25-26 Off-Season Countdown 2: Predit the OOC

Off-Season
1

For our second parlor game running up to the beginning of OOC play, try to predict the OOC. There are 13 total OOC games, including Cal Poly Humboldt. The D1 opponents are organized below by the Quadrant System using Torvik rankings (will be organized by NET when that comes out after 10 or so games) and then again by schedule and order.

Put in your predictions below. What’s the record overall? Which games are must-wins? Which are trap games that concern you?

Quad 1 Quad 2 Quad 3 Quad 4
Xavier St. Louis McNeese Humboldt State*
ASU Nevada Louisiana
(Minnesota) (Stanford) Utah Tech
Loyola Chicago Idaho State
North Texas
New Mexico
  • 11/4 Humboldt State
  • 11/7 McNeese State
  • 11/10 @ Xavier
  • 11/15 Nevada
  • 11/18 Idaho State
  • 11/21 Louisiana
  • 11/27 St. Louis (Acrisure Event – Palm Desert)
  • 11/28 Minnesota/Stanford (Acrisure Event – Palm Desert)
  • 12/3 Utah Tech
  • 12/6 @ New Mexico
  • 12/13 Arizona State (Las Vegas)
  • 12/17 North Texas (Santa Cruz)
  • 12/20 Loyola Chicago (Santa Cruz)

*Humboldt is non-D1 and doesn’t actually count for NET purposes or the Quad system.

2

My heart hopes they start WCC play at 8-4 or better but my mind after all the years of watching Broncos basketball I’ll say 7-5

Don’t see them winning at Xavier or at New Mexico. Playing in Vegas hasn’t been kind to the Sendek teams. Think they’ll drop one of the Santa Cruz games.

3

Even 8-4 would be disappointing. That would likely not be enough for a bid, given that we’ll likely have at least 4 losses in conference play. 7-5 seems highly pessimistic.

I’ll go 8-4, but hoping the team chemistry is good enough to do better.

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4

Unless I put it in incorrectly, there should be 13 games. So 8-5 would be a potential OOC outcome–the same as what the Broncos took last year.

It’s important to consider which losses the Broncos take. There’s a 9-4 against this schedule that I think puts SCU in fringe bubble territory with lots of work to do in conference–basically losing 4 Q2 games while winning the others and getting a Q1 victory at Xavier and a couple opponents moving up a bit (UNM to Q1 or Stanford to Q2 seeming most likely). But if they rack up good wins but also lose to Utah Tech, then they can be 10-3 and look even worse. Hell, the right 9-4 against this OOC slate is probably better than the worst 11-2 in terms of keeping postseason hopes alive.

I think 9-4 is about right. I’ll take the optimistic 10-3. Losses are to North Texas, New Mexico, and SLU all of which should be tough games for Santa Clara.

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5

In the quad breakdown you list all 13 but in the schedule you forgot the Fresno State game. So I’ll amend my picks to hopefully 9-4 or better but more likely 8-5

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Ah yes, I see that now, too. Thanks for pointing that out. I’m at 9-4.

7

You’re right. The Fresno State game isn’t on the schedule…I guess I made a mistake. That would mean that Humboldt State “counts.”

Which is right, I think, since the rule used to be that you could do up to two scrimmages/exhibitions. So with two scrimmages on the schedule, that first game against Humboldt State counts. Or “counts.”

So still 13 games, but no Fresno. Instead the CSU rep for this season is from way up north in Arcata.

8

Humboldt counts. If it were an exhibition they’d note it as such on the schedule.

I believe non-D1’s aren’t included in the calculus for Torvik, NET, KenPom, etc. So better to play Humboldt than a crummy SWAC team ranked ~350th.

I’ll go with 9-4, though 8-5 may be more realistic. Regardless it’s a huge WAG given such a new roster of guys who haven’t played together with many on the youngish side w/ limited D1. While there’s talent and depth on paper we have no idea how or if they’ll gel, chemistry, etc.
Will we be a collection of talented players where the individual play and talent carries us most nights or a true team where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts???

9

Let’s hope for the latter. Last season’s team seemed to be less than the sum of its parts. Less frustration would be nice.

