'25-'26 WCC Game #10: San Francisco

Game Preview/Recap
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Tip-off: Wednesday, 8pm in the Leavey Center
TV: CBS Sports Network
Line: Torvik: Broncos -11.6, 86% win probability; ESPN: Broncos -9.5, 73% win probability
Over/Under: 150.5
Torvik: Broncos #34, Dons #101
(Broncos #38, Dons #113 over Last 10 Games)

USF
[Quick Aside: The nature of being a bubble team in the WCC means that every game from here on out has some outsized significance until either SCU plays its way into a total NCAA Tournament lock (unlikely) or SCU loses a bad game that knocks them totally out of the running. So as long as the Broncos keep winning, every preview will have some inevitably repetitive language about how such-and-such game is critical, can’t-lose, essential for SCU’s hopes, etc. We will do our best around here to actually tease out the unique nature of each game going forward while also having to bend to the unavoidable parade of Sendek-isms that “the most important game is the next one we play.”]

The Broncos really don’t like the Dons. And I feel much obliged that the Dons really don’t like the Broncos. This is the stuff of a resurgent rivalry, the kind on which the “new” WCC will have to capitalize in order to fill the Gonzaga-shaped hole starting next season. If you are such a new Bronco fan that you don’t have a reason to want to crush USF, here’s some homework:

  • Watch this lowlight reel of Khalil Shabazz carrying his team over SCU in a double-overtime tilt in the WCC Tournament. There are rumors that SCU might have fought for an at-large if they won this game. True or not, we’ll never know because Shabazz couldn’t miss.
  • Watch this clip of SCU vs. USF at the Hilltop. Most of us know which one without clicking. There’s a bit of a Rorschach test built in here. A USF fan may (wrongly) feel that the Tongue screen was dirty. But someone truly of the red-and-white will see that it’s obvious that Marcus Williams, former USF Don currently being investigated for illegal sports betting, is the real culprit for this scuffle when he goes out of his way to shove Cam Tongue from behind.
  • This clip and write-up won’t do any justice to the game itself, but here’s USF’s highlight reel from last year’s Hilltop tilt. You won’t see Malik Thomas going 3-for-3 on FTs to tie the game with seconds left. You won’t see Tilly then missing the front end of a 1-and-1 to win the game. The Broncos led most of the game and then watched it slip away…a frequent theme in this series.
  • Someone may be able to find a press clipping of the January 29, 1977 game in which a Rambis-led SCU almost upset a Dons team that entered Toso ranked #1 in the country. That one ended 71-70 in favor of USF on a buzzer beater from Chubby Cox.

Point being (especially to any current student that might read this), USF is the rival of Santa Clara, both historic and modern. They were the kings in the Ancien Régime and continue to be a bitter opponent and thorn in SCU’s side year-after-year. Santa Clara needs this game to hold tight to its future and for pride. USF will just be happy to burn its rival’s hopes down.

Pack Leavey and beat the Dons by 45.

Likely Starters and Key Bench

Height + Position Player Name Torvik Adj. Efficiency PPG Other Stats
5-11 Point Guard Ryan Beasley 3.2 14.2 3.6 asts; 1.3 stls
6-5 Guard Legend Smiley 1.3 7.5 38.3% from 3P
6-6 Wing Tyrone Riley, III 2.8 11.9 5.3 rebs; 1.0 stls; 43.5% from 3P
6-9 Forward Junjie Wang 1.1 7.7 3.0 rebs; 37.7% from 3P
6-9 Center David Fuchs 2.0 11.3 7.1 rebs; 2 TOs
6-5 Guard Vukasin Masic 0.6 5.5 2.5 asts
6-6 Wing Veniamin Abosi 0.4 5.1 4.1 rebs
7-0 Center Guillermo Diaz Graham 1.2 5.0 3.3 rebs
6-6 Guard Mookie Cook 1.9 9.6 5.5 rebs; 41.5% from 3P

USF may be the season’s most disappointing team so far, and they aren’t even doing badly. But the preseason prognostication was that this year’s Dons would finally push for a 2nd place finish and unseat the Gaels. It was not predicted that they would be fighting for their lives with Seattle and Pacific just for the bye to the quarterfinals.

This Dons team does almost nothing at an elite level but almost everything fairly well. They defend the paint and perimeter effectively, holding opponents to low percentages from deep and close in. The physical presence of David Fuchs (rhymes with “hooks”) has been a boon for these Dons who otherwise have a bevy of bigs who prefer to fire from deep than bang down low (Wang, especially). The Dons do not go for turnovers, though, preferring to wear their opponents down, force a bad shot, and end the possession the traditional way.

USF is a fairly good rebounding team, especially at the defensive end. That said, Gonzaga, SMC, and Pacific all rank in the top-10 nationally for defensive rebounding. USF is not in that company, so the Broncos have already been tested against superior front courts and found ways to pull down offensive boards.

