Bubble has had some good results last few days, but that was not one of them.
End of that game was crazy!
Fortunately it’s not our spot that Missouri will be taking. Barring a miraculous comeback by USC, 4 of the other 5 #11 seeds (per ESPN) lost yesterday & today. The only #11 seed to win was Miami-OH who will likely be an auto-bid anyway.
On the flip side, the #9 and #10 seeds went 7-0.
So we’ll almost certainly continue to be a #11 seed when the next ESPN bracket drops on Friday. [I realize that Lunardi’s ESPN bracket is just as much sausage as all the rest of them, it’s the one that I use for simplicity.]
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Today the committee did a trial selection for select reporters and a few tidbits I found interesting that were reported.
The Selection Committee really emphasized a team’s WAB ranking over their NET rating.
After much politicking from the SEC the Committee will take into consideration the losses by teams to Alabama when Charles Bediako played. But will not penalize Alabama for the wins they got when he played. Must be nice being the SEC
Oh great. So it’s not enough that the SEC screwed my favorite football team (Notre Dame), now they’re gonna mess with my favorite basketball team too.
[psst! Don’t tell anyone that we have a former G-League player too.]
Does anyone here know if there a particular reason why Alabama’s G-League player was a problem while ours is not?
Reasoning I have seen…He previously played in the NCAA for Alabama(2021-2023) before declaring for the draft and remaining in the draft. He went undrafted and signed a pro contract.
Darlan never remained in the draft when going through the draft process and never played in the NCAA before.
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Bottom line, as I understand it: Bediako played 2 years NCAA and 3 years pro.
Darlan only played 2 years G-league, and NCAA gave him 2 years of eligibility.
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That’s not good given we are more favorable on the NET.
According to this morning’s update from Joe Lunardi.
Last 4 In:
Santa Clara
Missouri
UCLA
USC
SCU vs UCLA in Dayton
Winner faces Kentucky in San Diego.
We need to pay close attention to the WAB metric too (Wins Above Bubble) that the Committee values as much, if not more so than NET. At last glance, SCU is 43rd (Feb 18th WAB).
On FanDuel the Broncos are currently -150 to make the Tournament
A subtle thing that I noticed in comparing Lunardi’s previous bracket to this one:
- In his last bracket, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall & West Virginia were the last 3 teams listed in his “Next 4 out”.
- On Tuesday, VT had a respectable loss at Miami-FL.
- On Wednesday, both Seton Hall and WV lost to Quad 3 teams (at home vs DePaul & Utah, respectively)
- Yet in this new bracket all 3 of these schools are in the exact same spots.
VT’s loss was respectable, but SH and WV not dropping after losses to Quad 3 teams is eyebrow raising. It can’t be because of increased emphasis on the WAB rankings, because SH and WV are #57 and #58 on WAB, and this bracket has them effectively ranked #53 and #54.
Perhaps the answer is that it was Lunardi’s wife’s birthday and he half-assed it to meet his deadline (we’ve all been there). But if we’re to take that at face value, then the takeaway is that there are just no other contenders waiting in the wings. Which could mean that the gap between the “last 4 in” and the “next 4 out” could be a pretty comfortable cushion.
With regards to Virginia Tech, if we were several spots ahead of them before they lost at Miami, then logic would dictate that we ought to remain ahead of them if we beat USF but lose at SMC (because losing at SMC is about the same as losing in Miami). That leaves only 5 teams currently “out” in Lunardi’s bracket that could take our spot after a hypothetical loss at SMC: TCU, SDSU, NM, VCU, and Cal. And even that assumes that the three “in” teams below us (Missouri, UCLA, and USC) all hold serve.
I’m almost positive that I’m overanalyzing this, but this makes me feel a tad more confident about our chances of getting in if we split the two games vs St. Mary’s and hold serve vs USF and Oregon St.
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I like your analysis. The other thing i wonder is that if Lunardi got an inside look at the “mock seeding.” which apparently we were last team in.
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One thing that may already be obvious to most is that the “bracketologists” have a mix of “if today were Selection Sunday” and projection methodologies. Most brackets done by individual humans are “if today were Selection Sunday” brackets because few folks want to look as deeply at analytics and predictions to project out the potential field 3ish weeks from now. But some do try to project out the bracket. The advanced analytics sites are looking at the anticipated field based on predicted results.
All that is to say that, SCU being in the last four in is pretty good with SCU’s current resume, assuming the bracket is just taking the teams as they are today. If the Broncos win at SMC and beat USF and OSU, they should have like a 80+% chance of getting in, I would think, and would be in the Last Four Byes category if not slightly above.
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I like the fact that most of these projections have us in the Dance, but I really don’t like the idea of going to Dayton.
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Here is your weekend list of bubble games. The numbers in parentheses represent the seedings from this morning’s Lunardi ESPN bracket, including all teams that are seeded #9 through “Next 4 out”.
Friday
4 PM VCU (first 4 out) @ St. Louis U. (8) - An SLU win here helps us on multiple fronts.
5 PM Indiana (9) @ Purdue (2) - At this point of the season it’s hard to imagine SCU passing Indiana unless we win out and beat Gonzaga.
5:30 Miami-OH (11) vs Bowling Green
Saturday
9 AM Virginia Tech (next 4 out) vs Wake Forest
12:30 Texas (9) @ Georgia (10) - Gotta root for Texas here, no way we’re passing both these teams.
1 PM Missouri (11) @ Arkansas (5)
1 PM SMU (9) vs BC
1 PM USC (11) vs Oregon
2 PM West Virginia (next 4 out) @ TCU (first 4 out) - I think we want TCU to lose here. As discussed in my post above, WV might be further out than it appears.
3 PM San Diego St (first 4 out) @ Colorado St
3 PM Seton Hall (next 4 out) vs Georgetown
3 PM Cal (next 4 out) vs Stanford
5 PM UCLA (11) vs Illinois (2) - A Bruin win here could be damaging to SCU’s chances of staying ahead of the “Last 4 In” group that plays in Dayton. They are hanging by a thread after losing back to back games by 20+, so a knockout blow here would be nice.
5 PM New Mexico (first 4 out) @ Fresno St - Maybe it’s the bias of SCU getting trounced by them, but I feel like New Mexico should be solidly in the field and are getting screwed by the computers.
5:30 Texas A&M (10) @ Oklahoma
5:30 Auburn (10) vs. Kentucky (6)
6 PM UCF (10) @ Utah
7 PM SCU (11) @ USF
7 PM SMC (9) @ WSU
Sunday
10 AM Ohio St (11) @ Michigan St (4)
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beggars can’t be choosers!
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For those of us begging to graduate from the Dayton “last 4 in” group, there is a trio of games starting at 5:30 and 6 PM on Saturday that are all very losable games for teams seeded just ahead of us (A&M, Auburn, and UCF), followed by an important losable road game of our own at 7 pm. Those 3.5 hours from 5:30 to 9:00 could go a long way towards getting us out ahead of the Dayton group.
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SLU roars back with a 55-33 second half to beat VCU
That’ll do
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USC with massive choke, blowing a 6 point lead in final minute at home vs 10-17 Oregon. Huge for SCU!
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UCLA at buzzer hurt.
The Tyus Edney reenactment was huge for UCLA’s chances, and bad for ours. On top of that, right after that Auburn and UCF won in final seconds too, and New Mexico had a huge comeback.
We seem to be in pretty good shape if we split the road & neutral games vs SMC, but those are games that could have helped us bypass the Dayton round.
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