I’ve got this sneaking suspicion that the committee will only take 2 wcc teams. A win in Moraga might be enough to grab that bid (assuming the 2 are even remotely close in NET at the end of the season)…. lots of games to go before that possbily plays out.
Keep winning and good things happen.
If we make the tournament, I’ll hold off on the bubble discussion until February.
Until then, it starts every year in November because it’s been over by March for basically every year of my Broncos fandom! 
Bettererer, despite what my heart was telling me, it was probably for the best that SMC lost. Had they won, the Broncos likely would’ve needed to beat both Gonzaga AND SMC in the upcoming games to avoid any tiebreakers (which SCU would end up on the wrong side) to secure 2nd place and earn the triple bye in the WCC tourney. Now, if Santa Clara beats SMC, and Gonzaga beats SMC again, and assuming all three “take care of business” against the rest of the league, SCU will lock in the 2nd seed. Additionally, earning the sweep against SMC puts us in a much better light for an at-large.
Just reviewed this morning’s NET rankings. SMC dropped two spots and is, for now, no longer a Q1 win. The Broncos moved up from #44 to #43.
Other notable movements in NET:
At this relatively late time in the season, it seems (1) the results of head-to-head games seem to have little effect on the NET rankings; and (2) there are clearly a bunch of interdependencies that can have an outsized impact on a team’s rankings.
The long and short of it: as we have all suspected, the Broncos need to just keep winning and hope there are some key losses amongst the teams around the same rankings. UCLA dropping behind SCU might be a significant move. Wouldn’t it be something if the Broncos could surpass New Mexico despite getting thumped at The Pit earlier this season?
I’m honestly not even thinking about the WCC tournament and our seeding. I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that we’ll probably have to beat GU/SMC back to back if we think the automatic bid is our only way in. Obviously we’re all aware that if we finish 2nd and get that extra bye, then that task gets a little easier.
The only way we get the 1 seed to avoid that is if we run the table and GU losses one more game. But if that happens, we probably won’t be as worried about our at large chances. And if it’s possible, that scenario feels so far away. Only 7 regular season games left, but it feels like an eternity. One game at a time. Beat Pacific and hope the boys continue to make us dream.
Well, my only point (which was implied, but probably required explanation) really is that, assuming we finish 2nd or 3rd, we’d be in line to play SMC in the semi-final. I’d much rather see SMC finishing as the 3rd seed and playing a quarterfinal game, and the Broncos getting to play SMC after the Gaels play the night before.
I was viewing bracketmatrix.com this morning which lists 101 brackets from a multitude of sources.
Broncos: In 23 of 101 (all 11 seeds)
Gaels: In 100 of 101 (9-11 seed range)
That must be a bit of a lagging indicator. I doubt many of those sources update their bracket forecasts within a day of games - and yesterday, there were a TON of meaningful matchups.
Probably worth waiting to check up on those on Monday or Tuesday.
Valid point…..I believe most of the more notable sites such as ESPN, CBS, and Fox update about twice a week at this stage of season and I believe daily, once conference tournaments begin.
I checked CBS’ bracketology yesterday and they had SMC as Frist 4 Out and no mention of the Broncos (they don’t have a 2nd 4 Out). So I guess CBS was the 1 of 101 that had the Gaels out.
With Wazzu’s dominant win and Pacific’s close loss, both are in Q2 territory for SCU. Santa Clara almost certainly has to win both to keep the dream alive. But winning both should actually advance the cause meaningfully rather than just be “staying afloat” wins. Piling up Q2 wins will matter in the end.
Only Seattle and OSU at home are left in “doesn’t move the needle” territory, though a convincing win over the Redhawks will likely count for something in the analytics if the Broncos can pull it off.
I haven’t gotten to listen yet, but I wanted to make sure that our podcast of record gets some love.
I present to you all this wonderful chart, showing our odds of making the NCAA tournament according to Torvik over the course of the season:
It now has the odds at 72%.
That includes both at-large and automatic qualify odds, and because I personally doubt we will win the WCC Tournament, I put us more like 50/50 or slightly worse still.
A singular vote in this week’s AP Poll.
Win the next four and be ranked in February for the first time since the February 16, 1970 AP Poll?
Who the heck ranked SCU?