The Dons love the three-point shot even more than Santa Clara and convert it at a higher clip. When USF was floundering against Gonzaga, they fought back into it from beyond the arc. If you still wake up at night sweating thinking about USF guards getting hot from three, you may want some chamomile during this one. Beasley, Riley, Wang, and Cook can all light it up from deep. The Broncos will need to close out hard. SCU will dominate a game that is played in the paint but will struggle to go point-for-point with USF on threes.

USF, as ever, is a team of guards and slashing wings. Beasley is the kind of tiny, agile guard that gives Santa Clara a hard time season-after-season–think of Portland’s Foxwell just a few weeks ago. But Beasley is the key to the engine of this USF team. Without him, the ball stalls out, and USF’s good contingent of shooting guards and wings aren’t as effective creating for themselves. Shut down Beasley, and you shut down the Dons.

Look for Mahi to continue his good play and for Graves and Oboye to assert themselves down low. Ensminger showed some offensive spurts against USD–I’d like to see more still. Darlan is a physical mismatch for which USF has no answer (aside from maybe Riley) if he can just stay under control. In this game, it’s of primary importance that Knapper, Hammond, and Gavalyugov play excellent defense before worrying about the other end.

I think they guys on the team know what beating USF means. They’ll come ready. 102-57 Santa Clara. (Oh, you thought I was kidding about winning by 45…:wink: )
Mahi with 25 points. Darlan pulls down 11 boards and gets 3 blocks.

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A bold prediction by Patty….let’s hope you are right. I’ll take a less bold final score of Broncos 82. - Don’s 73.

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I like your prediction. Excited for this game. Go Broncos.

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The next five games make me so nervous, but that’s because I’m not used to having anything on the line.

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I might be a prisoner of the moment but is tomorrow night’s game the most meaningful game in Leavey history? I’m trying to think of anything else and drawing a blank. Essentially if the Broncos win they’re still in the hunt for an at large bid. If they lose their chances would be basically on life support.

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Leavey is basically Toso Pavilion with some cosmetic upgrades and a solid roof.

Do you count Toso in your question?

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I’m referring to strictly Leavey, not games played at Toso

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Gotcha.

I agree with you. This is the most important game in Leavey history, simply because SCU needs to win every regular season game (save for Gonzaga and maybe @ St. Mary’s) the rest of the way to have a chance to make it into the Tournament as an at-large.

I’ll give you a similar situation for Santa Clara when it was still name Toso. In 1995 (Nash’s junior year), the Broncos finished the non-conference schedule at 8-3, with some very good wins and a few “good” losses (like losing 80-75 @ #7 Kansas). The Pilots went into conference play with a 9-3 record, not quite as strong of a schedule but decent nonetheless.

SCU started 4-0 in WCC play, then got crushed @ Portland 72-49, putting Portland in 1st place at 5-0 (and on a 7-game win streak). SCU’s next game was hosting Portland just 6 days later. SCU responded ferociously, beating the Pilots 85-58, after which the Broncos went on a 9-game win streak (Santa Clara snuck in a game against Sac State) before dropping the final regular season game to lowly 3-10 Pepperdine in Malibu. SCU finished in first place going 12-2 in conference (21-5 overall). Portland and St. Mary’s finished tied for 2nd at 10-4 (Portland earned the tie-breaker to get the 2nd seeding).

SCU ended up losing to last-place LMU in the first round of the WCC Tournament (the tournament was actually hosted in Toso that season). Portland made it all the way to the finals before succumbing to a middling Gonzaga* squad (7-7, 21-9).

Had Portland beat SCU at Toso, SCU and Portland would’ve been tied at 11-3 and Portland would’ve finished as regular season champs by way of the head-to-head tie breaker.

A second loss to Portland, at home, would’ve catapulted the Pilots to the likely top candidate for an at-large bid. Certainly, the Broncos would’ve been left out of contention to make the Big Dance. Instead, Santa Clara was an at-large invitee as a 12 seed, ultimately losing a reasonably close first-round game 75-67 to 18th-ranked Miss St. (led by future NBA player Erick Dampier).**

At the time, and given the likely consequence of losing any hope to qualify for an at-large bid with a loss, that second game against Portland was the most important game ever at Toso Pavilion.

I’d say the Broncos are in a similar situation now - this is a must-win game against the Dons. After winning this most important Leavey game, then the next home game will bear that title!

*Side note: by winning the conference tournament and getting the auto-bid, Gonzaga earned its first trip ever to the NCAA tournament. In retrospect, it portended the Zags run of 27 straight Big Dance appearances that started in 1999.

**Side note 2: I went to that tourney site in Boise with another alumnus to watch our boys. In the second round, 1-seed UCLA played Missouri in one of the all-time great final plays to win the game by one point: https://youtu.be/eKrWAeYGRrg?si=LomzP8DzYGYwyDYK. Steve Lavin was the top assistant coach that season for the Bruins, and took over as head coach of UCLA the next year, lasting for 7 seasons before being controversially fired. My, how the might have fallen!