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10

As Santa Clara gears up for the 2025–26 season, there’s a quiet but growing sense of intrigue around this team. The Broncos have plenty of potential — a roster filled with unproven talent from power conferences and an exciting incoming recruiting class — but the same can be said for many of their non-conference opponents.

That’s the fascinating part of this schedule: nearly every opponent is undergoing its own transformation. With so much roster turnover and coaching change across the board, it’s difficult to measure tangible outcomes this early. But looking at each matchup, there’s reason to believe Santa Clara can set itself up well heading into conference play.

11/7 – McNeese State

McNeese State loses both its head coach and key contributors from last season. With that kind of turnover, the Broncos should be well-positioned to open with a win.

11/10 – @ Xavier

Xavier is starting completely fresh — they return zero minutes from last year’s roster. While the Musketeers still carry name-brand recognition, this version is a total unknown. Early in the season, Santa Clara’s cohesion (even if still forming) could be enough to pull an upset.

11/15 – Nevada

Nevada looks significantly weaker this year after losing their big man to the portal and Kobe Sanders to the draft. Last season’s loss to UNR felt more self-inflicted than anything — the Broncos’ lack of preparation showed. This time around, expect a much tighter performance and a realistic chance at redemption.

11/18 – Idaho State / 11/21 – Louisiana

Both of these are manageable games that should give Santa Clara valuable opportunities to find rhythm and rotation consistency. Wins are well within reach here.

11/27 – St. Louis (Acrisure Event, Palm Desert)

Santa Clara handled the Billikens comfortably last year, even with big man Robbie anchoring the middle. St. Louis’ guards simply couldn’t match Santa Clara’s pace — and that dynamic should hold true again.

11/28 – Minnesota or Stanford (Acrisure Event, Palm Desert)

Minnesota has turned over its coaching staff and several key contributors, so this feels like a very winnable matchup. Stanford, while typically disciplined, hasn’t fully rebuilt its depth yet. Either way, this is another chance for the Broncos to build résumé momentum.

12/3 – Utah Tech

Utah Tech will likely be overmatched. This one should be another confidence-building performance.

12/6 – @ New Mexico

New Mexico is in flux as well — their coach moved on, bringing several players with him, while star guard Donovan Dent transferred to UCLA. The Lobos’ identity is still forming, making this a toss-up game but one the Broncos can absolutely steal on the road.

12/13 – Arizona State (Las Vegas)

The Broncos haven’t fared well in Vegas historically, and ASU remains a tricky matchup. That said, this year’s Sun Devils are also young and untested, replenished with a large freshman class. Expect a scrappy, unpredictable game.

12/17 – North Texas (Santa Cruz)

Normally, North Texas would be a concern — their gritty defense and turnover creation have been their calling card. But this version of the Mean Green has been gutted, which opens the door for Santa Clara to dictate tempo and control the boards.

12/20 – Loyola Chicago (Santa Cruz)

Loyola will be tough. Despite a new coach and a blend of inexperienced returners and power-conference transfers, they’re always well-coached and disciplined. This one could go either way and should serve as a good late-December test.

Big Picture

It’s rare to see a schedule where almost every opponent is in some form of transition — and that’s exactly what makes this non-conference slate so interesting. The Broncos’ own youth and new pieces will have growing pains, but the parity across the schedule gives them a real chance to establish momentum before WCC play.

Ceiling: 9–4

Floor: 7–6

If the Broncos can find early chemistry and consistency, this could be one of the more quietly promising non-conference campaigns we’ve seen from Santa Clara in recent years.

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11

Great breakdown Kev. Sign of the times with the massive annual movement of players.

It COULD help us that our opponents are dealing with the some of the same challenges we are….new roster, chemistry, defining roles/rotations, etc.
And given all that plus the change in coaching for some of the opponents means it will be difficult to scout and game plan for the first several games (McNeese, Xavier, Nevada) with limited to no tape and track record. Game plans may be vanilla to start but key may be whether the coaching staff can adapt on the fly mid-game and make adjustments as needed to D, ball screen coverage, defensive matchups, offensive sets and pull the right levers in PT and lineups. Not easy but how a coach handles all that is the difference between mediocre/good coaches vs. great coaches.

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12

Direct question to you: which one is HS?