Skipping ahead of Pepperdine (hopefully the players don’t do the same), but wanted to give the audience a head’s up that we are under a week away from the annual takeover of War Memorial Gym. Every year since 2015 (minus COVID and 2021), we’ve had a larger and larger presence for this game with over 180 people last year. If you haven’t been, its truly one of the best games of the year on an annual basis (unless we blow another late lead like last year).
If folks haven’t made the pilgrimage to take over the Hilltop, let me assure you that it’s an amazing time and well worth it. Seeing (and hearing) the SCU contingent there each year will surely bring a lot of Christmas joy to your heart.
best game bar none, been fortunate to have been at USF the last three years. Went in '22 as a sophomore and '23 as a junior with my father, then last season with KSCU.
Absolutely my favorite environment that Santa Clara is involved in. Give me this game at War Memorial 100x over Leavey, it just becomes the best type of bounce house. Unfortunate that this will take place during winter break, student attendance will be bad on both sides I’d imagine
Tip-off: Monday, 7pm, @ the Sobrato Center. TV: ESPN+ Line: Torvik: Dons -6, 71% win probability; ESPN: 73% win probability, no line yet.
San Francisco:
The Dons are 11-3 (10-3 vs. D1 teams) and 1-0 in the WCC after beating LMU last night at home. They beat LMU by 15 but the game was close and an ugly, low scoring affair through most of the 1st half. Starters:
6-5 guard Malik Thomas (18.2pts, 3.6rebs, 2.1steals, 39% from 3)
6-2 point guard Marcus Williams (13.6pts, 3.9 assists, 47% from 3)
6-6 wing Tyrone Riley IV (10.2pts, 5.6 rebounds, 38% from 3)
7-0 center Carlton Linguard (6.8 pts, 4.1 rebs, 1 block, 26% from 3)
6-9 forward Junje Wang (6.6 pts, 3 rebs, 30% from 3)
6th man: 5-11 guard Ryan Beasley (5.8 pts, 2 assists, 32% from 3)
Starting forward Ndewedo Newbury has missed the past three games and there is internet speculation that he may be out for the season. Jang replaced him in the lineup.
The MO on USF is that they defend very well, ranked #14 on Torvik, holding teams to a low FG% on both 2 and 3 pointers while also rebounding well defensively. Guards Williams and Thomas are strong and physical and freshman wing Riley is long and athletic. Linguard’s length translates to decent rim protection.
Offensively, the Dons attempt a ton of 3’s at a rate just a hair behind the Broncos. All of their starters can make 3’s including center Linguard who has attempted more 3 pointers than 2 pointers.
Thomas has increased his scoring significantly from last season. While he shoots it well from 3 he is also aggressive at attacking the basket, finishes strong and draws a lot of contact and gets to the FT line frequently. I suspect Tyree will get the defensive assignment along with Kosy off the bench.
USF legacy Riley has had an interesting freshman season. He came out of the gates hot, scoring double figures in his first four games including games of 28 and 26 points. But he has cooled since, hitting double figures only twice in the past 10 games. But he is talented and provides good athleticism and finishes strong at the rim (16 dunks so far this season).
Williams is the steady floor general and a good 3point shooter.
The betting line and win probabilities are a reflection of USF being the home team; would be closer to pick’em on a neutral court. This isn’t a true road trip for the Broncos, they get to sleep their own beds and take the short 1 hr bus rid to SF and reflecting on the rivalry my gut reaction is there has never been a decided home court advantage in terms of results for either school.
And as the posts above suggest, there will be plenty of Bronco supporters in attendance. I’m jealous I can’t attend. Attending games at USF in college and in my 20’s are some of my favorite Bronco hoops memories.
Prediction: Broncos step up their D and the 3’s continue to fall, Broncos prevail in a heated game, 76-73.
If you look at Torvik’s ratings including the last 10 games only, SCU has a slight edge on USF even with bad defensive performances like last night. Now that’s lying with analytics a bit–it’s a little too convenient to exclude SCU’s worst games because it covers up the Broncos’ worst quality: inconsistency. Which, ironically, is the thing USF is best at the past two seasons. They can’t beat good teams but almost never lose to bad ones.
Unfortunately for USF, Santa Clara is a good team, at least analytically. And those analytics hold that Santa Clara has been playing a touch better than USF in December. Plus, SCU will have a big contingent of supporters, including yours truly helping pump the visitors. Lastly, I think that the Santa Clara players will have more edge after last year’s fracas on the Hilltop allowed USF to claw back into a game that they should have lost.
I have to think that Sendek sees the defensive lapses and won’t look past them against a team like the Dons.
78-71 Santa Clara. Mahi returns but Bryan steals the show with 21 points and 4 offensive boards. O’Neil continues to crawl back to the mean with another 3-4 night from three point land.
Watched USF LMU on Saturday… maybe it was just a one off, but the Dons looked absolutely terrible (obviously, LMU was even worse).
I’d love to see something different from Herb, but I know that’s not happening. I’d settle for a decent game that one wouldn’t mistake for NAIA play at this point. SCU has a huge talent advantage in this one.
We’ve scored 90+ for 3 straight games, that’s the first time since…. Well I’m not sure but basketball reference doesn’t show us doing it since at least 2010 (the 2009 page didn’t populate so I stopped looking).
Yes it was against three bad teams but I’ll take that offensive firepower (also without our leading scorer).
One of the biggest changes herb and Co has made, as one mentioned earlier, is the # of 3s per game. We’re taking 28 3PA pg, this is the highest under Herbs tenure - in most years we averaged about 19 or 20.
Absolutely agree that the defense needs to play more cohesively and aggressively.
It appears the coaches plan is to 3pt. shoot our way out of very poor defense. We have 2 players in the top 35 defense in the WCC (# 21 and # 35.) neither are starters.
USF, SMC, Gonzaga each have 7 players in the Top 35.
Add our lack of free throws and 3pt. Rate defense, rebounding and when the shots don’t fall we fall.
Might be why we have had little success the past eight seasons vs USF and SMC because they execute better with equal or lesser talent…
Hope tonight is different……
Will be an interesting contrast in styles tonight. USF wants to make it a rock fight. The Broncos have more overall offensive talent but USF does a much better job of defending every possession like their life depends on it. If Mahi was healthy then I thought this line would be closer to pick’em just because I think losing a reliable player like Newbury does make USF vulnerable. Their freshman O’Donnell is a very scrappy / hard nosed player on the boards but he is also 8-21 from the foul line …so please no freebies around the rim to him. Might even be analytically smart to foul him every time if they are already in the bonus.
I’ve always told Cam. Defense wins games. If our guys all played D as if their lives depended on it - we’d have a much different record right now. I’ve seen glimmers of it - but it has to be a part of who you are as a player and I don’t see that defensive killer in a lot of our guys.
I feel the coaches should focus more on defense and the give and go with the pick and roll. (Lots of lost opportunities in both those aspects of our game).
Good D is something you can control, especially on the road. If your shot isn’t falling, sometimes its all you have.
During the PEP game seemed like everyone got 3 seconds to play 1v1 or pass it around the horn. No real movement - would be great if we played to get the best possible shot every possession vs just launch shots.
Checking in from War Memorial. In position. Clocked Midwest and Zack Farmer from the Unofficial WCC Podcast in the building. Looks to be 60/40 USF to SCU fans so far. Good for the visitors.