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Will never forget being on KSCU for the fight that started between Tongue and Williams. My best memory ever. I kid you not I still have USF staff that die laughing every time that it gets brought up.

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@TD_24 It was a great call. Well done.

I still think Cam got to the spot first. Regardless of whether it was a foul or not, Cam was trying to set a screen. It clearly wasn’t a dirty play. Williams’ reaction, however, was horribly despicable.

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The line is Broncos -9.5. I wouldn’t touch that line in a rivalry game. Over/under at 150.5.

Vegas seems to be thinking the Broncos defense will hold USF in check and that the Broncos will be slightly below average on scoring themselves.

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Dons Central, the old USF board, has been replaced with a USF Dons subreddit…

So far, they’ve managed zero comments on either of the SCU related threads… for that reason alone, we deserve to win.

I’m really happy with how active our corner of the internet has become. Unscientifically, we see to be just as if not more active that SMC’s forum, which is astounding given how good they’ve been for so long.

I can see the spires of St. Ignatius church from my windows here in Presidio Heights… don’t make me endure the ignominy of a loss to the Dons.

Also, I really enjoyed Bucket’s trip down memory lane - losing in the first round of the WCC tournament for no good reason seems embedded in this program.

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Thanks, I appreciate the kind words. I often worry I’m boring y’all with my trips down yesteryear.

For you younger Broncos, the Nash years brought a real sense of hope that SCU was building a solid foundation to possibly become a household mid-major name. Somehow, SCU squandered that window of opportunity; whereas Gonzaga seized their moment in the spotlight just a few years later to build something special.

And that 1992-96 era wasn’t the first glimmer of hope in Santa Clara history. Bronco Hoops have been blessed/cursed with a plethora of “we were so close” seasons. Like in 1968 when Santa Clara finished 22-4 and made it to the Western Region Final game, only to lose to eventual national champion UCLA. Or like 1969, when the Broncos finished the regular season with just one loss (and ranked #4 in the nation), again only to meet UCLA in the Western Region Final where they got thumped 90-52, on the way to UCLA winning its fifth national title in six years. Or the handful of times the Broncos made it to the final game of the conference tourney needing to win to get in the Dance but falling short.

It’s frustrating to be an SCU hoops fan, but I also have to be honest and say it could be much worse, like the 44 schools who have never been to the NCAA Tournament. We’ve had our chances.

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I was at that game with another 82 alum. The cal train ride down to the game was great. :clinking_beer_mugs:. The ride back, not so fun. :face_vomiting:

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Reading both school’s previews for the game, I find it funny that both SCU and USF have the all-time record at 120-117, but both schools claim that they have the 120 wins…

I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but if we can’t sell tickets to this game, are we simply doomed to have 1,200 people at every non-GU/SMC game forever? Looking at the seat map, there are entire sections of upper deck that have sold single digit tickets.

I know the 8pm tip probably doesn’t help, but it feels like in a game that can legitimately be billed as one of the most important home games in decades, we ought to be able to put some folks in the stands… frustrating.

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What’s embarrassing is when major mistakes are made in these previews.

SCU’s preview says:

BEST START TO WCC PLAY SINCE THE NASH ERA
The Broncos are off to an 8-1 start in conference play with their lone blemish coming on the road against No. 8 Gonzaga. It is their best start in league play since the 1994-95 Broncos began 12-1 and ultimately won the regular season title at 12-2. That team was the first of three consecutive squads to play in the NCAA Tournament.

The Broncos did not have three consecutive squads to play in the NCAA Tournament, nor was that 1994-95 team the first of three. That team was the second of three Broncos squads (all with Nash) in four years to make the NCAA Tournament. The Broncos had a down year in 1993-94.

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As an aside, doing my prep for the game the difference in TOs forced by these teams is significant. USF is #339 in the country in TOF/G with 9.7, 317 in SPG, and 344 in Fastbreak points, while SCU is the opposite and is top 40 nationally in TOF/G and SPG, and also have 4 more ppg on the break. Excluding last game against USD, we have had 10 or less TO in 3 of our last 4 (21, 10, 7, 7), so it could be a big difference maker for us.

On another note I also don’t get the all time series saying 120-117 for both on each set of notes. Definitely going to have to sort that one out with the SIDs before the game.

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Anyone there who can report on the crowd size? The brief clip on CBS looked merely okay but not at all what you’d want for a game of this gravity.

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Beasley is dynamic….I don’t love our matchup options on him, Knapper or Sash.

And USF matches up well vs. our top players, Hammond and Mahi with several long, athletic wings in Riley, Mookie Cook, and Legend Smiley.

Need to play a clean game, rebound well, keep our turnovers reasonable, etc.

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It’s probably our best so far this season. But woof this game is off to a bad start.

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