Thanks!
I know they votes public or at least often posted, but I didn’t know how to go figure it out starting with the team rather than the voter in mind. I figured it’d be a West Coast but not Bay Area person…
The goodwill of several consecutive years of winning compounds upon itself - I hope it continues this week!
I’ve been following this rooting guide since you posted, @getnashty . It really has confirmed what we all suspected: a loss to any WCC team not named Gonzaga or St. Mary’s decimates SCU’s chances of making the tournament, while beating these teams really just helps the Broncos tread water and maintain its current odds of making the tourney.
One thing that puzzles me: in the upcoming Saturday games, somehow the Georgia @ LSU game shows a significant negative effect on SCU’s chances of making the tournament if Georgia wins (almost as much as a Broncos loss to Wazzu would). I’m struggling to understand why. There must be some interdependency I’m not seeing.
Or is it as simple as Georgia (36 NET) losing to LSU (57 NET) drops Georgia closer to SCU (44 NET), anticipating Georgia has a tough Feb schedule where they are likely to collect several more losses?
SIDE NOTE: The SEC has SEVEN teams in the top 30 NET rankings, and TEN in the top 40. Out of 16 teams in the conference, LSU is #11 in NET. Wow.
I wish I could help - it makes some truly baffling suggestions, including that we ought to root for San Diego to beat SMC.
I think we desperately need two Q1 wins, and the bird in hand is SMC given that we’ve already beaten them. We want them north of 30 in the NET to make that a Q1 win. The counterpoint, I suppose, being that we root for SMC to lose a few games and not take an at-large bid themselves, and beat them again in Moraga for a Q1 win… my non-computer brain thinks that is way less likely.
I think you are touching on another big theme this year - the big football power conferences are dominating the NET Rankings… If we drop a few games and get left home, fine - but if we do stay on the high-wire and get left home for some ACC team thats 8-10 in conference play, I’ll be very frustrated.
Lunardi has 3 bids for the Big East, 3 for the Mountain West and 2 for the WCC - everyone else besides the Big 4 (SEC/ACC/BIG/B12) is a one bid league. Conference tournaments may move that math.
Last year, the Big East had 5, the MWC 4 and the WCC 2 - every other non Big 4 league was 1 bid only. Since 2019, the A-10, American, Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley have sent multiple teams. The Mid-Major at-large seems to be a waning concept.
I am just going to sit back, relax and enjoy the most meaningful Bronco basketball in February in 30 years. If you click on a team on Torvik more in the 150+ range and ask for a Rooting Guide, it simply says “JUST WIN YOUR OWN GAMES” - I think Santa Clara’s is truly the same!
I think this is because Georgia is likely in the field right now and LSU is not. Per BT, Georgia has a 75% chance to make the NCAAT while LSU has just a 6% chance. But if LSU wins, then LSU’s odds of taking a low seed bubble spot increase significantly–something that threatens SCU.
A major part of the reason that SCU is on the bubble right now at all is that the top of the sport is so dominant, with an unusual number of teams sporting just one or two losses. That has cascaded down the “power conferences” where the top teams are hoarding wins, and teams like Ohio State are being iced out to the bubble where a squad like SCU can reasonably overtake them even with a paucity of Q1 wins.
In short, we want the teams solidly in the field to collect wins while the bubble and bubble-adjacent teams go on losing streaks. Georgia, in this case, is the former while LSU is the latter.
It’s a truly top heavy year - the Top 10 teams have 16 total losses, with Illinois and Michigan State accounting for 6 of those losses. If we dug in deeper, I think we’d see many of those losses among the truly elite teams are against one another. Illinois, for example, has only lost to Alabama, Nebraska and Tennessee - all solidly in the field.
As you’re saying, there aren’t that many Q1A wins out there this year, because the true upper class of College Hoops just isn’t losing at all.
On another note - I was talking to my dad the other day and he mentioned in the SLU game how Ensminger slipped late and got hurt after some questionable floor-squeegeeing - feels like full butterfly effect, but we didn’t realize what an opportunity that was at the time to get a world class win.
@PattyMac To be clear, I understood that logic already – I guess my question is more about the gargantuan impact of that game compared to so many other games on that day’s slate.
It’s too bad there is no ability for the committee to give preference to a program that has not been in the tourney since the 1990’s!
Torvik’s “root for” is just as confounding today as it was yesterday. Minnesota (84 NET) is beating Michigan State (11 NET). Yet, we are supposed to root for Minnesota? Given that we beat the Gophers, wouldn’t we want them to appear as strong as possible? I’m not second-guessng Torvik, I’m sure the math is sound, I’m just having a tough time reconciling my logic with his algorithm.
I’m glad to see Minnesota beating the Spartans.
Minnesota is a solid quad 2 win. It’s not getting any better. But they could theoretically steal a bid, so it’s better they lose.
I just don’t see how they can realistically steal an at-large bid. They would have to rattle off some very unlikely wins.
Selection committee members won’t just automatically default to the NET ranking. I’m sure they’ll look more closely at how well the teams SCU beat performed against quality opponents. In other words, Broncos beat a team (Minnesota) that beat MSU. That doesn’t fully get conveyed in a NET ranking or quadrant status.
Today’s NET (for games through 2/4) is out:
Gonzaga loss to Portland drops them from 5 to 9;
SMC inched up from 30 to 29 after they shellacked the Toreros;
SCU jumps 5 spots from 44 to 39 after beating the Tigers.
Other notables:
ASU jumps up to 73 from 80 after a solid win
EDIT TO ADD: Minnesota skyrockets from 84 to 72 with the big win over MSU
All positive stuff, except - Wazzu falls to 139, just out of Q2 status for now (cutoff being 135 for an away game).
I wonder if the Pilots could conceivably fall to a Q4 for the Zags if they fall apart down the stretch - easy to get distracted after a win like that. The revenge game in Spokane might get unholy, especially if Huff is back by then.
So, magically, as far as Torvik is concerned, the Georgia @ LSU game on Saturday no longer matters.
The game I have my eyes on for today is Ohio State at Maryland. A loss to Maryland would go a long way in keeping Ohio State out of the NCAA Tournament field.
Source: CBS Sports (Feb 5th)
We know these brackets are fluid on a daily basis, but found this one today with a smile on my face.
Our inclusion may have more to do with the fact that we lead the conference over the Zags by half a game.
Both SCU and SMC are IN as 11 seeds, but the Gaels are part of the “Last 4 In” playing in Dayton against Oklahoma St.
Our Broncos are the #11 seed in the East Region and their opponent is North Carolina.
Take away….. Let’s just enjoy today 
From Lunardi’s site: as I understand, this has not been updated to include last night’s games:
So basically, these are the teams (save our Broncos) we should hex.
Not to be the cold-water bearer for once, but some of these brackets will include the current leader in the conference standings with a presumption (however unlikely) that the #1 Seed will win the conference tournament… I don’t know for sure if that is happening here.
Santa Clara is now the leader in the WCC race. So this inclusion may not be totally on the merits of our at-large chances, which I think remain very bubbly.
And Buckets - everyone else on that list I would call a “good college basketball program.” Feels good to be in that neighborhood for the first time in a long time.
Correct. Lunardi’s bracketology is updated twice a week. Tuesdays and Fridays.
You’re probably aware of this, but Santa Clara will be in Lunardi’s field of 68 tomorrow as the WCC auto qualifier as a result of Broncos win and Zags loss last night. He mentioned such when discussing “bubble watch” games for tonight.