If I remember correctly, votes in the past have not been kind to us. Might just be scar tissue on my part, remembering the bad and not the good. I need to turn my frown upside down and rid myself of the feeling that the other shoe will imminently drop.
Here’s our AP Poll History:
Even with your longer institutional memory, it’s been extremely rare that we appear in one. We have on a handful of occasion gotten some votes.
There’s a way to figure out who voted for us, but it’s beyond my skill level.
Found the scar tissue.
Courtesy of ChatGPT:
Here’s what the historical AP Top 25 poll data shows for the Santa Clara Broncos men’s basketball over roughly the last 35 years (i.e., since about 1991):
AP Poll Rankings (1991–Present)
According to Sports-Reference, Santa Clara has appeared in the Associated Press (AP) Poll a total of 23 weeks in program history (this includes a preseason ranking once, 2 final season rankings, and 23 total weeks ranked).
All of those AP Top 25 appearances occurred in the early-to-mid 1990s, with the last time the Broncos were actually ranked in the Top 25 being the 1995-96 season (they reached as high as No. 22).
Recent AP Poll Votes
Summary (Last ~35 Years)
Weeks Ranked in AP Top 25: 23 total (all from the early-to-mid 1990s, including the 1995-96 season).
Times Receiving Votes (but not ranked): At least once in 2025-26 (three votes in Nov. 2025).
When the Santa Clara Broncos were ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll during the 1995-96 season, the very next game on their schedule — after the poll reflecting that ranking — was a road game at Marquette, which they lost 78-49.
**Here’s how that sequence unfolded in context:
Santa Clara defeated Fresno State while ranked No. 22, boosting their record and earning that poll position.
The next game, following that week’s AP ranking, was against Marquette in Milwaukee — and Santa Clara fell 78-49 in that contest.**
So in their mid-1990s AP-ranked stretch, the Broncos’ immediate game after being ranked at No. 22 resulted in a loss on the road at Marquette.
So in the approximately past 35 years, Santa Clara’s no-25 rankings were confined chiefly to the mid-1990s (totaling 23 weekly appearances), and they have recently received votes (e.g., in late 2025) even though they haven’t re-entered the official Top 25 since the 1995-96 season.
A tiny bit of cold water just to reset on where SCU is–since I, too, am very excited that we get to even discuss bracketology in February.
SCU fell out of the field in the latest Bauertology, who gives this succinct rationale for why a few mid-major teams with better resumes than other schools are nevertheless being left out:
“Likewise, if your résumé metrics are south of 50 and you don’t make the cut, you’re probably short in some critical area somewhere. That’s the case for all three of my sub-50 at-large exclusions today, as George Mason (39.3), Oklahoma State (44.7), and Santa Clara (48.0) all lack a single Quad 1 victory between them.”
SCU is still not there for Lunardi and actually dropped a spot.
Five Star Bracketology’s Bubble Watch still has nice words to say about SCU, but doesn’t have Santa Clara in the field. I did take heart at this line which seems to speak exactly to our moment:
“We’re simply in a wait and see mode, that quickly could take a hit if they drop one they shouldn’t. A treacherous world to live in, but when you are trying to make the dance for the first time in 30 years you have to at least be relishing even being in this position.”
If you want to see where the Broncos are at relative to their main competition, here’s a side-by-side comparison of each of the 7 teams listed around SCU in the Bauertology page. You’ll notice that SCU is unique in two aspects: no Q1 wins (for now) and a Q4 loss. Gotta overcome the former because SCU is stuck with the latter.
Five Star’s write-up is good. We would have to go 6-1 over the rest of the regular season, with a win either vs GU (got my tickets yesterday) or @SMC.
And we’d have to follow that up with a WCC finals appearance.
Tons to ask of the universe. And we’d likely still be sweating it out in a ‘just barely in’ fashion, perhaps playing in Dayton.
I’m dancing until our clock strikes midnight, which might be in February rather than March with respect to an at-large.
Yeah, i basically think we just need to hold serve and then hope a Q1 win (@ SMC or home vs. GU) puts us into the field.
And of course, you probably need to be 3 or four teams into the field to survive bid stealing!
There was a graphic posted on the college basketball subreddit that indicated it was Percy Allen of the Seattle Time who gave us a vote.