, and Portland.

I’m obviously partial to San Diego, where I live. Are there any particular circumstances that would lead to us being placed in San Diego or Portland instead of the ones on the east coast?

223

Really more based around the top 4 seeds in each region. Gonzaga will likely he in Portland whether they are 2,3,4. So, it just depends on what seed they are. Obviously we won’t be in that quadrant.

All determined Selection Sunday

224

Joe Lunardi’s bracket was updated this morning and he has our Broncos as Last Four In.

In Order:

UCLA

Santa Clara

TCU

San Diego St.

SCU/TCU winner would play UNC in Tampa as part of the East Regional.

225

I agree we need to go 4-1 down the stretch so beating SMC at Moraga and at least a WCC tournament semifinal win. That I would think would lock up an at large bid. Anything less and we are really rolling the dice.

1 Like
226

Lunardi is by far the sexiest of the bracketologists, but i have to remind myself he was ranked 125/160 last year! Ha.

FWIW, the guy who was ranked No. 1 has us like 3/4 spots out.

227

There are a ton of games tonight that potentially impact SCU, and with the missed opportunity vs the Zags last weekend we’ll need all the help we can get. Here’s a list of games over the next 3 days, with the numbers in parentheses based on Lunardi’s ESPN bracket that was released this morning:

Tuesday 2/17

4 PM SMU (10) vs Louisville (5)

4 PM Miami-OH (11) @ UMASS [As nice a story as they are, I think we want Miami-OH to lose at least one regular season game, so that a 2nd loss in the MAC tourney won’t result in the winner stealing a 2nd bid for that conference.]

4 PM TCU (11) @ UCF (10) [Tough call here, as the winner probably leaps ahead of us and the loser falls behind us. I think we root for UCF to win here and lose some other games later, so that we can finish ahead of both teams.]

5 PM VCU (next 4 out) vs GW

5 PM VT (next 4 out) @ Miami-FL (9) [The Canes have had enough good wins recently that I think the ship has sailed on us passing them, so might as well root for them to keep VT below us.]

5:30 UCLA (11) @ Michigan St (4)

5:30 Ohio St (1st four out) vs Wisconsin (7)
6 PM New Mexico (1st four out) vs Air Force

6 PM Georgia (10) @ Kentucky (6)

6 PM Texas (9) vs LSU

7 PM San Diego St (11) vs Grand Canyon

Wed 2/18

4 PM Texas A&M (10) vs Ole Miss

5 PM Seton Hall (next 4 out) vs Depaul

5:30 W. Virginia (next 4 out) vs Utah

6 PM Missouri (1st four out) vs Vandy (4)

6 PM St. Mary’s (9) @ Seattle U.

7 PM USC (11) vs Illinois (2)

Thurs 2/19

No games for any of the teams seeded #9 through “next 4 out”.

228

For what it’s worth, Jay Bilas has SCU 48 in his field of 68 today.

11 Likes
229

Xavier falling apart in the 2nd against ‘Nova.

Xavier is 97 in NET… I harbor this hope that they could win a game or two against a good Big East team and sneak up to 75, making it a Q1 win for the Broncos…

I have a good friend in SF who went there and he has abandoned all hope for XU this year. But compared to the WCC, they get a bunch of punches to try to get a good win, including today. I know it’s hard to move the needle the later we get… but even a close loss might have them creep up. Indeed, they keep moving up little by little despite not winning.

We’ve bemoaned the LUC game given where LUC is NET-wise compared to a few years ago, but the Xavier game would have been a Q1 chance in how many of the last 20 years? Frustrating.

1 Like
230

@getnashty Is that a typo in your first sentence? Xavier seems to be right there with them, down by 3 with 7:33 left as I type this. Even if they don’t quite reach #75, anything they can do to make our decisive win over them look better would be great.

231

They’ve clawed back! They were leading and then let ‘Nova go on a big run and looked terrible for a few minutes.

Looks like they may have a chance!

232

Ah, got it! Go Musketeers and Billikens!

233

Xavier comes up just a bit short in OT. Bummer.

234

SLU goes down as well.

My Kings and Santa Clara fandom means if I root for you, you quickly lose!

1 Like
235

Thanks to the GCU Lopes for beating SD State on the road! Also, SJSU shocked Nevada at home. Bubble deflating losses!

1 Like
236

There is a site called Bracket Matrix that some of you are probably aware of and it currently lists 124 bracketologies and the dates most recently updated, most of which were yesterday morning 2/17. SDSU and TCU both lost last night.

Santa Clara……….…in 93 of 124

San Diego St………in 83 of 124

TCU………………………..in 81 of 124 (Last team In)

First team out:

Missouri……………….in 67 of 124

Note: Ohio St. was NOT seen favorably going in to yesterday as in just 25 bracketologies. That will change with their win over Wisconsin last night. SMC is in 122 of 124 btw……anyway, for what it’s worth. All in all, Broncos are perceived favorably for the moment.

2 Likes
237

A new bauer-tology today.

“Santa Clara is very much still in this thing; see the 6-5 Quad 1/2 record and metrics scattered across the high 30s and low 40s if you don’t believe me. The Broncos just need to pack a punch somewhere to show the committee that they belong. Lucky for them, they get one final opportunity to do just that: next Wednesday night in Moraga. Take care of business in San Francisco this Saturday, then finish off the season sweep of Saint Mary’s, and we may see a fresh face out of the WCC in March just yet.”

This non-Lunardi ESPN fellow writes about the bubble daily, but the SCU narrative is essentially the same. But if you want to read about the various machinations of the other bubble teams…

1 Like
238

Not that I blame them, but a lot of these writers overlook the fact that SCU and SMC are very likely going to meet for a 3rd time in the WCC Tourney semifinals. My working assumption for now is that SMC will not make the tourney if they go 0-5 vs SCU and Gonzaga, and that SCU will not make the tourney if we lose 2 straight to SMC to finish 1-4 vs those teams. Where it gets interesting for both teams is if SMC loses at home to the Zags, and splits the next 2 games vs SCU.

6 Likes
239

Best case scenario for the conference is likely that SCU sweeps SMC, including in Vegas, but SMC beats Gonzaga at home. That would put all three teams fairly reliably in, I think. I believe that a good win against GU would give SMC the marquee win they need, and sweeping SMC will secure a bid for Santa Clara with 3 Q1 victories.

Plus, Gonzaga and SCU would be tied for 1st in the conference (GU would still get the 1 seed) which would show that the conference has some life after the Zags, and it’s not just Gaels domination.

1 Like
240

Mizzou’s win over Vanderbilt should springboard them several spots in NET. Also gives the Tigers a 4th Q1 win.